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A Distributed Approach to Summarizing Spaces of Multiagent Schedules
Jr., James Calvin Boerkoel (University of Michigan) | Durfee, Edmund H. (University of Michigan)
We introduce the Multiagent Disjunctive Temporal Problem (MaDTP), a new distributed formulation of the widely-adopted Disjunctive Temporal Problem (DTP) representation. An agent that generates a summary of all viable schedules, rather than a single schedule, can be more useful in dynamic environments. We show how a (Ma)DTP with the properties of minimality and decomposability provides a particularly efficacious solution space summary.However, in the multiagent case, these properties sacrifice an agent's strategic interests while incurring significant computational overhead. We introduce a new property called local decomposability that exploits loose-coupling between agents' problems, protects strategic interests, and supports typical queries. We provide and evaluate a new distributed algorithm that summarizes agents' solution spaces in significantly less time and space by using local, rather than full, decomposability.
POMDPs Make Better Hackers: Accounting for Uncertainty in Penetration Testing
Sarraute, Carlos (Core Security and ITBA) | Buffet, Olivier (INRIA and Université de Lorraine) | Hoffmann, Jörg (Saarland University)
Penetration Testing is a methodology for assessing network security, by generating and executing possible hacking attacks. Doing so automatically allows for regular and systematic testing. A key question is how to generate the attacks. This is naturally formulated as planning under uncertainty, i.e., under incomplete knowledge about the network configuration. Previous work uses classical planning, and requires costly pre-processes reducing this uncertainty by extensive application of scanning methods. By contrast, we herein model the attack planning problem in terms of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP). This allows to reason about the knowledge available, and to intelligently employ scanning actions as part of the attack. As one would expect, this accurate solution does not scale. We devise a method that relies on POMDPs to find good attacks on individual machines, which are then composed into an attack on the network as a whole. This decomposition exploits network structure to the extent possible, making targeted approximations (only) where needed. Evaluating this method on a suitably adapted industrial test suite, we demonstrate its effectiveness in both runtime and solution quality.
Fine-Grained Photovoltaic Output Prediction Using a Bayesian Ensemble
Chakraborty, Prithwish (Virginia Tech) | Marwah, Manish (HP Labs) | Arlitt, Martin (HP Labs) | Ramakrishnan, Naren ( Virginia Tech )
Local and distributed power generation is increasingly relianton renewable power sources, e.g., solar (photovoltaic or PV) andwind energy. The integration of such sources into the power grid ischallenging, however, due to their variable and intermittent energyoutput. To effectively use them on alarge scale, it is essential to be able to predict power generation at afine-grained level. We describe a novel Bayesian ensemble methodologyinvolving three diverse predictors. Each predictor estimates mixingcoefficients for integrating PV generation output profiles but capturesfundamentally different characteristics. Two of them employ classicalparameterized (naive Bayes) and non-parametric (nearest neighbor) methods tomodel the relationship between weather forecasts and PV output. The thirdpredictor captures the sequentiality implicit in PV generation and uses motifsmined from historical data to estimate the most likely mixture weights usinga stream prediction methodology. We demonstrate the success and superiority of ourmethods on real PV data from two locations that exhibit diverse weatherconditions. Predictions from our model can be harnessed to optimize schedulingof delay tolerant workloads, e.g., in a data center.
Cooperative Virtual Power Plant Formation Using Scoring Rules
Robu, Valentin (University of Southampton) | Kota, Ramachandra (Secure Meters Ltd., Winchester) | Chalkiadakis, Georgios (Technical University of Crete) | Rogers, Alex (University of Southampton) | Jennings, Nicholas R. (University of Southampton)
Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) are fast emerging as a suitable means of integrating small and distributed energy resources (DERs), like wind and solar, into the electricity supply network (Grid). VPPs are formed via the aggregation of a large number of such DERs, so that they exhibit the characteristics of a traditional generator in terms of predictability and robustness. In this work, we promote the formation of such "cooperative'' VPPs (CVPPs) using multi-agent technology. In particular, we design a payment mechanism that encourages DERs to join CVPPs with large overall production. Our method is based on strictly proper scoring rules and incentivises the provision of accurate predictions from the CVPPs---and in turn, the member DERs---which aids in the planning of the supply schedule at the Grid. We empirically evaluate our approach using the real-world setting of 16 commercial wind farms in the UK. We show that our mechanism incentivises real DERs to form CVPPs, and outperforms the current state of the art payment mechanism developed for this problem.
Opportunities and Challenges for Constraint Programming
O' (University College Cork) | Sullivan, Barry
Constraint programming has become an important technology for solving hard combinatorial problems in a diverse range of application domains. It has its roots in artificial intelligence, mathematical programming, op- erations research, and programming languages. This paper gives a perspective on where constraint programming is today, and discusses a number of opportunities and challenges that could provide focus for the research community into the future.
Diagnosing Changes in An Ontology Stream: A DL Reasoning Approach
Recently, ontology stream reasoning has been introduced as a multidisciplinary approach, merging synergies from Artificial Intelligence, Database and World-Wide-Web to reason on semantics-augmented data streams, thus a way to answering questions on real time events. However existing approaches do not consider stream change diagnosis i.e., identification of the nature and cause of changes, where explaining the logical connection of knowledge and inferring insight on time changing events are the main challenges. We exploit the Description Logics (DL)-based semantics of streams to tackle these challenges. Based on an analysis of stream behavior through change and inconsistency over DL axioms, we tackled change diagnosis by determining and constructing a comprehensive view on potential causes of inconsistencies. We report a large-scale evaluation of our approach in the context of live stream data from Dublin City Council.
Investigating the Effectiveness of Laplacian-Based Kernels in Hub Reduction
Suzuki, Ikumi (Nara Institute of Science and Technology) | Hara, Kazuo (National Institute of Genetics) | Shimbo, Masashi (Nara Institute of Science and Technology) | Matsumoto, Yuji (Nara Institute of Science and Technology) | Saerens, Marco (Universite Catholique de Louvain)
A “hub” is an object closely surrounded by, or very similar to, many other objects in the dataset. Recent studies by Radovanovi´c et al. indicate that in high dimensional spaces, hubs almost always emerge, and objects close to the data centroid tend to become hubs. In this paper, we show that the family of kernels based on the graph Laplacian makes all objects in the dataset equally similar to the centroid, and thus they are expected to make less hubs when used as a similarity measure. We investigate this hypothesis using both synthetic and real-world data. It turns out that these kernels suppress hubs in some cases but not always, and the results seem to be affected by the size of the data—a factor not discussed previously. However, for the datasets in which hubs are indeed reduced by the Laplacian-based kernels, these kernels work well in ranking and classification tasks. This result suggests that the amount of hubs, which can be readily computed in an unsupervised fashion, can be a yardstick of whether Laplacian-based kernels work effectively for a given data.
On Finding Optimal Polytrees
Gaspers, Serge (Vienna University of Technology) | Koivisto, Mikko (University of Helsinki) | Liedloff, Mathieu (Université d'Orlèans) | Ordyniak, Sebastian (Vienna University of Technology) | Szeider, Stefan (Vienna University of Technology)
Inferring probabilistic networks from data is a notoriously difficult task. Under various goodness-of-fit measures, finding an optimal network is NP-hard, even if restricted to polytrees of bounded in-degree. Polynomial-time algorithms are known only for rare special cases, perhaps most notably for branchings, that is, polytrees in which the in-degree of every node is at most one. Here, we study the complexity of finding an optimal polytree that can be turned into a branching by deleting some number of arcs or nodes, treated as a parameter. We show that the problem can be solved via a matroid intersection formulation in polynomial time if the number of deleted arcs is bounded by a constant. The order of the polynomial time bound depends on this constant, hence the algorithm does not establish fixed-parameter tractability when parameterized by the number of deleted arcs. We show that a restricted version of the problem allows fixed-parameter tractability and hence scales well with the parameter. We contrast this positive result by showing that if we parameterize by the number of deleted nodes, a somewhat more powerful parameter, the problem is not fixed-parameter tractable, subject to a complexity-theoretic assumption.
Similarity Is Not Entailment — Jointly Learning Similarity Transformation for Textual Entailment
Yokote, Ken-ichi (The University of Tokyo) | Bollegala, Danushka (The University of Tokyo) | Ishizuka, Mitsuru (The University of Tokyo)
Predicting entailment between two given texts is an important task upon which the performance of numerous NLP tasks depend on such as question answering, text summarization, and information extraction. The degree to which two texts are similar has been used extensively as a key feature in much previous work in predicting entailment. However, using similarity scores directly, without proper transformations, results in suboptimal performance. Given a set of lexical similarity measures, we propose a method that jointly learns both (a) a set of non-linear transformation functions for those similarity measures and, (b) the optimal non-linear combination of those transformation functions to predict textual entailment. Our method consistently outperforms numerous baselines, reporting a micro-averaged F-score of 46.48 on the RTE- 7 benchmark dataset. The proposed method is ranked 2-nd among 33 entailment systems participated in RTE-7, demonstrating its competitiveness over numerous other entailment approaches. Although our method is statistically comparable to the current state-of-the-art, we require less external knowledge resources.