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Applications of shapelet transform to time series classification of earthquake, wind and wave data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Autonomous detection of desired events from large databases using time series classification is becoming increasingly important in civil engineering as a result of continued long-term health monitoring of a large number of engineering structures encompassing buildings, bridges, towers, and offshore platforms. In this context, this paper proposes the application of a relatively new time series representation named "Shapelet transform", which is based on local similarity in the shape of the time series subsequences. In consideration of the individual attributes distinctive to time series signals in earthquake, wind and ocean engineering, the application of this transform yields a new shape-based feature representation. Combining this shape-based representation with a standard machine learning algorithm, a truly "white-box" machine learning model is proposed with understandable features and a transparent algorithm. This model automates event detection without the intervention of domain practitioners, yielding a practical event detection procedure. The efficacy of this proposed shapelet transform-based autonomous detection procedure is demonstrated by examples, to identify known and unknown earthquake events from continuously recorded ground-motion measurements, to detect pulses in the velocity time history of ground motions to distinguish between near-field and far-field ground motions, to identify thunderstorms from continuous wind speed measurements, to detect large-amplitude wind-induced vibrations from the bridge monitoring data, and to identify plunging breaking waves that have a significant impact on offshore structures.


Learning Sampling and Model-Based Signal Recovery for Compressed Sensing MRI

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Compressed sensing (CS) MRI relies on adequate undersampling of the k-space to accelerate the acquisition without compromising image quality. Consequently, the design of optimal sampling patterns for these k-space coefficients has received significant attention, with many CS MRI methods exploiting variable-density probability distributions. Realizing that an optimal sampling pattern may depend on the downstream task (e.g. image reconstruction, segmentation, or classification), we here propose joint learning of both task-adaptive k-space sampling and a subsequent model-based proximal-gradient recovery network. The former is enabled through a probabilistic generative model that leverages the Gumbel-softmax relaxation to sample across trainable beliefs while maintaining differentiability. The proposed combination of a highly flexible sampling model and a model-based (sampling-adaptive) image reconstruction network facilitates exploration and efficient training, yielding improved MR image quality compared to other sampling baselines.


Tactical Decision-Making in Autonomous Driving by Reinforcement Learning with Uncertainty Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning (RL) can be used to create a tactical decision-making agent for autonomous driving. However, previous approaches only output decisions and do not provide information about the agent's confidence in the recommended actions. This paper investigates how a Bayesian RL technique, based on an ensemble of neural networks with additional randomized prior functions (RPF), can be used to estimate the uncertainty of decisions in autonomous driving. A method for classifying whether or not an action should be considered safe is also introduced. The performance of the ensemble RPF method is evaluated by training an agent on a highway driving scenario. It is shown that the trained agent can estimate the uncertainty of its decisions and indicate an unacceptable level when the agent faces a situation that is far from the training distribution. Furthermore, within the training distribution, the ensemble RPF agent outperforms a standard Deep Q-Network agent. In this study, the estimated uncertainty is used to choose safe actions in unknown situations. However, the uncertainty information could also be used to identify situations that should be added to the training process.


Risk Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission from Bluetooth Low Energy Measurements

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Digital contact tracing approaches based on Bluetooth low energy (BLE) have the potential to efficiently contain and delay outbreaks of infectious diseases such as the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In this work we propose a novel machine learning based approach to reliably detect subjects that have spent enough time in close proximity to be at risk of being infected. Our study is an important proof of concept that will aid the battery of epidemiological policies aiming to slow down the rapid spread of COVID-19.


Pattern-based Long Short-term Memory for Mid-term Electrical Load Forecasting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This work presents a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network for forecasting a monthly electricity demand time series with a one-year horizon. The novelty of this work is the use of pattern representation of the seasonal time series as an alternative to decomposition. Pattern representation simplifies the complex nonlinear and nonstationary time series, filtering out the trend and equalizing variance. Two types of patterns are defined: x-pattern and y-pattern. The former requires additional forecasting for the coding variables. The latter determines the coding variables from the process history. A hybrid approach based on x-patterns turned out to be more accurate than the standard LSTM approach based on a raw time series. In this combined approach an x-pattern is forecasted using a sequence-to-sequence LSTM network and the coding variables are forecasted using exponential smoothing. A simulation study performed on the monthly electricity demand time series for 35 European countries confirmed the high performance of the proposed model and its competitiveness to classical models such as ARIMA and exponential smoothing as well as the MLP neural network model.


Optimization Approaches for Counterfactual Risk Minimization with Continuous Actions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Counterfactual reasoning from logged data has become increasingly important for a large range of applications such as web advertising or healthcare. In this paper, we address the problem of counterfactual risk minimization for learning a stochastic policy with a continuous action space. Whereas previous works have mostly focused on deriving statistical estimators with importance sampling, we show that the optimization perspective is equally important for solving the resulting nonconvex optimization problems.Specifically, we demonstrate the benefits of proximal point algorithms and soft-clipping estimators which are more amenable to gradient-based optimization than classical hard clipping. We propose multiple synthetic, yet realistic, evaluation setups, and we release a new large-scale dataset based on web advertising data for this problem that is crucially missing public benchmarks.


Neural Network Laundering: Removing Black-Box Backdoor Watermarks from Deep Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Creating a state-of-the-art deep-learning system requires vast amounts of data, expertise, and hardware, yet research into embedding copyright protection for neural networks has been limited. One of the main methods for achieving such protection involves relying on the susceptibility of neural networks to backdoor attacks, but the robustness of these tactics has been primarily evaluated against pruning, fine-tuning, and model inversion attacks. In this work, we propose a neural network "laundering" algorithm to remove black-box backdoor watermarks from neural networks even when the adversary has no prior knowledge of the structure of the watermark. We are able to effectively remove watermarks used for recent defense or copyright protection mechanisms while achieving test accuracies above 97% and 80% for both MNIST and CIFAR-10, respectively. For all backdoor watermarking methods addressed in this paper, we find that the robustness of the watermark is significantly weaker than the original claims. We also demonstrate the feasibility of our algorithm in more complex tasks as well as in more realistic scenarios where the adversary is able to carry out efficient laundering attacks using less than 1% of the original training set size, demonstrating that existing backdoor watermarks are not sufficient to reach their claims.


Constructing Geographic and Long-term Temporal Graph for Traffic Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traffic forecasting influences various intelligent transportation system (ITS) services and is of great significance for user experience as well as urban traffic control. It is challenging due to the fact that the road network contains complex and time-varying spatial-temporal dependencies. Recently, deep learning based methods have achieved promising results by adopting graph convolutional network (GCN) to extract the spatial correlations and recurrent neural network (RNN) to capture the temporal dependencies. However, the existing methods often construct the graph only based on road network connectivity, which limits the interaction between roads. In this work, we propose Geographic and Long term Temporal Graph Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network (GLT-GCRNN), a novel framework for traffic forecasting that learns the rich interactions between roads sharing similar geographic or longterm temporal patterns. Extensive experiments on a real-world traffic state dataset validate the effectiveness of our method by showing that GLT-GCRNN outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in terms of different metrics.


Cooperative Perception with Deep Reinforcement Learning for Connected Vehicles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sensor-based perception on vehicles are becoming prevalent and important to enhance the road safety. Autonomous driving systems use cameras, LiDAR, and radar to detect surrounding objects, while human-driven vehicles use them to assist the driver. However, the environmental perception by individual vehicles has the limitations on coverage and/or detection accuracy. For example, a vehicle cannot detect objects occluded by other moving/static obstacles. In this paper, we present a cooperative perception scheme with deep reinforcement learning to enhance the detection accuracy for the surrounding objects. By using the deep reinforcement learning to select the data to transmit, our scheme mitigates the network load in vehicular communication networks and enhances the communication reliability. To design, test, and verify the cooperative perception scheme, we develop a Cooperative & Intelligent Vehicle Simulation (CIVS) Platform, which integrates three software components: traffic simulator, vehicle simulator, and object classifier. We evaluate that our scheme decreases packet loss and thereby increases the detection accuracy by up to 12%, compared to the baseline protocol.


Flexible and Efficient Long-Range Planning Through Curious Exploration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Identifying algorithms that flexibly and efficiently discover temporally-extended multi-phase plans is an essential step for the advancement of robotics and model-based reinforcement learning. The core problem of long-range planning is finding an efficient way to search through the tree of possible action sequences. Existing non-learned planning solutions from the Task and Motion Planning (TAMP) literature rely on the existence of logical descriptions for the effects and preconditions for actions. This constraint allows TAMP methods to efficiently reduce the tree search problem but limits their ability to generalize to unseen and complex physical environments. In contrast, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) methods use flexible neural-network-based function approximators to discover policies that generalize naturally to unseen circumstances. However, DRL methods struggle to handle the very sparse reward landscapes inherent to long-range multi-step planning situations. Here, we propose the Curious Sample Planner (CSP), which fuses elements of TAMP and DRL by combining a curiosity-guided sampling strategy with imitation learning to accelerate planning. We show that CSP can efficiently discover interesting and complex temporally-extended plans for solving a wide range of physically realistic 3D tasks. In contrast, standard planning and learning methods often fail to solve these tasks at all or do so only with a huge and highly variable number of training samples. We explore the use of a variety of curiosity metrics with CSP and analyze the types of solutions that CSP discovers. Finally, we show that CSP supports task transfer so that the exploration policies learned during experience with one task can help improve efficiency on related tasks.