Bayesian statistical inference loses predictive optimality when generative models are misspecified. Working within an existing coherent loss-based generalisation of Bayesian inference, we show existing Modular/Cut-model inference is coherent, and write down a new family of Semi-Modular Inference (SMI) schemes, indexed by an influence parameter, with Bayesian inference and Cut-models as special cases. We give a meta-learning criterion and estimation procedure to choose the inference scheme. This returns Bayesian inference when there is no misspecification. The framework applies naturally to Multi-modular models. Cut-model inference allows directed information flow from well-specified modules to misspecified modules, but not vice versa. An existing alternative power posterior method gives tunable but undirected control of information flow, improving prediction in some settings. In contrast, SMI allows tunable and directed information flow between modules. We illustrate our methods on two standard test cases from the literature and a motivating archaeological data set.

Modelling uncertainty arising from input-dependent label noise is an increasingly important problem. A state-of-the-art approach for classification [Kendall and Gal, 2017] places a normal distribution over the softmax logits, where the mean and variance of this distribution are learned functions of the inputs. This approach achieves impressive empirical performance but lacks theoretical justification. We show that this model is a special case of a well known and theoretically understood model studied in econometrics. Under this view the softmax over the logit distribution is a smooth approximation to an argmax, where the approximation is exact in the zero temperature limit. We further illustrate that the softmax temperature controls a bias-variance trade-off and the optimal point on this trade-off is not always found at 1.0. By tuning the softmax temperature, we achieve improved performance on well known image classification benchmarks with controlled label noise. For image segmentation, where input-dependent label noise naturally arises, we show that tuning the temperature increases the mean IoU on the PASCAL VOC and Cityscapes datasets by more than 1% over the state-of-the-art model and a strong baseline that does not model this noise source.

Predicting and modeling human behavior and finding trends within human decision-making process is a major social sciences'problem. Rock Paper Scissors (RPS) is the fundamental strategic question in many game theory problems and real-world competitions. Finding the right approach to beat a particular human opponent is challenging. Here we use Markov Chains with set chain lengths as the single AIs (artificial intelligences) to compete against humans in iterated RPS game. This is the first time that an AI algorithm is applied in RPS human competition behavior studies. We developed an architecture of multi-AI with changeable parameters to adapt to different competition strategies. We introduce a parameter "focus length" (an integer of e.g. 5 or 10) to control the speed and sensitivity for our multi-AI to adapt to the opponent's strategy change. We experimented with 52 different people, each playing 300 rounds continuously against one specific multi-AI model, and demonstrated that our strategy could win over more than 95% of human opponents.

Recent advances in wireless radio frequency (RF) energy harvesting allows sensor nodes to increase their lifespan by remotely charging their batteries. The amount of energy harvested by the nodes varies depending on their ambient environment, and proximity to the source. The lifespan of the sensor network depends on the minimum amount of energy a node can harvest in the network. It is thus important to learn the least amount of energy harvested by nodes so that the source can transmit on a frequency band that maximizes this amount. We model this learning problem as a novel stochastic Maximin Multi-Armed Bandits (Maximin MAB) problem and propose an Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) based algorithm named Maximin UCB. Maximin MAB is a generalization of standard MAB and enjoys the same performance guarantee as that of the UCB1 algorithm. Experimental results validate the performance guarantees of our algorithm.

The potential risk of AI systems unintentionally embedding and reproducing bias has attracted the attention of machine learning practitioners and society at large. As policy makers are willing to set the standards of algorithms and AI techniques, the issue on how to refine existing regulation, in order to enforce that decisions made by automated systems are fair and non-discriminatory, is again critical. Meanwhile, researchers have demonstrated that the various existing metrics for fairness are statistically mutually exclusive and the right choice mostly depends on the use case and the definition of fairness. Recognizing that the solutions for implementing fair AI are not purely mathematical but require the commitments of the stakeholders to define the desired nature of fairness, this paper proposes to draft a toolbox which helps practitioners to ensure fair AI practices. Based on the nature of the application and the available training data, but also on legal requirements and ethical, philosophical and cultural dimensions, the toolbox aims to identify the most appropriate fairness objective. This approach attempts to structure the complex landscape of fairness metrics and, therefore, makes the different available options more accessible to non-technical people. In the proven absence of a silver bullet solution for fair AI, this toolbox intends to produce the fairest AI systems possible with respect to their local context.

Decentralized multiagent planning raises many challenges, such as adaption to changing environments inexplicable by the agent's own behavior, coordination from noisy sensor inputs like lidar, cooperation without knowing other agents' intents. To address these challenges, we present hierarchical predictive planning (HPP) for decentralized multiagent navigation tasks. HPP learns prediction models for itself and other teammates, and uses the prediction models to propose and evaluate navigation goals that complete the cooperative task without explicit coordination. To learn the prediction models, HPP observes other agents' behavior and learns to maps own sensors to predicted locations of other agents. HPP then uses the cross-entropy method to iteratively propose, evaluate, and improve navigation goals, under assumption that all agents in the team share a common objective. HPP removes the need for a centralized operator (i.e. robots determine their own actions without coordinating their beliefs or plans) and can be trained and easily transferred to real world environments. The results show that HPP generalizes to new environments including real-world robot team. It is also 33x more sample efficient and performs better in complex environments compared to a baseline. The video and website for this paper can be found at https://youtu.be/-LqgfksqNH8 and https://sites.google.com/view/multiagent-hpp.

We study how to use unsupervised learning for efficient exploration in reinforcement learning with rich observations generated from a small number of latent states. We present a novel algorithmic framework that is built upon two components: an unsupervised learning algorithm and a no-regret reinforcement learning algorithm. We show that our algorithm provably finds a near-optimal policy with sample complexity polynomial in the number of latent states, which is significantly smaller than the number of possible observations. Our result gives theoretical justification to the prevailing paradigm of using unsupervised learning for efficient exploration [tang2017exploration,bellemare2016unifying].

Machine-learning (ML) models are increasingly used today in making decisions that affect real people's lives, and, because of that, there is a huge need to ensure that the models and their decisions are interpretable by their human users. Motivated by this need, there has bee a lot of interest recently in the ML community in studying Interpretable models [18]. There is currently no consensus on what interpretability means, and no benchmarks for evaluating interpretability [5, 10]. The only consensus is that simpler models such as linear regression or decision trees are considered more interpretable than complex models like, say, deep neural nets. However, two general principles for approaching interpretability have emerged in the literature that are relevant to our paper.

Aspect-based opinion mining is the task of identifying sentiment at the aspect level in opinionated text, which consists of two subtasks: aspect category extraction and sentiment polarity classification. While aspect category extraction aims to detect and categorize opinion targets such as product features, sentiment polarity classification assigns a sentiment label, i.e. positive, negative, or neutral, to each identified aspect. Supervised learning methods have been shown to deliver better accuracy for this task but they require labeled data, which is costly to obtain, especially for resource-poor languages like Vietnamese. To address this problem, we present a supervised aspect-based opinion mining method that utilizes labeled data from a foreign language (English in this case), which is translated to Vietnamese by an automated translation tool (Google Translate). Because aspects and opinions in different languages may be expressed by different words, we propose using word embeddings, in addition to other features, to reduce the vocabulary difference between the original and translated texts, thus improving the effectiveness of aspect category extraction and sentiment polarity classification processes. We also introduce an annotated corpus of aspect categories and sentiment polarities extracted from restaurant reviews in Vietnamese, and conduct a series of experiments on the corpus. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

The European Data Science & AI Awards 2020 will be a celebration and an opportunity to connect with the most talented Data Scientists and their teams from across Europe. In late September 2020, 14 Winners will be announced at a full day event & Awards hosted in Dublin, Ireland. This year we have 14 categories with some exciting new additions. The competition is open to individuals and teams working within the Data Science, Artificial Intelligence, Analytics and Machine Learning Ecosystem from across Europe. The Awards will begin accepting entries at the end of March 2020.