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Dynamic COVID risk assessment accounting for community virus exposure from a spatial-temporal transmission model

Neural Information Processing Systems

COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented negative impacts on our society, including further exposing inequity and disparity in public health. To study the impact of socioeconomic factors on COVID transmission, we first propose a spatial-temporal model to examine the socioeconomic heterogeneity and spatial correlation of COVID-19 transmission at the community level. Second, to assess the individual risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes after a positive diagnosis, we propose a dynamic, varying-coefficient model that integrates individual-level risk factors from electronic health records (EHRs) with community-level risk factors. The underlying neighborhood prevalence of infections (both symptomatic and pre-symptomatic) predicted from the previous spatial-temporal model is included in the individual risk assessment so as to better capture the background risk of virus exposure for each individual. We design a weighting scheme to mitigate multiple selection biases inherited in EHRs of COVID patients. We analyze COVID transmission data in New York City (NYC, the epicenter of the first surge in the United States) and EHRs from NYC hospitals, where time-varying effects of community risk factors and significant interactions between individual-and community-level risk factors are detected. By examining the socioeconomic disparity of infection risks and interaction among the risk factors, our methods can assist public health decision-making and facilitate better clinical management of COVID patients.


The Option Keyboard: Combining Skills in Reinforcement Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

The ability to combine known skills to create new ones may be crucial in the solution of complex reinforcement learning problems that unfold over extended periods. We argue that a robust way of combining skills is to define and manipulate them in the space of pseudo-rewards (or cumulants). Based on this premise, we propose a framework for combining skills using the formalism of options. We show that every deterministic option can be unambiguously represented as a cumulant defined in an extended domain. Building on this insight and on previous results on transfer learning, we show how to approximate options whose cumulants are linear combinations of the cumulants of known options. This means that, once we have learned options associated with a set of cumulants, we can instantaneously synthesise options induced by any linear combination of them, without any learning involved. We describe how this framework provides a hierarchical interface to the environment whose abstract actions correspond to combinations of basic skills. We demonstrate the practical benefits of our approach in a resource management problem and a navigation task involving a quadrupedal simulated robot.


SiT Dataset: Socially Interactive Pedestrian Trajectory Dataset for Social Navigation Robots

Neural Information Processing Systems

To ensure secure and dependable mobility in environments shared by humans and robots, social navigation robots should possess the capability to accurately perceive and predict the trajectories of nearby pedestrians. In this paper, we present a novel dataset of pedestrian trajectories, referred to as Social Interactive Trajectory (SiT) dataset, which can be used to train pedestrian detection, tracking, and trajectory prediction models needed to design social navigation robots. Our dataset includes sequential raw data captured by two 3D LiDARs and five cameras covering a 360-degree view, two inertial measurement unit (IMU) sensors, and real-time kinematic positioning (RTK), as well as annotations including 2D & 3D boxes, object classes, and object IDs. Thus far, various human trajectory datasets have been introduced to support the development of pedestrian motion forecasting models. Our SiT dataset differs from these datasets in the following two respects.


Accurate Uncertainty Estimation and Decomposition in Ensemble Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Ensemble learning is a standard approach to building machine learning systems that capture complex phenomena in real-world data. An important aspect of these systems is the complete and valid quantification of model uncertainty. We introduce a Bayesian nonparametric ensemble (BNE) approach that augments an existing ensemble model to account for different sources of model uncertainty.


Joint Optimization of Tree-based Index and Deep Model for Recommender Systems

Neural Information Processing Systems

Large-scale industrial recommender systems are usually confronted with computational problems due to the enormous corpus size. To retrieve and recommend the most relevant items to users under response time limits, resorting to an efficient index structure is an effective and practical solution. The previous work Tree-based Deep Model (TDM) \cite{zhu2018learning} greatly improves recommendation accuracy using tree index. By indexing items in a tree hierarchy and training a user-node preference prediction model satisfying a max-heap like property in the tree, TDM provides logarithmic computational complexity w.r.t. the corpus size, enabling the use of arbitrary advanced models in candidate retrieval and recommendation.


12 books you need to read in 2026

BBC News

Whenever I fantasise about a couple of hours of uninterrupted relaxation during the chilly winter months, my mind immediately conjures up images of curling up on the sofa with a deliciously good book. And when summer eventually comes around, just swap the location to a sun lounger in the back garden (or somewhere more exotic). So with 2026 nearly upon us, join me for an eclectic taste of a few literary delights worth feasting upon over the next 12 months. It's the final instalment of Oseman's hit graphic novel series which has followed the lives of Nick and Charlie, two teenage boys who fall for each other at school. Along with their friends, we've followed all the ups and downs of their relationship as they navigated family drama, homophobia and mental health issues, alongside the joy of first love.


Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,400

Al Jazeera

Could Ukraine hold a presidential election right now? Will Europe use frozen Russian assets to fund war? How can Ukraine rebuild China ties? 'Ukraine is running out of men, money and time' An explosion in Moscow killed three people, including two police officers, just days after a car bomb killed a high-ranking Russian general in the same area of the capital. An official from Ukraine's military intelligence, known as GUR, told The Associated Press news agency that the attack had been carried out as part of a Ukrainian operation and the two police officers were targeted for taking part in Russia's war in Ukraine.


Deep Proxy Causal Learning and its Application to Confounded Bandit Policy Evaluation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Proxy causal learning (PCL) is a method for estimating the causal effect of treatments on outcomes in the presence of unobserved confounding, using proxies (structured side information) for the confounder. This is achieved via two-stage regression: in the first stage, we model relations among the treatment and proxies; in the second stage, we use this model to learn the effect of treatment on the outcome, given the context provided by the proxies.


CSMeD: Bridging the Dataset Gap in Automated Citation Screening for Systematic Literature Reviews

Neural Information Processing Systems

Systematic literature reviews (SLRs) play an essential role in summarising, synthesising and validating scientific evidence. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in using machine learning techniques to automate the identification of relevant studies for SLRs. However, the lack of standardised evaluation datasets makes comparing the performance of such automated literature screening systems difficult. In this paper, we analyse the citation screening evaluation datasets, revealing that many of the available datasets are either too small, suffer from data leakage or have limited applicability to systems treating automated literature screening as a classification task, as opposed to, for example, a retrieval or question-answering task. To address these challenges, we introduce CSMED, a meta-dataset consolidating nine publicly released collections, providing unified access to 325 SLRs from the fields of medicine and computer science. CSMED serves as a comprehensive resource for training and evaluating the performance of automated citation screening models. Additionally, we introduce CSMED-FT, a new dataset designed explicitly for evaluating the full text publication screening task. To demonstrate the utility of CSMED, we conduct experiments and establish baselines on new datasets.


Lattice partition recovery with dyadic CART

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study piece-wise constant signals corrupted by additive Gaussian noise over a $d$-dimensional lattice. Data of this form naturally arise in a host of applications, and the tasks of signal detection or testing, de-noising and estimation have been studied extensively in the statistical and signal processing literature. In this paper we consider instead the problem of partition recovery, i.e.~of estimating the partition of the lattice induced by the constancy regions of the unknown signal, using the computationally-efficient dyadic classification and regression tree (DCART) methodology proposed by \citep{donoho1997cart}. We prove that, under appropriate regularity conditions on the shape of the partition elements, a DCART-based procedure consistently estimates the underlying partition at a rate of order $\sigma^2 k^* \log (N)/\kappa^2$, where $k^*$ is the minimal number of rectangular sub-graphs obtained using recursive dyadic partitions supporting the signal partition, $\sigma^2$ is the noise variance, $\kappa$ is the minimal magnitude of the signal difference among contiguous elements of the partition and $N$ is the size of the lattice. Furthermore, under stronger assumptions, our method attains a sharper estimation error of order $\sigma^2\log(N)/\kappa^2$, independent of $k^*$, which we show to be minimax rate optimal. Our theoretical guarantees further extend to the partition estimator based on the optimal regression tree estimator (ORT) of \cite{chatterjee2019adaptive} and to the one obtained through an NP-hard exhaustive search method. We corroborate our theoretical findings and the effectiveness of DCART for partition recovery in simulations.