Reinforcement learning (RL) systems have countless applications, from energygrid management to protein design. However, such real-world scenarios are often extremely difficult, combinatorial in nature, and require complex coordination between multiple agents. This level of complexity can cause even state-of-theart RL systems, trained until convergence, to hit a performance ceiling which they are unable to break out of with zero-shot inference. Meanwhile, many digital or simulation-based applications allow for an inference phase that utilises a specific time and compute budget to explore multiple attempts before outputting a final solution. In this work, we show that such an inference phase employed at execution time, and the choice of a corresponding inference strategy, are key to breaking the performance ceiling observed in complex multi-agent RL problems. Our main result is striking: we can obtain up to a 126% and, on average, a 45% improvement over the previous state-of-the-art across 17 tasks, using only a couple seconds of extra wall-clock time during execution. We also demonstrate promising compute scaling properties, supported by over 60k experiments, making it the largest study on inference strategies for complex RL to date.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) of continuous-valued interventions on survival, that is, time-to-event (TTE) outcomes, is crucial in various fields, notably in clinical decision-making and in driving the advancement of nextgeneration clinical trials. However, while HTE estimation for continuous-valued (i.e., dosage-dependent) interventions and for TTE outcomes have been separately explored, their combined application remains largely overlooked in the machine learning literature. We propose DoseSurv, a varying-coefficient network designed to estimate HTEs for different dosage-dependent and non-dosage treatment options from TTE data. DoseSurv uses radial basis functions to model continuity in doseresponse relationships and learns balanced representations to address covariate shifts arising in HTE estimation from observational TTE data.

Predicting future neural activity is a core challenge in modeling brain dynamics, with applications ranging from scientific investigation to closed-loop neurotechnology. While recent models of population activity emphasize interpretability and behavioral decoding, neural forecasting--particularly across multi-session, spontaneous calcium recordings--remains underexplored. We introduce POCO, a unified forecasting model that combines a lightweight univariate forecaster with a population-level encoder to capture both neuron-specific and brain-wide dynamics in calcium imaging recordings. Trained across five calcium imaging datasets spanning zebrafish, mice, and C. elegans, POCO achieves state-of-the-art accuracy at cellular resolution in spontaneous behaviors.

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Models of hybrid dynamical systems are widely used to answer questions about the causes and effects of dynamic events in time. Unfortunately, existing causal reasoning formalisms lack support for queries involving the dynamically triggered, discontinuous interventions that characterize hybrid dynamical systems. This mismatch can lead to ad-hoc and error-prone causal analysis workflows in practice. To bridge the gap between the needs of hybrid systems users and current causal inference capabilities, we develop a rigorous counterfactual semantics by formalizing interventions as transformations to the constraints of hybrid systems. Unlike interventions in a typical structural causal model, however, interventions in hybrid systems can easily render the model ill-posed. Thus, we identify mild conditions under which our interventions maintain solution existence, uniqueness, and measurability by making explicit connections to established hybrid systems theory. To illustrate the utility of our framework, we formalize a number of canonical causal estimands and explore a case study on the probabilities of causation with applications to fishery management. Our work simultaneously expands the modeling possibilities available to causal inference practitioners and begins to unlock decades of causality research for users of hybrid systems.

Time Series Forecasting has made significant progress with the help of Patching technique, which partitions time series into multiple patches to effectively retain contextual semantic information into a representation space beneficial for modeling long-term dependencies. However, conventional patching partitions a time series into adjacent patches, which causes a fixed representation space, thus resulting in insufficiently expressful representations. In this paper, we pioneer the exploration of constructing a selective representation space to flexibly include the most informative patches for forecasting. Specifically, we propose the Selective Representation Space (SRS) module, which utilizes the learnable Selective Patching and Dynamic Reassembly techniques to adaptively select and shuffle the patches from the contextual time series, aiming at fully exploiting the information of contextual time series to enhance the forecasting performance of patch-based models. To demonstrate the effectiveness of SRS module, we propose a simple yet effective SRSNet consisting of SRS and an MLP head, which achieves state-of-the-art performance on real-world datasets from multiple domains. Furthermore, as a novel plug-and-play module, SRS can also enhance the performance of existing patch-based models.

With the rise of the fine-tuned-pretrained paradigm, storing numerous fine-tuned models for multi-tasking creates significant storage overhead. Delta compression alleviates this by storing only the pretrained model and the highly compressed delta weights (the differences between fine-tuned and pretrained model weights). However, existing methods fail to maintain both high compression and performance, and often rely on data. To address these challenges, we propose UltraDelta, the first data-free delta compression pipeline that achieves both ultra-high compression and strong performance. UltraDelta is designed to minimize redundancy, maximize information, and stabilize performance across inter-layer, intra-layer, and global dimensions, using three key components: (1) Variance-Based Mixed Sparsity Allocation assigns sparsity based on variance, giving lower sparsity to high-variance layers to preserve inter-layer information.

Suppressor variables can influence model predictions without being dependent on the target outcome, and they pose a significant challenge for Explainable AI (XAI) methods. These variables may cause false-positive feature attributions, undermining the utility of explanations. Although effective remedies exist for linear models, their extension to non-linear models and instance-based explanations has remained limited. We introduce PatternLocal, a novel XAI technique that addresses this gap. PatternLocal begins with a locally linear surrogate, e.g., LIME, KernelSHAP, or gradient-based methods, and transforms the resulting discriminative model weights into a generative representation, thereby suppressing the influence of suppressor variables while preserving local fidelity. In extensive hyperparameter optimization on the XAI-TRIS benchmark, PatternLocal consistently outperformed other XAI methods and reduced false-positive attributions when explaining non-linear tasks, thereby enabling more reliable and actionable insights. We further evaluate PatternLocal on an EEG motor imagery dataset, demonstrating physiologically plausible explanations.

Machine unlearning has emerged as a prevalent technical solution for selectively removing unwanted knowledge absorbed during pre-training, without requiring full retraining. While recent unlearning techniques can effectively remove undesirable content without severely compromising performance on standard benchmarks, we find that they may inadvertently create "knowledge holes"--unintended losses of benign knowledge that standard benchmarks fail to capture. To probe where unlearned models reveal knowledge holes, we propose a test case generation framework that explores both immediate neighbors of unlearned content and broader areas of potential failures. Our evaluation demonstrates significant hidden costs of unlearning: up to 98.7% of the test cases yield irrelevant or nonsensical responses from unlearned models, despite being answerable by the pretrained model.

Image fusion is a fundamental and important task in computer vision, aiming to combine complementary information from different modalities to fuse images. In recent years, diffusion models have made significant developments in the field of image fusion. However, diffusion models often require complex computations and redundant inference time, which reduces the applicability of these methods. To address this issue, we propose RFfusion, an efficient one-step diffusion model for image fusion based on Rectified Flow. We incorporate Rectified Flow into the image fusion task to straighten the sampling path in the diffusion model, achieving one-step sampling without the need for additional training, while still maintaining high-quality fusion results. Furthermore, we propose a task-specific Variational Autoencoder (VAE) architecture tailored for image fusion, where the fusion operation is embedded within the latent space to further reduce computational complexity. To address the inherent discrepancy between conventional reconstruction-oriented VAE objectives and the requirements of image fusion, we introduce a two-stage training strategy. This approach facilitates the effective learning and integration of complementary information from multi-modal source images, thereby enabling the model to retain fine-grained structural details while significantly enhancing inference efficiency. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms other state-of-the-art methods in terms of both inference speed and fusion quality.