Multiple realizations of continuous-valued time series from a stochastic process often contain systematic variations in rate and amplitude. To leverage the information contained in such noisy replicate sets, we need to align them in an appropriate way (for example, to allow the data to be properly combined by adaptive averaging). We present the Continuous Profile Model (CPM), a generative model in which each observed time series is a non-uniformly subsampled version of a single latent trace, to which local rescaling and additive noise are applied. After unsupervised training, the learned trace represents a canonical, high resolution fusion of all the replicates. As well, an alignment in time and scale of each observation to this trace can be found by inference in the model. We apply CPM to successfully align speech signals from multiple speakers and sets of Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry proteomic data.

We examine the marriage of recent probabilistic generative models for social networks with classical frameworks from mathematical economics. Weare particularly interested in how the statistical structure of such networks influences global economic quantities such as price variation. Ourfindings are a mixture of formal analysis, simulation, and experiments on an international trade data set from the United Nations.

We explicitly treat two cases.

In recent years, spectral clustering methods, i.e. data partitioning based on the

We consider multi-agent systems whose agents compete for resources by striving to be in the minority group. The agents adapt to the environment by reinforcement learning of the preferences of the policies they hold. Diversity of preferences of policies is introduced by adding random biases to the initial cumulative payoffs of their policies. We explain and provide evidence that agent cooperation becomes increasingly important when diversity increases. Analyses of these mechanisms yield excellent agreement with simulations over nine decades of data.

We present an algorithm based on convex optimization for constructing kernels for semi-supervised learning. The kernel matrices are derived from the spectral decomposition of graph Laplacians, and combine labeled and unlabeled data in a systematic fashion. Unlike previous work using diffusion kernels and Gaussian random field kernels, a nonparametric kernel approach is presented that incorporates order constraints during optimization. This results in flexible kernels and avoids the need to choose among different parametric forms. Our approach relies on a quadratically constrained quadratic program (QCQP), and is computationally feasible for large datasets. We evaluate the kernels on real datasets using support vector machines, with encouraging results.

Log-concavity is an important property in the context of optimization, Laplace approximation, and sampling; Bayesian methods based on Gaussian process priors have become quite popular recently for classification, regression, density estimation, and point process intensity estimation. Here we prove that the predictive densities corresponding to each of these applications are log-concave, given any observed data. We also prove that the likelihood is log-concave in the hyperparameters controlling the mean function of the Gaussian prior in the density and point process intensity estimation cases, and the mean, covariance, and observation noise parameters in the classification and regression cases; this result leads to a useful parameterization of these hyperparameters, indicating a suitably large class of priors for which the corresponding maximum a posteriori problem is log-concave. Introduction Bayesian methods based on Gaussian process priors have recently become quite popular for machine learning tasks (1). These techniques have enjoyed a good deal of theoretical examination, documenting their learning-theoretic (generalization) properties (2), and developing a variety of efficient computational schemes (e.g., (3-5), and references therein).

We examine the marriage of recent probabilistic generative models for social networks with classical frameworks from mathematical economics. We are particularly interested in how the statistical structure of such networks influences global economic quantities such as price variation. Our findings are a mixture of formal analysis, simulation, and experiments on an international trade data set from the United Nations.

In this paper we argue that the choice of the SVM cost parameter can be critical. We then derive an algorithm that can fit the entire path of SVM solutions for every value of the cost parameter, with essentially the same computational cost as fitting one SVM model.

Belief propagation (BP) is an increasingly popular method of performing approximate inference on arbitrary graphical models. At times, even further approximations are required, whether from quantization or other simplified message representations or from stochastic approximation methods. Introducing such errors into the BP message computations has the potential to adversely affect the solution obtained. We analyze this effect with respect to a particular measure of message error, and show bounds on the accumulation of errors in the system. This leads both to convergence conditions and error bounds in traditional and approximate BP message passing.