A millennium of endeavors to fully recognize and foresee the evolution of dynamic environments has produced many mathematical models for forecasting, and information-gathering techniques, but also exceptionally complicated computational systems. Predefined complicated realities called hyperchaotic frameworks [1] demonstrate unpredictable sequences of behavior over time and sometimes defy standards. These events' temporal and spatial relationships can be compared to physiological kinetics [2]. Several complicated frameworks are currently developed to comprehend spontaneous incidents, their erratic conduct, and how changing the circumstances of actual events may result in an unanticipated shift in the result. Over the duration of the past couple of eons, the objective of being able to understand and anticipate unpredictable actions has been accomplished with the aid of innovations in technology [3] and fundamental principles [4].

Satellite altimeter observations retrieved since 1993 show that the global mean sea level is rising at an unprecedented rate (3.4mm/year). With almost three decades of observations, we can now investigate the contributions of anthropogenic climate-change signals such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, and biomass burning in this rising sea level. We use machine learning (ML) to investigate future patterns of sea level change. To understand the extent of contributions from the climate-change signals, and to help in forecasting sea level change in the future, we turn to climate model simulations. This work presents a machine learning framework that exploits both satellite observations and climate model simulations to generate sea level rise projections at a 2-degree resolution spatial grid, 30 years into the future. We train fully connected neural networks (FCNNs) to predict altimeter values through a non-linear fusion of the climate model hindcasts (for 1993-2019). The learned FCNNs are then applied to future climate model projections to predict future sea level patterns. We propose segmenting our spatial dataset into meaningful clusters and show that clustering helps to improve predictions of our ML model.

This paper presents a deep learning architecture for nowcasting of precipitation almost globally every 30 min with a 4-hour lead time. The architecture fuses a U-Net and a convolutional long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network and is trained using data from the Integrated MultisatellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and a few key precipitation drivers from the Global Forecast System (GFS). The impacts of different training loss functions, including the mean-squared error (regression) and the focal-loss (classification), on the quality of precipitation nowcasts are studied. The results indicate that the regression network performs well in capturing light precipitation (below 1.6 mm/hr), but the classification network can outperform the regression network for nowcasting of precipitation extremes (>8 mm/hr), in terms of the critical success index (CSI).. Using the Wasserstein distance, it is shown that the predicted precipitation by the classification network has a closer class probability distribution to the IMERG than the regression network. It is uncovered that the inclusion of the physical variables can improve precipitation nowcasting, especially at longer lead times in both networks. Taking IMERG as a relative reference, a multi-scale analysis in terms of fractions skill score (FSS), shows that the nowcasting machine remains skillful (FSS > 0.5) at the resolution of 10 km compared to 50 km for GFS. For precipitation rates greater than 4~mm/hr, only the classification network remains FSS-skillful on scales greater than 50 km within a 2-hour lead time.

'Data' plays a central role in data-driven methods, but is not often the subject of focus in investigations of machine learning algorithms as applied to Earth System Modeling related problems. Here we consider the case of eddy-mean interaction in rotating stratified turbulence in the presence of lateral boundaries, a problem of relevance to ocean modeling, where the eddy fluxes contain dynamically inert rotational components that are expected to contaminate the learning process. An often utilized choice in the literature is to learn from the divergence of the eddy fluxes. Here we provide theoretical arguments and numerical evidence that learning from the eddy fluxes with the rotational component appropriately filtered out results in models with comparable or better skill, but substantially improved robustness. If we simply want a data-driven model to have predictive skill then the choice of data choice and/or quality may not be critical, but we argue it is highly desirable and perhaps even necessary if we want to leverage data-driven methods to aid in discovering unknown or hidden physical processes within the data itself.

Layer-wise relevance propagation (LRP) is a widely used and powerful technique to reveal insights into various artificial neural network (ANN) architectures. LRP is often used in the context of image classification. The aim is to understand, which parts of the input sample have highest relevance and hence most influence on the model prediction. Relevance can be traced back through the network to attribute a certain score to each input pixel. Relevance scores are then combined and displayed as heat maps and give humans an intuitive visual understanding of classification models. Opening the black box to understand the classification engine in great detail is essential for domain experts to gain trust in ANN models. However, there are pitfalls in terms of model-inherent artifacts included in the obtained relevance maps, that can easily be missed. But for a valid interpretation, these artifacts must not be ignored. Here, we apply and revise LRP on various ANN architectures trained as classifiers on geospatial and synthetic data. Depending on the network architecture, we show techniques to control model focus and give guidance to improve the quality of obtained relevance maps to separate facts from artifacts.

Sea surface temperature (SST) is an essential climate variable that can be measured via ground truth, remote sensing, or hybrid model methodologies. Here, we celebrate SST surveillance progress via the application of a few relevant technological advances from the late 20th and early 21st century. We further develop our existing water cycle observation framework, Flux to Flow (F2F), to fuse AMSR-E and MODIS into a higher resolution product with the goal of capturing gradients and filling cloud gaps that are otherwise unavailable. Our neural network architecture is constrained to a deep convolutional residual regressive neural network. We utilize three snapshots of twelve monthly SST measurements in 2010 as measured by the passive microwave radiometer AMSR-E, the visible and infrared monitoring MODIS instrument, and the in situ Argo dataset ISAS. The performance of the platform and success of this approach is evaluated using the root mean squared error (RMSE) metric. We determine that the 1:1 configuration of input and output data and a large observation region is too challenging for the single compute node and dcrrnn structure as is. When constrained to a single 100 x 100 pixel region and a small training dataset, the algorithm improves from the baseline experiment covering a much larger geography. For next discrete steps, we envision the consideration of a large input range with a very small output range. Furthermore, we see the need to integrate land and sea variables before performing computer vision tasks like those within. Finally, we see parallelization as necessary to overcome the compute obstacles we encountered.

Tensor data analysis allows researchers to uncover novel patterns and relationships that cannot be obtained from matrix data alone. The information inferred from the patterns provides valuable insights into disease progression, bioproduction processes, weather fluctuations, and group dynamics. However, spurious and redundant patterns hamper this process. This work aims at proposing a statistical frame to assess the probability of patterns in tensor data to deviate from null expectations, extending well-established principles for assessing the statistical significance of patterns in matrix data. A comprehensive discussion on binomial testing for false positive discoveries is entailed at the light of: variable dependencies, temporal dependencies and misalignments, and \textit{p}-value corrections under the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure. Results gathered from the application of state-of-the-art triclustering algorithms over distinct real-world case studies in biochemical and biotechnological domains confer validity to the proposed statistical frame while revealing vulnerabilities of some triclustering searches. The proposed assessment can be incorporated into existing triclustering algorithms to mitigate false positive/spurious discoveries and further prune the search space, reducing their computational complexity. Availability: The code is freely available at https://github.com/JupitersMight/TriSig under the MIT license.

Environmental sensors are crucial for monitoring weather conditions and the impacts of climate change. However, it is challenging to place sensors in a way that maximises the informativeness of their measurements, particularly in remote regions like Antarctica. Probabilistic machine learning models can suggest informative sensor placements by finding sites that maximally reduce prediction uncertainty. Gaussian process (GP) models are widely used for this purpose, but they struggle with capturing complex non-stationary behaviour and scaling to large datasets. This paper proposes using a convolutional Gaussian neural process (ConvGNP) to address these issues. A ConvGNP uses neural networks to parameterise a joint Gaussian distribution at arbitrary target locations, enabling flexibility and scalability. Using simulated surface air temperature anomaly over Antarctica as training data, the ConvGNP learns spatial and seasonal non-stationarities, outperforming a non-stationary GP baseline. In a simulated sensor placement experiment, the ConvGNP better predicts the performance boost obtained from new observations than GP baselines, leading to more informative sensor placements. We contrast our approach with physics-based sensor placement methods and propose future steps towards an operational sensor placement recommendation system. Our work could help to realise environmental digital twins that actively direct measurement sampling to improve the digital representation of reality.

Marine chlorophyll which is present within phytoplankton are the basis of photosynthesis and they have a high significance in sustaining ecological balance as they highly contribute toward global primary productivity and comes under the food chain of many marine organisms. Imbalance in the concentrations of phytoplankton can disrupt the ecological balance. The growth of phytoplankton depends upon the optimum concentrations of physiochemical constituents like iron, nitrates, phosphates, pH level, salinity, etc. and deviations from an ideal concentration can affect the growth of phytoplankton which can ultimately disrupt the ecosystem at a large scale. Thus the analysis of such constituents has high significance to estimate the probable growth of marine phytoplankton. The advancements of remote sensing technologies have improved the scope to remotely study the physiochemical constituents on a global scale. The machine learning techniques have made it possible to predict the marine chlorophyll levels based on physiochemical properties and deep learning helped to do the same but in a more advanced manner simulating the working principle of a human brain. In this study, we have used machine learning and deep learning for the Bay of Bengal to establish a regression model of chlorophyll levels based on physiochemical features and discussed its reliability and performance for different regression models. This could help to estimate the amount of chlorophyll present in water bodies based on physiochemical features so we can plan early in case there arises a possibility of disruption in the ecosystem due to imbalance in marine phytoplankton.

The increasing prevalence of network data in a vast variety of fields and the need to extract useful information out of them have spurred fast developments in related models and algorithms. Among the various learning tasks with network data, community detection, the discovery of node clusters or "communities," has arguably received the most attention in the scientific community. In many real-world applications, the network data often come with additional information in the form of node or edge covariates that should ideally be leveraged for inference. In this paper, we add to a limited literature on community detection for networks with covariates by proposing a Bayesian stochastic block model with a covariate-dependent random partition prior. Under our prior, the covariates are explicitly expressed in specifying the prior distribution on the cluster membership. Our model has the flexibility of modeling uncertainties of all the parameter estimates including the community membership. Importantly, and unlike the majority of existing methods, our model has the ability to learn the number of the communities via posterior inference without having to assume it to be known. Our model can be applied to community detection in both dense and sparse networks, with both categorical and continuous covariates, and our MCMC algorithm is very efficient with good mixing properties. We demonstrate the superior performance of our model over existing models in a comprehensive simulation study and an application to two real datasets.