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Tell Me Something I Don't Know: Randomization Strategies for Iterative Data Mining
Hanhijärvi, Sami, Ojala, Markus, Vuokko, Niko, Puolamäki, Kai, Tatti, Nikolaj, Mannila, Heikki
There is a wide variety of data mining methods available, and it is generally useful in exploratory data analysis to use many different methods for the same dataset. This, however, leads to the problem of whether the results found by one method are a reflection of the phenomenon shown by the results of another method, or whether the results depict in some sense unrelated properties of the data. For example, using clustering can give indication of a clear cluster structure, and computing correlations between variables can show that there are many significant correlations in the data. However, it can be the case that the correlations are actually determined by the cluster structure. In this paper, we consider the problem of randomizing data so that previously discovered patterns or models are taken into account. The randomization methods can be used in iterative data mining. At each step in the data mining process, the randomization produces random samples from the set of data matrices satisfying the already discovered patterns or models. That is, given a data set and some statistics (e.g., cluster centers or co-occurrence counts) of the data, the randomization methods sample data sets having similar values of the given statistics as the original data set. We use Metropolis sampling based on local swaps to achieve this. We describe experiments on real data that demonstrate the usefulness of our approach. Our results indicate that in many cases, the results of, e.g., clustering actually imply the results of, say, frequent pattern discovery.
Consistent Recalibration Models and Deep Calibration
Gambara, Matteo, Teichmann, Josef
Consistent Recalibration models (CRC) have been introduced to capture in necessary generality the dynamic features of term structures of derivatives' prices. Several approaches have been suggested to tackle this problem, but all of them, including CRC models, suffered from numerical intractabilities mainly due to the presence of complicated drift terms or consistency conditions. We overcome this problem by machine learning techniques, which allow to store the crucial drift term's information in neural network type functions. This yields first time dynamic term structure models which can be efficiently simulated.
Real-Time Regression with Dividing Local Gaussian Processes
Lederer, Armin, Conejo, Alejandro Jose Ordonez, Maier, Korbinian, Xiao, Wenxin, Hirche, Sandra
The increased demand for online prediction and the growing availability of large data sets drives the need for computationally efficient models. While exact Gaussian process regression shows various favorable theoretical properties (uncertainty estimate, unlimited expressive power), the poor scaling with respect to the training set size prohibits its application in big data regimes in real-time. Therefore, this paper proposes dividing local Gaussian processes, which are a novel, computationally efficient modeling approach based on Gaussian process regression. Due to an iterative, data-driven division of the input space, they achieve a sublinear computational complexity in the total number of training points in practice, while providing excellent predictive distributions. A numerical evaluation on real-world data sets shows their advantages over other state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy as well as prediction and update speed.
Off-policy Bandits with Deficient Support
Sachdeva, Noveen, Su, Yi, Joachims, Thorsten
Learning effective contextual-bandit policies from past actions of a deployed system is highly desirable in many settings (e.g. voice assistants, recommendation, search), since it enables the reuse of large amounts of log data. State-of-the-art methods for such off-policy learning, however, are based on inverse propensity score (IPS) weighting. A key theoretical requirement of IPS weighting is that the policy that logged the data has "full support", which typically translates into requiring non-zero probability for any action in any context. Unfortunately, many real-world systems produce support deficient data, especially when the action space is large, and we show how existing methods can fail catastrophically. To overcome this gap between theory and applications, we identify three approaches that provide various guarantees for IPS-based learning despite the inherent limitations of support-deficient data: restricting the action space, reward extrapolation, and restricting the policy space. We systematically analyze the statistical and computational properties of these three approaches, and we empirically evaluate their effectiveness. In addition to providing the first systematic analysis of support-deficiency in contextual-bandit learning, we conclude with recommendations that provide practical guidance.
A One-Pass Private Sketch for Most Machine Learning Tasks
Coleman, Benjamin, Shrivastava, Anshumali
Differential privacy (DP) is a compelling privacy definition that explains the privacy-utility tradeoff via formal, provable guarantees. Inspired by recent progress toward general-purpose data release algorithms, we propose a private sketch, or small summary of the dataset, that supports a multitude of machine learning tasks including regression, classification, density estimation, near-neighbor search, and more. Our sketch consists of randomized contingency tables that are indexed with locality-sensitive hashing and constructed with an efficient one-pass algorithm. We prove competitive error bounds for DP kernel density estimation. Existing methods for DP kernel density estimation scale poorly, often exponentially slower with an increase in dimensions. In contrast, our sketch can quickly run on large, high-dimensional datasets in a single pass. Exhaustive experiments show that our generic sketch delivers a similar privacy-utility tradeoff when compared to existing DP methods at a fraction of the computation cost. We expect that our sketch will enable differential privacy in distributed, large-scale machine learning settings.
Understanding and mitigating exploding inverses in invertible neural networks
Behrmann, Jens, Vicol, Paul, Wang, Kuan-Chieh, Grosse, Roger, Jacobsen, Jörn-Henrik
Invertible neural networks (INNs) have been used to design generative models, implement memory-saving gradient computation, and solve inverse problems. In this work, we show that commonly-used INN architectures suffer from exploding inverses and are thus prone to becoming numerically non-invertible. Across a wide range of INN use-cases, we reveal failures including the non-applicability of the change-of-variables formula on in- and out-of-distribution (OOD) data, incorrect gradients for memory-saving backprop, and the inability to sample from normalizing flow models. We further derive bi-Lipschitz properties of atomic building blocks of common architectures. These insights into the stability of INNs then provide ways forward to remedy these failures. For tasks where local invertibility is sufficient, like memory-saving backprop, we propose a flexible and efficient regularizer. For problems where global invertibility is necessary, such as applying normalizing flows on OOD data, we show the importance of designing stable INN building blocks.
A Survey of Constrained Gaussian Process Regression: Approaches and Implementation Challenges
Swiler, Laura, Gulian, Mamikon, Frankel, Ari, Safta, Cosmin, Jakeman, John
Gaussian process regression is a popular Bayesian framework for surrogate modeling of expensive data sources. As part of a broader effort in scientific machine learning, many recent works have incorporated physical constraints or other a priori information within Gaussian process regression to supplement limited data and regularize the behavior of the model. We provide an overview and survey of several classes of Gaussian process constraints, including positivity or bound constraints, monotonicity and convexity constraints, differential equation constraints provided by linear PDEs, and boundary condition constraints. We compare the strategies behind each approach as well as the differences in implementation, concluding with a discussion of the computational challenges introduced by constraints.
Hausdorff Dimension, Stochastic Differential Equations, and Generalization in Neural Networks
Şimşekli, Umut, Sener, Ozan, Deligiannidis, George, Erdogdu, Murat A.
Despite its success in a wide range of applications, characterizing the generalization properties of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in non-convex deep learning problems is still an important challenge. While modeling the trajectories of SGD via stochastic differential equations (SDE) under heavy-tailed gradient noise has recently shed light over several peculiar characteristics of SGD, a rigorous treatment of the generalization properties of such SDEs in a learning theoretical framework is still missing. Aiming to bridge this gap, in this paper, we prove generalization bounds for SGD under the assumption that its trajectories can be well-approximated by a Feller process, which defines a rich class of Markov processes that include several recent SDE representations (both Brownian or heavy-tailed) as its special case. We show that the generalization error can be controlled by the Hausdorff dimension of the trajectories, which is intimately linked to the tail behavior of the driving process. Our results imply that heavier-tailed processes should achieve better generalization; hence, the tail-index of the process can be used as a notion of ``capacity metric''. We support our theory with experiments on deep neural networks illustrating that the proposed capacity metric accurately estimates the generalization error, and it does not necessarily grow with the number of parameters unlike the existing capacity metrics in the literature.
Primal Dual Interpretation of the Proximal Stochastic Gradient Langevin Algorithm
We consider the task of sampling with respect to a log concave probability distribution. The potential of the target distribution is assumed to be composite, i.e., written as the sum of a smooth convex term, and a nonsmooth convex term possibly taking infinite values. The target distribution can be seen as a minimizer of the Kullback-Leibler divergence defined on the Wasserstein space (i.e., the space of probability measures). In the first part of this paper, we establish a strong duality result for this minimization problem. In the second part of this paper, we use the duality gap arising from the first part to study the complexity of the Proximal Stochastic Gradient Langevin Algorithm (PSGLA), which can be seen as a generalization of the Projected Langevin Algorithm. Our approach relies on viewing PSGLA as a primal dual algorithm and covers many cases where the target distribution is not fully supported. In particular, we show that if the potential is strongly convex, the complexity of PSGLA is $\cO(1/\varepsilon^2)$ in terms of the 2-Wasserstein distance. In contrast, the complexity of the Projected Langevin Algorithm is $\cO(1/\varepsilon^{12})$ in terms of total variation when the potential is convex.
Discovering outstanding subgroup lists for numeric targets using MDL
Proença, Hugo M., Grünwald, Peter, Bäck, Thomas, van Leeuwen, Matthijs
The task of subgroup discovery (SD) is to find interpretable descriptions of subsets of a dataset that stand out with respect to a target attribute. To address the problem of mining large numbers of redundant subgroups, subgroup set discovery (SSD) has been proposed. State-of-the-art SSD methods have their limitations though, as they typically heavily rely on heuristics and/or user-chosen hyperparameters. We propose a dispersion-aware problem formulation for subgroup set discovery that is based on the minimum description length (MDL) principle and subgroup lists. We argue that the best subgroup list is the one that best summarizes the data given the overall distribution of the target. We restrict our focus to a single numeric target variable and show that our formalization coincides with an existing quality measure when finding a single subgroup, but that-in addition-it allows to trade off subgroup quality with the complexity of the subgroup. We next propose SSD++, a heuristic algorithm for which we empirically demonstrate that it returns outstanding subgroup lists: non-redundant sets of compact subgroups that stand out by having strongly deviating means and small spread.