Time series prediction has been a long-standing research topic and an essential application in many domains. Modern time series collected from sensor networks (e.g., energy consumption and traffic flow) are often large-scale and incomplete with considerable corruption and missing values, making it difficult to perform accurate predictions. In this paper, we propose a low-rank autoregressive tensor completion (LATC) framework to model multivariate time series data. The key of LATC is to transform the original multivariate time series matrix (e.g., sensor$\times$time point) to a third-order tensor structure (e.g., sensor$\times$time of day$\times$day) by introducing an additional temporal dimension, which allows us to model the inherent rhythms and seasonality of time series as global patterns. With the tensor structure, we can transform the time series prediction and missing data imputation problems into a universal low-rank tensor completion problem. Besides minimizing tensor rank, we also integrate a novel autoregressive norm on the original matrix representation into the objective function. The two components serve different roles. The low-rank structure allows us to effectively capture the global consistency and trends across all the three dimensions (i.e., similarity among sensors, similarity of different days, and current time v.s. the same time of historical days). The autoregressive norm can better model the local temporal trends. Our numerical experiments on three real-world data sets demonstrate the superiority of the integration of global and local trends in LATC in both missing data imputation and rolling prediction tasks.

Training models with discrete latent variables is challenging due to the difficulty of estimating the gradients accurately. Much of the recent progress has been achieved by taking advantage of continuous relaxations of the system, which are not always available or even possible. The Augment-REINFORCE-Merge (ARM) estimator provides an alternative that, instead of relaxation, uses continuous augmentation. Applying antithetic sampling over the augmenting variables yields a relatively low-variance and unbiased estimator applicable to any model with binary latent variables. However, while antithetic sampling reduces variance, the augmentation process increases variance. We show that ARM can be improved by analytically integrating out the randomness introduced by the augmentation process, guaranteeing substantial variance reduction. Our estimator, \emph{DisARM}, is simple to implement and has the same computational cost as ARM. We evaluate DisARM on several generative modeling benchmarks and show that it consistently outperforms ARM and a strong independent sample baseline in terms of both variance and log-likelihood. Furthermore, we propose a local version of DisARM designed for optimizing the multi-sample variational bound, and show that it outperforms VIMCO, the current state-of-the-art method.

Mathematical modeling of epidemic spreading has been widely adopted to estimate the threats of epidemic diseases (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic) as well as to evaluate epidemic control interventions. The indoor place is considered to be a significant epidemic spreading risk origin, but existing widely-used epidemic spreading models are usually limited for indoor places since the dynamic physical distance changes between people are ignored, and the empirical features of the essential and non-essential travel are not differentiated. In this paper, we introduce a pedestrian-based epidemic spreading model that is capable of modeling indoor transmission risks of diseases during people's social activities. Taking advantage of the before-and-after mobility data from the University of Maryland COVID-19 Impact Analysis Platform, it's found that people tend to spend more time in grocery stores once their travel frequencies are restricted to a low level. In other words, an increase in dwell time could balance the decrease in travel frequencies and satisfy people's demand. Based on the pedestrian-based model and the empirical evidence, combined non-pharmaceutical interventions from different operational levels are evaluated. Numerical simulations show that restrictions on people's travel frequency and open-hours of indoor places may not be universally effective in reducing average infection risks for each pedestrian who visit the place. Entry limitations can be a widely effective alternative, whereas the decision-maker needs to balance the decrease in risky contacts and the increase in queue length outside the place that may impede people from fulfilling their travel needs.

Feature selection can be a crucial factor in obtaining robust and accurate predictions. Online feature selection models, however, operate under considerable restrictions; they need to efficiently extract salient input features based on a bounded set of observations, while enabling robust and accurate predictions. In this work, we introduce FIRES, a novel framework for online feature selection. The proposed feature weighting mechanism leverages the importance information inherent in the parameters of a predictive model. By treating model parameters as random variables, we can penalize features with high uncertainty and thus generate more stable feature sets. Our framework is generic in that it leaves the choice of the underlying model to the user. Strikingly, experiments suggest that the model complexity has only a minor effect on the discriminative power and stability of the selected feature sets. In fact, using a simple linear model, FIRES obtains feature sets that compete with state-of-the-art methods, while dramatically reducing computation time. In addition, experiments show that the proposed framework is clearly superior in terms of feature selection stability.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is an efficient method for optimizing expensive black-box functions. In real-world applications, BO often faces a major problem of missing values in inputs. The missing inputs can happen in two cases. First, the historical data for training BO often contain missing values. Second, when performing the function evaluation (e.g. computing alloy strength in a heat treatment process), errors may occur (e.g. a thermostat stops working) leading to an erroneous situation where the function is computed at a random unknown value instead of the suggested value. To deal with this problem, a common approach just simply skips data points where missing values happen. Clearly, this naive method cannot utilize data efficiently and often leads to poor performance. In this paper, we propose a novel BO method to handle missing inputs. We first find a probability distribution of each missing value so that we can impute the missing value by drawing a sample from its distribution. We then develop a new acquisition function based on the well-known Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) acquisition function, which considers the uncertainty of imputed values when suggesting the next point for function evaluation. We conduct comprehensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world applications to show the usefulness of our method.

The nonlinear vector autoregressive (NVAR) model provides an appealing framework to analyze multivariate time series obtained from a nonlinear dynamical system. However, the innovation (or error), which plays a key role by driving the dynamics, is almost always assumed to be additive. Additivity greatly limits the generality of the model, hindering analysis of general NVAR process which have nonlinear interactions between the innovations. Here, we propose a new general framework called independent innovation analysis (IIA), which estimates the innovations from completely general NVAR. We assume mutual independence of the innovations as well as their modulation by a fully observable auxiliary variable (which is often taken as the time index and simply interpreted as nonstationarity). We show that IIA guarantees the identifiability of the innovations with arbitrary nonlinearities, up to a permutation and component-wise invertible nonlinearities. We propose two practical estimation methods, both of which can be easily implemented by ordinary neural network training. We thus provide the first rigorous identifiability result for general NVAR, as well as very general tools for learning such models.

In statistical learning, algorithms for model selection allow the learner to adapt to the complexity of the best hypothesis class in a sequence. We ask whether similar guarantees are possible for contextual bandit learning.

Most of existing embedding based recommendation models use embeddings (vectors) corresponding to a single fixed point in low-dimensional space, to represent users and items. Such embeddings fail to precisely represent the users/items with uncertainty often observed in recommender systems. Addressing this problem, we propose a unified deep recommendation framework employing Gaussian embeddings, which are proven adaptive to uncertain preferences exhibited by some users, resulting in better user representations and recommendation performance. Furthermore, our framework adopts Monte-Carlo sampling and convolutional neural networks to compute the correlation between the objective user and the candidate item, based on which precise recommendations are achieved. Our extensive experiments on two benchmark datasets not only justify that our proposed Gaussian embeddings capture the uncertainty of users very well, but also demonstrate its superior performance over the state-of-the-art recommendation models.

Labeling cost is often expensive and is a fundamental limitation of supervised learning. In this paper, we study importance labeling problem, in which we are given many unlabeled data and select a limited number of data to be labeled from the unlabeled data, and then a learning algorithm is executed on the selected one. We propose a new importance labeling scheme and analyse the generalization error of gradient descent combined with our labeling scheme in least squares regression in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS). We show that the proposed importance labeling leads to much better generalization ability than uniform one under near interpolation settings. Numerical experiments verify our theoretical findings.

We present a new program synthesis approach that combines an encoder-decoder based synthesis architecture with a differentiable program fixer. Our approach is inspired from the fact that human developers seldom get their program correct on the first attempt, and perform iterative testing-based program fixing to get to the desired program functionality. Similarly, our approach first learns a distribution over programs conditioned on an encoding of a set of input-output examples, and then iteratively performs fix operations using the differentiable fixer. The fixer takes as input the original examples and the current program's outputs on example inputs, and generates a new distribution over the programs with the goal of reducing the discrepancies between the current program outputs and the desired example outputs. We train our architecture end-to-end on the RobustFill domain, and show that the addition of the fixer module leads to a significant improvement on synthesis accuracy compared to using beam search.