We use graphical models and structure learning to explore how people learn policies in sequential decision making tasks. Studies of sequential decision-making in humans frequently find suboptimal performance relative to an ideal actor that knows the graph model that generates reward in the environment. We argue that the learning problem humans face also involves learning the graph structure for reward generation in the environment. We formulate the structure learning problem using mixtures of reward models, and solve the optimal action selection problem using Bayesian Reinforcement Learning. We show that structure learning in one and two armed bandit problems produces many of the qualitative behaviors deemed suboptimal in previous studies. Our argument is supported by the results of experiments that demonstrate humans rapidly learn and exploit new reward structure.

We consider the problem of bounding from above the log-partition function corresponding to second-order Ising models for binary distributions. We introduce a new bound, the cardinality bound, which can be computed via convex optimization. The corresponding error on the logpartition functionis bounded above by twice the distance, in model parameter space, to a class of "standard" Ising models, for which variable interdependence is described via a simple mean field term. In the context of maximum-likelihood, using the new bound instead of the exact log-partition function, while constraining the distance to the class of standard Ising models, leads not only to a good approximation to the log-partition function, but also to a model that is parsimonious, and easily interpretable.We compare our bound with the log-determinant bound introduced by Wainwright and Jordan (2006), and show that when the l

We develop a probabilistic model of human memory performance in free recall experiments. In these experiments, a subject first studies a list of words and then tries to recall them. To model these data, we draw on both previous psychological research and statistical topic models of text documents. We assume that memories are formed by assimilating the semantic meaning of studied words (represented as a distribution over topics) into a slowly changing latent context (represented in the same space). During recall, this context is reinstated and used as a cue for retrieving studied words. By conceptualizing memory retrieval as a dynamic latent variable model, we are able to use Bayesian inference to represent uncertainty and reason about the cognitive processes underlying memory. We present a particle filter algorithm for performing approximate posterior inference, and evaluate our model on the prediction of recalled words in experimental data. By specifying the model hierarchically, we are also able to capture inter-subject variability.

We present a sparse approximation approach for dependent output Gaussian processes (GP). Employing a latent function framework, we apply the convolution process formalism to establish dependencies between output variables, where each latent function is represented as a GP. Based on these latent functions, we establish an approximation scheme using a conditional independence assumption between the output processes, leading to an approximation of the full covariance which is determined by the locations at which the latent functions are evaluated. We show results of the proposed methodology for synthetic data and real world applications on pollution prediction and a sensor network.

Regularized risk minimization often involves non-smooth optimization, either because of the loss function (e.g., hinge loss) or the regularizer (e.g., $\ell_1$-regularizer). Gradient descent methods, though highly scalable and easy to implement, are known to converge slowly on these problems. In this paper, we develop novel accelerated gradient methods for stochastic optimization while still preserving their computational simplicity and scalability. The proposed algorithm, called SAGE (Stochastic Accelerated GradiEnt), exhibits fast convergence rates on stochastic optimization with both convex and strongly convex objectives. Experimental results show that SAGE is faster than recent (sub)gradient methods including FOLOS, SMIDAS and SCD. Moreover, SAGE can also be extended for online learning, resulting in a simple but powerful algorithm.

The use of context is critical for scene understanding in computer vision, where the recognition of an object is driven by both local appearance and the objects relationship to other elements of the scene (context). Most current approaches rely on modeling the relationships between object categories as a source of context. In this paper we seek to move beyond categories to provide a richer appearance-based model of context. We present an exemplar-based model of objects and their relationships, the Visual Memex, that encodes both local appearance and 2D spatial context between object instances. We evaluate our model on Torralbas proposed Context Challenge against a baseline category-based system. Our experiments suggest that moving beyond categories for context modeling appears to be quite beneficial, and may be the critical missing ingredient in scene understanding systems.

We show how to model documents as bags of words using family of two-layer, undirected graphical models. Each member of the family has the same number of binary hidden units but a different number of ``softmax visible units. All of the softmax units in all of the models in the family share the same weights to the binary hidden units. We describe efficient inference and learning procedures for such a family. Each member of the family models the probability distribution of documents of a specific length as a product of topic-specific distributions rather than as a mixture and this gives much better generalization than Latent Dirichlet Allocation for modeling the log probabilities of held-out documents. The low-dimensional topic vectors learned by the undirected family are also much better than LDA topic vectors for retrieving documents that are similar to a query document. The learned topics are more general than those found by LDA because precision is achieved by intersecting many general topics rather than by selecting a single precise topic to generate each word.

We describe a novel class of distributions, called Mondrian processes, which can be interpreted as probability distributions over kd-tree data structures. Mondrian processesare multidimensional generalizations of Poisson processes and this connection allows us to construct multidimensional generalizations of the stickbreaking processdescribed by Sethuraman (1994), recovering the Dirichlet process in one dimension. After introducing the Aldous-Hoover representation for jointly and separately exchangeable arrays, we show how the process can be used as a nonparametric prior distribution in Bayesian models of relational data.

We study the problem of domain transfer for a supervised classification task in mRNA splicing. We consider a number of recent domain transfer methods from machine learning, including some that are novel, and evaluate them on genomic sequence data from model organisms of varying evolutionary distance. We find that in cases where the organisms are not closely related, the use of domain adaptation methods can help improve classification performance.

We introduce the first temporal-difference learning algorithm that is stable with linear function approximation and off-policy training, for any finite Markov decision process, target policy, and exciting behavior policy, and whose complexity scales linearly in the number of parameters. We consider an i.i.d.\ policy-evaluation setting in which the data need not come from on-policy experience. The gradient temporal-difference (GTD) algorithm estimates the expected update vector of the TD(0) algorithm and performs stochastic gradient descent on its L_2 norm. Our analysis proves that its expected update is in the direction of the gradient, assuring convergence under the usual stochastic approximation conditions to the same least-squares solution as found by the LSTD, but without its quadratic computational complexity. GTD is online and incremental, and does not involve multiplying by products of likelihood ratios as in importance-sampling methods.