Coronavirus task force member Dr. Anthony Fauci weighs in on criticism over coronavirus models. Coronavirus task force member Dr. Anthony Fauci told "The Story with Martha MacCallum" Friday that he has always been skeptical of models projecting the toll of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States. "Models are only as good as the assumptions that you put into the model," Fauci. "And those assumptions that start off when you don't have very much data at all, or the data you have is uncertain, then you put these assumptions in and you get these wide ranges of calculations of what might happen." "But then as you start to accumulate data, [...] that's real data likely being influenced heavily by the mitigation programs that you put in the physical separations, when real data comes in, then data in my mind always trumps any model," Fauci added.

Deep Neural Network-based systems are now the state-of-the-art in many robotics tasks, but their application in safety-critical domains remains dangerous without formal guarantees on network robustness. Small perturbations to sensor inputs (from noise or adversarial examples) are often enough to change network-based decisions, which was recently shown to cause an autonomous vehicle to swerve into another lane. In light of these dangers, numerous algorithms have been developed as defensive mechanisms from these adversarial inputs, some of which provide formal robustness guarantees or certificates. This work leverages research on certified adversarial robustness to develop an online certified defense for deep reinforcement learning algorithms. The proposed defense computes guaranteed lower bounds on state-action values during execution to identify and choose a robust action under a worst-case deviation in input space due to possible adversaries or noise. The approach is demonstrated on a Deep Q-Network policy and is shown to increase robustness to noise and adversaries in pedestrian collision avoidance scenarios and a classic control task. This work extends our previous paper with new performance guarantees, expanded results aggregated across more scenarios, an extension into scenarios with adversarial behavior, comparisons with a more computationally expensive method, and visualizations that provide intuition about the robustness algorithm.

This paper proposes a novel method to identify unexpected structures in 2D floor plans using the concept of Bayesian Surprise. Taking into account that a person's expectation is an important aspect of the perception of space, we exploit the theory of Bayesian Surprise to robustly model expectation and thus surprise in the context of building structures. We use Isovist Analysis, which is a popular space syntax technique, to turn qualitative object attributes into quantitative environmental information. Since isovists are location-specific patterns of visibility, a sequence of isovists describes the spatial perception during a movement along multiple points in space. We then use Bayesian Surprise in a feature space consisting of these isovist readings. To demonstrate the suitability of our approach, we take "snapshots" of an agent's local environment to provide a short list of images that characterize a traversed trajectory through a 2D indoor environment. Those fingerprints represent surprising regions of a tour, characterize the traversed map and enable indoor LBS to focus more on important regions. Given this idea, we propose to use "surprise" as a new dimension of context in indoor location-based services (LBS). Agents of LBS, such as mobile robots or non-player characters in computer games, may use the context surprise to focus more on important regions of a map for a better use or understanding of the floor plan.

Despite the continuing efforts to improve the engagingness and consistency of chit-chat dialogue systems, the majority of current work simply focus on mimicking human-like responses, leaving understudied the aspects of modeling understanding between interlocutors. The research in cognitive science, instead, suggests that understanding is an essential signal for a high-quality chit-chat conversation. Motivated by this, we propose P^2 Bot, a transmitter-receiver based framework with the aim of explicitly modeling understanding. Specifically, P^2 Bot incorporates mutual persona perception to enhance the quality of personalized dialogue generation. Experiments on a large public dataset, Persona-Chat, demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, with a considerable boost over the state-of-the-art baselines across both automatic metrics and human evaluations.

Federated Learning (FL) has been recently presented as a new technique for training shared machine learning models in a distributed manner while respecting data privacy. However, implementing FL in wireless networks may significantly reduce the lifetime of energy-constrained mobile devices due to their involvement in the construction of the shared learning models. To handle this issue, we propose a novel approach at the physical layer based on the application of lightwave power transfer in the FL-based wireless network and a resource allocation scheme to manage the network's power efficiency. Hence, we formulate the corresponding optimization problem and then propose a method to obtain the optimal solution. Numerical results reveal that, the proposed scheme can provide sufficient energy to a mobile device for performing FL tasks without using any power from its own battery. Hence, the proposed approach can support the FL-based wireless network to overcome the issue of limited energy in mobile devices.

In this work, we propose a new generative model that is capable of automatically decoupling global and local representations of images in an entirely unsupervised setting. The proposed model utilizes the variational auto-encoding framework to learn a (low-dimensional) vector of latent variables to capture the global information of an image, which is fed as a conditional input to a flow-based invertible decoder with architecture borrowed from style transfer literature. Experimental results on standard image benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in terms of density estimation, image generation and unsupervised representation learning. Importantly, this work demonstrates that with only architectural inductive biases, a generative model with a plain log-likelihood objective is capable of learning decoupled representations, requiring no explicit supervision. The code for our model is available at https://github.com/XuezheMax/wolf.

Quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA) is a widely used statistical tool to classify observations from different multivariate Normal populations. The generalized quadratic discriminant analysis (GQDA) classification rule/classifier, which generalizes the QDA and the minimum Mahalanobis distance (MMD) classifiers to discriminate between populations with underlying elliptically symmetric distributions competes quite favorably with the QDA classifier when it is optimal and performs much better when QDA fails under non-Normal underlying distributions, e.g. Cauchy distribution. However, the classification rule in GQDA is based on the sample mean vector and the sample dispersion matrix of a training sample, which are extremely non-robust under data contamination. In real world, since it is quite common to face data highly vulnerable to outliers, the lack of robustness of the classical estimators of the mean vector and the dispersion matrix reduces the efficiency of the GQDA classifier significantly, increasing the misclassification errors. The present paper investigates the performance of the GQDA classifier when the classical estimators of the mean vector and the dispersion matrix used therein are replaced by various robust counterparts. Applications to various real data sets as well as simulation studies reveal far better performance of the proposed robust versions of the GQDA classifier. A Comparative study has been made to advocate the appropriate choice of the robust estimators to be used in a specific situation of the degree of contamination of the data sets.

We address the challenging problem of deep representation learning--the efficient adaption of a pre-trained deep network to different tasks. Specifically, we propose to explore gradient-based features. These features are gradients of the model parameters with respect to a task-specific loss given an input sample. Our key innovation is the design of a linear model that incorporates both gradient and activation of the pre-trained network. We show that our model provides a local linear approximation to an underlying deep model, and discuss important theoretical insights. Moreover, we present an efficient algorithm for the training and inference of our model without computing the actual gradient. Our method is evaluated across a number of representation-learning tasks on several datasets and using different network architectures. Strong results are obtained in all settings, and are well-aligned with our theoretical insights.

Selective manipulation of data attributes using deep generative models is an active area of research. In this paper, we present a novel method to structure the latent space of a Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) to encode different continuous-valued attributes explicitly. This is accomplished by using an attribute regularization loss which enforces a monotonic relationship between the attribute values and the latent code of the dimension along which the attribute is to be encoded. Consequently, post-training, the model can be used to manipulate the attribute by simply changing the latent code of the corresponding regularized dimension. The results obtained from several quantitative and qualitative experiments show that the proposed method leads to disentangled and interpretable latent spaces that can be used to effectively manipulate a wide range of data attributes spanning image and symbolic music domains.

In the years since Goodfellow et al. introduced Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) [1], there has been an explosion in the breadth and quality of generative model applications. Despite this work, GANs still have a long way to go before they see mainstream adoption, owing largely to their infamous training instability. Here I propose the Autoencoding Generative Adversarial Network (AEGAN), a four-network model which learns a bijective mapping between a specified latent space and a given sample space by applying an adversarial loss and a reconstruction loss to both the generated images and the generated latent vectors. The AEGAN technique offers several improvements to typical GAN training, including training stabilization, mode-collapse prevention, and permitting the direct interpolation between real samples. The effectiveness of the technique is illustrated using an anime face dataset.