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Whose coronavirus strategy worked best? Scientists hunt most effective policies

Nature

Scientists are scrambling to work out what effect specific measures, such as social distancing, have in slowing the spread of COVID-19.Credit: Ivan Romano/Getty Hong Kong seems to have given the world a lesson in how to effectively curb COVID-19. With a population of 7.5 million, it has reported just 4 deaths. Researchers studying Hong Kong's approach have already found that swift surveillance, quarantine and social-distancing measures, such as the use of face masks and school closures, helped to cut coronavirus transmission -- measured by the average number of people each infected person infects, or R -- to close to the critical level of 1 by early February. Working out the effectiveness of the unprecedented measures implemented worldwide to limit the spread of the coronavirus is now one of scientists' most pressing questions. Researchers hope that, ultimately, they will be able to accurately predict how adding and removing control measures affects transmission rates and infection numbers.


RotEqNet: Rotation-Equivariant Network for Fluid Systems with Symmetric High-Order Tensors

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In the recent application of scientific modeling, machine learning models are largely applied to facilitate computational simulations of fluid systems. Rotation symmetry is a general property for most symmetric fluid systems. However, in general, current machine learning methods have no theoretical way to guarantee rotational symmetry. By observing an important property of contraction and rotation operation on high-order symmetric tensors, we prove that the rotation operation is preserved via tensor contraction. Based on this theoretical justification, in this paper, we introduce Rotation-Equivariant Network (RotEqNet) to guarantee the property of rotation-equivariance for high-order tensors in fluid systems. We implement RotEqNet and evaluate our claims through four case studies on various fluid systems. The property of error reduction and rotation-equivariance is verified in these case studies. Results from the comparative study show that our method outperforms conventional methods, which rely on data augmentation.


Multivariate Confidence Calibration for Object Detection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Unbiased confidence estimates of neural networks are crucial especially for safety-critical applications. Many methods have been developed to calibrate biased confidence estimates. Though there is a variety of methods for classification, the field of object detection has not been addressed yet. Therefore, we present a novel framework to measure and calibrate biased (or miscalibrated) confidence estimates of object detection methods. The main difference to related work in the field of classifier calibration is that we also use additional information of the regression output of an object detector for calibration. Our approach allows, for the first time, to obtain calibrated confidence estimates with respect to image location and box scale. In addition, we propose a new measure to evaluate miscalibration of object detectors. Finally, we show that our developed methods outperform state-of-the-art calibration models for the task of object detection and provides reliable confidence estimates across different locations and scales.


An Unsupervised Semantic Sentence Ranking Scheme for Text Documents

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper presents Semantic SentenceRank (SSR), an unsupervised scheme for automatically ranking sentences in a single document according to their relative importance. In particular, SSR extracts essential words and phrases from a text document, and uses semantic measures to construct, respectively, a semantic phrase graph over phrases and words, and a semantic sentence graph over sentences. It applies two variants of article-structure-biased PageRank to score phrases and words on the first graph and sentences on the second graph. It then combines these scores to generate the final score for each sentence. Finally, SSR solves a multi-objective optimization problem for ranking sentences based on their final scores and topic diversity through semantic subtopic clustering. An implementation of SSR that runs in quadratic time is presented, and it outperforms, on the SummBank benchmarks, each individual judge's ranking and compares favorably with the combined ranking of all judges.


Memory Augmented Neural Model for Incremental Session-based Recommendation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Increasing concerns with privacy have stimulated interests in Session-based Recommendation (SR) using no personal data other than what is observed in the current browser session. Existing methods are evaluated in static settings which rarely occur in real-world applications. To better address the dynamic nature of SR tasks, we study an incremental SR scenario, where new items and preferences appear continuously. We show that existing neural recommenders can be used in incremental SR scenarios with small incremental updates to alleviate computation overhead and catastrophic forgetting. More importantly, we propose a general framework called Memory Augmented Neural model (MAN). MAN augments a base neural recommender with a continuously queried and updated nonparametric memory, and the predictions from the neural and the memory components are combined through another lightweight gating network. We empirically show that MAN is well-suited for the incremental SR task, and it consistently outperforms state-of-the-art neural and nonparametric methods. We analyze the results and demonstrate that it is particularly good at incrementally learning preferences on new and infrequent items.


Automatic Cross-Replica Sharding of Weight Update in Data-Parallel Training

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In data-parallel synchronous training of deep neural networks, different devices (replicas) run the same program with different partitions of the training batch, but weight update computation is repeated on all replicas, because the weights do not have a batch dimension to partition. This can be a bottleneck for performance and scalability in typical language models with large weights, and models with small per-replica batch size which is typical in large-scale training. This paper presents an approach to automatically shard the weight update computation across replicas with efficient communication primitives and data formatting, using static analysis and transformations on the training computation graph. We show this technique achieves substantial speedups on typical image and language models on Cloud TPUs, requiring no change to model code. This technique helps close the gap between traditionally expensive (ADAM) and cheap (SGD) optimizers, as they will only take a small part of training step time and have similar peak memory usage. It helped us to achieve state-of-the-art training performance in Google's MLPerf 0.6 submission.


Scan-based Semantic Segmentation of LiDAR Point Clouds: An Experimental Study

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Autonomous vehicles need to have a semantic understanding of the three-dimensional world around them in order to reason about their environment. State of the art methods use deep neural networks to predict semantic classes for each point in a LiDAR scan. A powerful and efficient way to process LiDAR measurements is to use two-dimensional, image-like projections. In this work, we perform a comprehensive experimental study of image-based semantic segmentation architectures for LiDAR point clouds. We demonstrate various techniques to boost the performance and to improve runtime as well as memory constraints. First, we examine the effect of network size and suggest that much faster inference times can be achieved at a very low cost to accuracy. Next, we introduce an improved point cloud projection technique that does not suffer from systematic occlusions. We use a cyclic padding mechanism that provides context at the horizontal field-of-view boundaries. In a third part, we perform experiments with a soft Dice loss function that directly optimizes for the intersection-over-union metric. Finally, we propose a new kind of convolution layer with a reduced amount of weight-sharing along one of the two spatial dimensions, addressing the large difference in appearance along the vertical axis of a LiDAR scan. We propose a final set of the above methods with which the model achieves an increase of 3.2% in mIoU segmentation performance over the baseline while requiring only 42% of the original inference time.


Perturb More, Trap More: Understanding Behaviors of Graph Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

While graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown a great potential in various tasks on graph, the lack of transparency has hindered understanding how GNNs arrived at its predictions. Although few explainers for GNNs are explored, the consideration of local fidelity, indicating how the model behaves around an instance should be predicted, is neglected. In this paper, we first propose a novel post-hoc framework based on local fidelity for any trained GNNs - TraP2, which can generate a high-fidelity explanation. Considering that both relevant graph structure and important features inside each node need to be highlighted, a three-layer architecture in TraP2 is designed: i) interpretation domain are defined by Translation layer in advance; ii) local predictive behavior of GNNs being explained are probed and monitored by Perturbation layer, in which multiple perturbations for graph structure and feature-level are conducted in interpretation domain; iii) high faithful explanations are generated by fitting the local decision boundary through Paraphrase layer. Finally, TraP2 is evaluated on six benchmark datasets based on five desired attributions: accuracy, fidelity, decisiveness, insight and inspiration, which achieves $10.2\%$ higher explanation accuracy than the state-of-the-art methods.


On the Neural Tangent Kernel of Deep Networks with Orthogonal Initialization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In recent years, a critical initialization scheme of orthogonal initialization on deep nonlinear networks has been proposed. The orthogonal weights are crucial to achieve {\it dynamical isometry} for random networks, where the entire spectrum of singular values of an input-output Jacobian are around one. The strong empirical evidence that orthogonal initialization in linear networks and the linear regime of nonlinear networks can speed up training than Gaussian initialization raise great interests. One recent work has proven the benefit of orthogonal initialization in linear networks. However, the dynamics behind it have not been revealed on nonlinear networks. In this work, we study the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK), which can describe dynamics of gradient descent training of wide network, and focus on fully-connected and nonlinear networks with orthogonal initialization. We prove that NTK of Gaussian and orthogonal weights are equal when the network width is infinite, resulting in a conclusion that orthogonal initialization can speed up training is a finite-width effect in the small learning rate regime. Then we find that during training, the NTK of infinite-width network with orthogonal initialization stays constant theoretically and varies at a rate of the same order as Gaussian ones empirically, as the width tends to infinity. Finally, we conduct a thorough empirical investigation of training speed on CIFAR10 datasets and show the benefit of orthogonal initialization lies in the large learning rate and depth phase in a linear regime of nonlinear network.


Injured hornbill found in Thailand can eat again after vets fit a new beak made with a 3D printer

Daily Mail - Science & tech

An injured hornbill that was found in Thailand with part of its beak snapped off can now eat again after vets fitted it with a replacement made using a 3D printer. The adult bird -- dubbed'Coco' -- was found sprawled on the ground with a broken wing and its lower bill missing in Kanchanaburi, western Thailand, on April 18. Wildlife officers are unsure how Coco was injured, but believe that she may have been shot or attacked by hunters or poachers and then left for dead in the forest. Although veterinarians were able to give urgent care and stabilise the bird, they were sadly unable to find its missing bill in order to reattach it. Realising it would be impossible for Coco to eat without her signature long bill, they scanned her body and used 3D printing technology to create plastic replacements.