High frequency foreign exchange data can be decomposed into three components: the inventory effect component, the surprise infonnation (news) component and the regular infonnation component. The presence of the inventory effect and news can make analysis of trends due to the diffusion of infonnation (regular information component) difficult. We propose a neural-net-based, independent component analysis to separate high frequency foreign exchange data into these three components. Our empirical results show that our proposed multi-effect decomposition can reveal the intrinsic price behavior.

We consider the microscopic equations for learning problems in neural networks. The aligning fields of an example are obtained from the cavity fields, which are the fields if that example were absent in the learning process. In a rough energy landscape, we assume that the density of the local minima obey an exponential distribution, yielding macroscopic properties agreeing with the first step replica symmetry breaking solution. Iterating the microscopic equations provide a learning algorithm, which results in a higher stability than conventional algorithms. 1 INTRODUCTION Most neural networks learn iteratively by gradient descent. As a result, closed expressions for the final network state after learning are rarely known. This precludes further analysis of their properties, and insights into the design of learning algorithms.

We study a mistake-driven variant of an online Bayesian learning algorithm (similar to one studied by Cesa-Bianchi, Helmbold, and Panizza [CHP96]). This variant only updates its state (learns) on trials in which it makes a mistake. The algorithm makes binary classifications using a linear-threshold classifier and runs in time linear in the number of attributes seen by the learner. We have been able to show, theoretically and in simulations, that this algorithm performs well under assumptions quite different from those embodied in the prior of the original Bayesian algorithm. It can handle situations that we do not know how to handle in linear time with Bayesian algorithms. We expect our techniques to be useful in deriving and analyzing other apobayesian algorithms. 1 Introduction We consider two styles of online learning.

We study the spatiotemporal correlation in natural time-varying images and explore the hypothesis that the visual system is concerned with the optimal coding of visual representation through spatiotemporal decorrelation of the input signal. Based on the measured spatiotemporal power spectrum, the transform needed to decorrelate input signal is derived analytically and then compared with the actual processing observed in psychophysical experiments.

In most treatments of the regression problem it is assumed that the distribution of target data can be described by a deterministic function of the inputs, together with additive Gaussian noise having constant variance. The use of maximum likelihood to train such models then corresponds to the minimization of a sum-of-squares error function. In many applications a more realistic model would allow the noise variance itself to depend on the input variables. However, the use of maximum likelihood to train such models would give highly biased results. In this paper we show how a Bayesian treatment can allow for an input-dependent variance while overcoming the bias of maximum likelihood.

Neural one-unit learning rules for the problem of Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and blind source separation are introduced. In these new algorithms, every ICA neuron develops into a separator that finds one of the independent components. The learning rules use very simple constrained Hebbianjanti-Hebbian learning in which decorrelating feedback may be added. To speed up the convergence of these stochastic gradient descent rules, a novel computationally efficient fixed-point algorithm is introduced. 1 Introduction Independent Component Analysis (ICA) (Comon, 1994; Jutten and Herault, 1991) is a signal processing technique whose goal is to express a set of random variables as linear combinations of statistically independent component variables. The main applications of ICA are in blind source separation, feature extraction, and blind deconvolution.

Images are ambiguous at each of many levels of a contextual hierarchy. Nevertheless, the high-level interpretation of most scenes is unambiguous, as evidenced by the superior performance of humans. This observation argues for global vision models, such as deformable templates. Unfortunately, such models are computationally intractable for unconstrained problems. We propose a compositional model in which primitives are recursively composed, subject to syntactic restrictions, to form tree-structured objects and object groupings. Ambiguity is propagated up the hierarchy in the form of multiple interpretations, which are later resolved by a Bayesian, equivalently minimum-description-Iength, cost functional.

The Self-Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm has been extensively studied and has been applied with considerable success to a wide variety of problems. However, the algorithm is derived from heuristic ideas and this leads to a number of significant limitations. In this paper, we consider the problem of modelling the probability density of data in a space of several dimensions in terms of a smaller number of latent, or hidden, variables. We introduce a novel form of latent variable model, which we call the GTM algorithm (for Generative Topographic Mapping), which allows general nonlinear transformations from latent space to data space, and which is trained using the EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm. Our approach overcomes the limitations of the SOM, while introducing no significant disadvantages. We demonstrate the performance of the GTM algorithm on simulated data from flow diagnostics for a multiphase oil pipeline.

Department of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 Abstract Dynamic Programming, Q-Iearning and other discrete Markov Decision Process solvers can be -applied to continuous d-dimensional state-spaces by quantizing the state space into an array of boxes. This is often problematic above two dimensions: a coarse quantization can lead to poor policies, and fine quantization is too expensive. Possible solutions are variable-resolution discretization, or function approximation by neural nets. A third option, which has been little studied in the reinforcement learning literature, is interpolation on a coarse grid. In this paper we study interpolation techniques that can result in vast improvements in the online behavior of the resulting control systems: multilinear interpolation, and an interpolation algorithm based on an interesting regular triangulation of d-dimensional space.

In many optimization problems, the structure of solutions reflects complex relationships between the different input parameters. For example, experience may tell us that certain parameters are closely related and should not be explored independently. Similarly, experience may establish that a subset of parameters must take on particular values. Any search of the cost landscape should take advantage of these relationships. We present MIMIC, a framework in which we analyze the global structure of the optimization landscape. A novel and efficient algorithm for the estimation of this structure is derived. We use knowledge of this structure to guide a randomized search through the solution space and, in turn, to refine our estimate ofthe structure.