Accurate predictive models are crucial for analysing COVID-19 mortality trends. This study evaluates the impact of a custom data preprocessing pipeline on ten machine learning models predicting COVID-19 mortality using data from Our World in Data (OWID). Our pipeline differs from a standard preprocessing pipeline through four key steps. Firstly, it transforms weekly reported totals into daily updates, correcting reporting biases and providing more accurate estimates. Secondly, it uses localised outlier detection and processing to preserve data variance and enhance accuracy. Thirdly, it utilises computational dependencies among columns to ensure data consistency. Finally, it incorporates an iterative feature selection process to optimise the feature set and improve model performance. Results show a significant improvement with the custom pipeline: the MLP Regressor achieved a test RMSE of 66.556 and a test R-squared of 0.991, surpassing the DecisionTree Regressor from the standard pipeline, which had a test RMSE of 222.858 and a test R-squared of 0.817. These findings highlight the importance of tailored preprocessing techniques in enhancing predictive modelling accuracy for COVID-19 mortality. Although specific to this study, these methodologies offer valuable insights into diverse datasets and domains, improving predictive performance across various contexts.

Reservoir Computing (RC) models, a subclass of recurrent neural networks, are distinguished by their fixed, non-trainable input layer and dynamically coupled reservoir, with only the static readout layer being trained. This design circumvents the issues associated with backpropagating error signals through time, thereby enhancing both stability and training efficiency. RC models have been successfully applied across a broad range of application domains. Crucially, they have been demonstrated to be universal approximators of time-invariant dynamic filters with fading memory, under various settings of approximation norms and input driving sources. Simple Cycle Reservoirs (SCR) represent a specialized class of RC models with a highly constrained reservoir architecture, characterized by uniform ring connectivity and binary input-to-reservoir weights with an aperiodic sign pattern. For linear reservoirs, given the reservoir size, the reservoir construction has only one degree of freedom -- the reservoir cycle weight. Such architectures are particularly amenable to hardware implementations without significant performance degradation in many practical tasks. In this study we endow these observations with solid theoretical foundations by proving that SCRs operating in real domain are universal approximators of time-invariant dynamic filters with fading memory. Our results supplement recent research showing that SCRs in the complex domain can approximate, to arbitrary precision, any unrestricted linear reservoir with a non-linear readout. We furthermore introduce a novel method to drastically reduce the number of SCR units, making such highly constrained architectures natural candidates for low-complexity hardware implementations. Our findings are supported by empirical studies on real-world time series datasets.

Estimation of cardiovascular model parameters from electronic health records (EHR) poses a significant challenge primarily due to lack of identifiability. Structural non-identifiability arises when a manifold in the space of parameters is mapped to a common output, while practical non-identifiability can result due to limited data, model misspecification, or noise corruption. To address the resulting ill-posed inverse problem, optimization-based or Bayesian inference approaches typically use regularization, thereby limiting the possibility of discovering multiple solutions. In this study, we use inVAErt networks, a neural network-based, data-driven framework for enhanced digital twin analysis of stiff dynamical systems. We demonstrate the flexibility and effectiveness of inVAErt networks in the context of physiological inversion of a six-compartment lumped parameter hemodynamic model from synthetic data to real data with missing components.

Understanding is a crucial yet elusive concept in artificial intelligence (AI). This work proposes a framework for analyzing understanding based on the notion of composability. Given any subject (e.g., a person or an AI), we suggest characterizing its understanding of an object in terms of its ability to process (compose) relevant inputs into satisfactory outputs from the perspective of a verifier. This highly universal framework can readily apply to non-human subjects, such as AIs, non-human animals, and institutions. Further, we propose methods for analyzing the inputs that enhance output quality in compositions, which we call catalysts. We show how the structure of a subject can be revealed by analyzing its components that act as catalysts and argue that a subject's learning ability can be regarded as its ability to compose inputs into its inner catalysts. Finally we examine the importance of learning ability for AIs to attain general intelligence. Our analysis indicates that models capable of generating outputs that can function as their own catalysts, such as language models, establish a foundation for potentially overcoming existing limitations in AI understanding.

With the rise of neural networks in various domains, multi-task learning (MTL) gained significant relevance. A key challenge in MTL is balancing individual task losses during neural network training to improve performance and efficiency through knowledge sharing across tasks. To address these challenges, we propose a novel task-weighting method by building on the most prevalent approach of Uncertainty Weighting and computing analytically optimal uncertainty-based weights, normalized by a softmax function with tunable temperature. Our approach yields comparable results to the combinatorially prohibitive, brute-force approach of Scalarization while offering a more cost-effective yet high-performing alternative. We conduct an extensive benchmark on various datasets and architectures. Our method consistently outperforms six other common weighting methods. Furthermore, we report noteworthy experimental findings for the practical application of MTL. For example, larger networks diminish the influence of weighting methods, and tuning the weight decay has a low impact compared to the learning rate.

Modern artificial intelligence (AI) systems are powered by foundation models. This paper presents a new set of foundation models, called Llama 3. It is a herd of language models that natively support multilinguality, coding, reasoning, and tool usage. Our largest model is a dense Transformer with 405B parameters and a context window of up to 128K tokens. This paper presents an extensive empirical evaluation of Llama 3. We find that Llama 3 delivers comparable quality to leading language models such as GPT-4 on a plethora of tasks. We publicly release Llama 3, including pre-trained and post-trained versions of the 405B parameter language model and our Llama Guard 3 model for input and output safety. The paper also presents the results of experiments in which we integrate image, video, and speech capabilities into Llama 3 via a compositional approach. We observe this approach performs competitively with the state-of-the-art on image, video, and speech recognition tasks. The resulting models are not yet being broadly released as they are still under development.

The forthcoming generation of wireless technology, 6G, promises a revolutionary leap beyond traditional data-centric services. It aims to usher in an era of ubiquitous intelligent services, where everything is interconnected and intelligent. This vision requires the seamless integration of three fundamental modules: Sensing for information acquisition, communication for information sharing, and computation for information processing and decision-making. These modules are intricately linked, especially in complex tasks such as edge learning and inference. However, the performance of these modules is interdependent, creating a resource competition for time, energy, and bandwidth. Existing techniques like integrated communication and computation (ICC), integrated sensing and computation (ISC), and integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) have made partial strides in addressing this challenge, but they fall short of meeting the extreme performance requirements. To overcome these limitations, it is essential to develop new techniques that comprehensively integrate sensing, communication, and computation. This integrated approach, known as Integrated Sensing, Communication, and Computation (ISCC), offers a systematic perspective for enhancing task performance. This paper begins with a comprehensive survey of historic and related techniques such as ICC, ISC, and ISAC, highlighting their strengths and limitations. It then explores the state-of-the-art signal designs for ISCC, along with network resource management strategies specifically tailored for ISCC. Furthermore, this paper discusses the exciting research opportunities that lie ahead for implementing ISCC in future advanced networks. By embracing ISCC, we can unlock the full potential of intelligent connectivity, paving the way for groundbreaking applications and services.

Retrieval augmented generation (RAG) is a process where a large language model (LLM) retrieves useful information from a database and then generates the responses. It is becoming popular in enterprise settings for daily business operations. For example, Copilot for Microsoft 365 has accumulated millions of businesses. However, the security implications of adopting such RAG-based systems are unclear. In this paper, we introduce ConfusedPilot, a class of security vulnerabilities of RAG systems that confuse Copilot and cause integrity and confidentiality violations in its responses. First, we investigate a vulnerability that embeds malicious text in the modified prompt in RAG, corrupting the responses generated by the LLM. Second, we demonstrate a vulnerability that leaks secret data, which leverages the caching mechanism during retrieval. Third, we investigate how both vulnerabilities can be exploited to propagate misinformation within the enterprise and ultimately impact its operations, such as sales and manufacturing. We also discuss the root cause of these attacks by investigating the architecture of a RAG-based system. This study highlights the security vulnerabilities in today's RAG-based systems and proposes design guidelines to secure future RAG-based systems.

Multimodal large language models (LLMs) have achieved notable success across various domains, while research in the medical field has largely focused on unimodal images. Meanwhile, current general-domain multimodal models for videos still lack the capabilities to understand and engage in conversations about surgical videos. One major contributing factor is the absence of datasets in the surgical field. In this paper, we create a new dataset, Surg-QA, consisting of 102,000 surgical video-instruction pairs, the largest of its kind so far. To build such a dataset, we propose a novel two-stage question-answer generation pipeline with LLM to learn surgical knowledge in a structured manner from the publicly available surgical lecture videos. The pipeline breaks down the generation process into two stages to significantly reduce the task complexity, allowing us to use a more affordable, locally deployed open-source LLM than the premium paid LLM services. It also mitigates the risk of LLM hallucinations during question-answer generation, thereby enhancing the overall quality of the generated data. We further train LLaVA-Surg, a novel vision-language conversational assistant capable of answering open-ended questions about surgical videos, on this Surg-QA dataset, and conduct comprehensive evaluations on zero-shot surgical video question-answering tasks. We show that LLaVA-Surg significantly outperforms all previous general-domain models, demonstrating exceptional multimodal conversational skills in answering open-ended questions about surgical videos. We will release our code, model, and the instruction-tuning dataset.

Causal discovery from time-series data aims to capture both intra-slice (contemporaneous) and inter-slice (time-lagged) causality between variables within the temporal chain, which is crucial for various scientific disciplines. Compared to causal discovery from non-time-series data, causal discovery from time-series data necessitates more serialized samples with a larger amount of observed time steps. To address the challenges, we propose a novel gradient-based causal discovery approach STIC, which focuses on \textbf{S}hort-\textbf{T}erm \textbf{I}nvariance using \textbf{C}onvolutional neural networks to uncover the causal relationships from time-series data. Specifically, STIC leverages both the short-term time and mechanism invariance of causality within each window observation, which possesses the property of independence, to enhance sample efficiency. Furthermore, we construct two causal convolution kernels, which correspond to the short-term time and mechanism invariance respectively, to estimate the window causal graph. To demonstrate the necessity of convolutional neural networks for causal discovery from time-series data, we theoretically derive the equivalence between convolution and the underlying generative principle of time-series data under the assumption that the additive noise model is identifiable. Experimental evaluations conducted on both synthetic and FMRI benchmark datasets demonstrate that our STIC outperforms baselines significantly and achieves the state-of-the-art performance, particularly when the datasets contain a limited number of observed time steps. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/HITshenrj/STIC}.