Conditional neural processes (CNPs; Garnelo et al., 2018a) are attractive meta-learning models which produce well-calibrated predictions and are trainable via a simple maximum likelihood procedure. Although CNPs have many advantages, they are unable to model dependencies in their predictions. Various works propose solutions to this, but these come at the cost of either requiring approximate inference or being limited to Gaussian predictions. In this work, we instead propose to change how CNPs are deployed at test time, without any modifications to the model or training procedure. Instead of making predictions independently for every target point, we autoregressively define a joint predictive distribution using the chain rule of probability, taking inspiration from the neural autoregressive density estimator (NADE) literature. We show that this simple procedure allows factorised Gaussian CNPs to model highly dependent, non-Gaussian predictive distributions. Perhaps surprisingly, in an extensive range of tasks with synthetic and real data, we show that CNPs in autoregressive (AR) mode not only significantly outperform non-AR CNPs, but are also competitive with more sophisticated models that are significantly more computationally expensive and challenging to train. This performance is remarkable given that AR CNPs are not trained to model joint dependencies. Our work provides an example of how ideas from neural distribution estimation can benefit neural processes, and motivates research into the AR deployment of other neural process models.

Global warming is an urgent issue that is generating catastrophic environmental changes, such as the melting of sea ice and glaciers, particularly in the polar regions. The melting pattern and retreat of polar sea ice cover is an essential indicator of global warming. The Sentinel-2 satellite (S2) captures high-resolution optical imagery over the polar regions. This research aims at developing a robust and effective system for classifying polar sea ice as thick or snow-covered, young or thin, or open water using S2 images. A key challenge is the lack of labeled S2 training data to serve as the ground truth. We demonstrate a method with high precision to segment and automatically label the S2 images based on suitably determined color thresholds and employ these auto-labeled data to train a U-Net machine model (a fully convolutional neural network), yielding good classification accuracy. Evaluation results over S2 data from the polar summer season in the Ross Sea region of the Antarctic show that the U-Net model trained on auto-labeled data has an accuracy of 90.18% over the original S2 images, whereas the U-Net model trained on manually labeled data has an accuracy of 91.39%. Filtering out the thin clouds and shadows from the S2 images further improves U-Net's accuracy, respectively, to 98.97% for auto-labeled and 98.40% for manually labeled training datasets.

We propose a new Tipping Point Generative Adversarial Network (TIP-GAN) for better characterizing potential climate tipping points in Earth system models. We describe an adversarial game to explore the parameter space of these models, detect upcoming tipping points, and discover the drivers of tipping points. In this setup, a set of generators learn to construct model configurations that will invoke a climate tipping point. The discriminator learns to identify which generators are generating each model configuration and whether a given configuration will lead to a tipping point. The discriminator is trained using an oracle (a surrogate climate model) to test if a generated model configuration leads to a tipping point or not. We demonstrate the application of this GAN to invoke the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We share experimental results of modifying the loss functions and the number of generators to exploit the area of uncertainty in model state space near a climate tipping point. In addition, we show that our trained discriminator can predict AMOC collapse with a high degree of accuracy without the use of the oracle. This approach could generalize to other tipping points, and could augment climate modeling research by directing users interested in studying tipping points to parameter sets likely to induce said tipping points in their computationally intensive climate models.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance on complex reasoning by leveraging chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting to generate intermediate reasoning chains as the rationale to infer the answer. However, existing CoT studies have focused on the language modality. We propose Multimodal-CoT that incorporates language (text) and vision (images) modalities into a two-stage framework that separates rationale generation and answer inference. In this way, answer inference can leverage better generated rationales that are based on multimodal information. With Multimodal-CoT, our model under 1 billion parameters outperforms the previous state-of-the-art LLM (GPT-3.5) by 16 percentage points (75.17%->91.68% accuracy) on the ScienceQA benchmark and even surpasses human performance. Code is publicly available available at https://github.com/amazon-science/mm-cot.

We propose a hybrid Artificial Intelligence (AI) climate modeling approach that enables climate modelers in scientific discovery using a climate-targeted simulation methodology based on a novel combination of deep neural networks and mathematical methods for modeling dynamical systems. The simulations are grounded by a neuro-symbolic language that both enables question answering of what is learned by the AI methods and provides a means of explainability. We describe how this methodology can be applied to the discovery of climate tipping points and, in particular, the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We show how this methodology is able to predict AMOC collapse with a high degree of accuracy using a surrogate climate model for ocean interaction. We also show preliminary results of neuro-symbolic method performance when translating between natural language questions and symbolically learned representations. Our AI methodology shows promising early results, potentially enabling faster climate tipping point related research that would otherwise be computationally infeasible.

Orcinus orca (killer whales) exhibit complex calls. They last about a second. In a call, an orca typically uses multiple frequencies simultaneously, varies the frequencies, and varies their volumes. Behavior data is hard to obtain because orcas live under water and travel quickly. Sound data is relatively easy to capture. As a science goal, we would like to know whether orca vocalizations constitute a semantic language. We do this by studying whether machine learning can predict behavior from vocalizations. Such prediction would also help scientific research and safety applications because one would like to predict behavior while only having to capture sound. A significant challenge in this process is lack of labeled data. We work with recent recordings of McMurdo Sound orcas [Wellard et al. 2020] where each recording is labeled with the behaviors observed during the recording. This yields a dataset where sound segments - continuous vocalizations that can be thought of as call sequences or more general structures - within the recordings are labeled with superfluous behaviors. Despite that, with a careful combination of recent machine learning techniques, we achieve 96.4% classification accuracy. This suggests that orcas do use a semantic language. It is also promising for research and applications.

Stochastic evolution equations describing the dynamics of systems under the influence of both deterministic and stochastic forces are prevalent in all fields of science. Yet, identifying these systems from sparse-in-time observations remains still a challenging endeavour. Existing approaches focus either on the temporal structure of the observations by relying on conditional expectations, discarding thereby information ingrained in the geometry of the system's invariant density; or employ geometric approximations of the invariant density, which are nevertheless restricted to systems with conservative forces. Here we propose a method that reconciles these two paradigms. We introduce a new data-driven path augmentation scheme that takes the local observation geometry into account. By employing non-parametric inference on the augmented paths, we can efficiently identify the deterministic driving forces of the underlying system for systems observed at low sampling rates.

Sky-image-based solar forecasting using deep learning has been recognized as a promising approach in reducing the uncertainty in solar power generation. However, one of the biggest challenges is the lack of massive and diversified sky image samples. In this study, we present a comprehensive survey of open-source ground-based sky image datasets for very short-term solar forecasting (i.e., forecasting horizon less than 30 minutes), as well as related research areas which can potentially help improve solar forecasting methods, including cloud segmentation, cloud classification and cloud motion prediction. We first identify 72 open-source sky image datasets that satisfy the needs of machine/deep learning. Then a database of information about various aspects of the identified datasets is constructed. To evaluate each surveyed datasets, we further develop a multi-criteria ranking system based on 8 dimensions of the datasets which could have important impacts on usage of the data. Finally, we provide insights on the usage of these datasets for different applications. We hope this paper can provide an overview for researchers who are looking for datasets for very short-term solar forecasting and related areas.

The problem of broad practical interest in spatiotemporal data analysis, i.e., discovering interpretable dynamic patterns from spatiotemporal data, is studied in this paper. Towards this end, we develop a time-varying reduced-rank vector autoregression (VAR) model whose coefficient matrices are parameterized by low-rank tensor factorization. Benefiting from the tensor factorization structure, the proposed model can simultaneously achieve model compression and pattern discovery. In particular, the proposed model allows one to characterize nonstationarity and time-varying system behaviors underlying spatiotemporal data. To evaluate the proposed model, extensive experiments are conducted on various spatiotemporal data representing different nonlinear dynamical systems, including fluid dynamics, sea surface temperature, USA surface temperature, and NYC taxi trips. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of modeling spatiotemporal data and characterizing spatial/temporal patterns with the proposed model. In the spatial context, the spatial patterns can be automatically extracted and intuitively characterized by the spatial modes. In the temporal context, the complex time-varying system behaviors can be revealed by the temporal modes in the proposed model. Thus, our model lays an insightful foundation for understanding complex spatiotemporal data in real-world dynamical systems. The adapted datasets and Python implementation are publicly available at https://github.com/xinychen/vars.

Although current deep learning techniques have yielded superior performance on various computer vision tasks, yet they are still vulnerable to adversarial examples. Adversarial training and its variants have been shown to be the most effective approaches to defend against adversarial examples. These methods usually regularize the difference between output probabilities for an adversarial and its corresponding natural example. However, it may have a negative impact if the model misclassifies a natural example. To circumvent this issue, we propose a novel adversarial training scheme that encourages the model to produce similar outputs for an adversarial example and its ``inverse adversarial'' counterpart. These samples are generated to maximize the likelihood in the neighborhood of natural examples. Extensive experiments on various vision datasets and architectures demonstrate that our training method achieves state-of-the-art robustness as well as natural accuracy. Furthermore, using a universal version of inverse adversarial examples, we improve the performance of single-step adversarial training techniques at a low computational cost.