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Real-Time Bus Departure Prediction Using Neural Networks for Smart IoT Public Bus Transit

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bus transit plays a vital role in urban public transportation but often struggles to provide accurate and reliable departure times. This leads to delays, passenger dissatisfaction, and decreased ridership, particularly in transit-dependent areas. A major challenge lies in the discrepancy between actual and scheduled bus departure times, which disrupts timetables and impacts overall operational efficiency. To address these challenges, this paper presents a neural network-based approach for real-time bus departure time prediction tailored for smart IoT public transit applications. We leverage AI-driven models to enhance the accuracy of bus schedules by preprocessing data, engineering relevant features, and implementing a fully connected neural network that utilizes historical departure data to predict departure times at subsequent stops. In our case study analyzing bus data from Boston, we observed an average deviation of nearly 4 minutes from scheduled times. However, our model, evaluated across 151 bus routes, demonstrates a significant improvement, predicting departure time deviations with an accuracy of under 80 seconds. This advancement not only improves the reliability of bus transit schedules but also plays a crucial role in enabling smart bus systems and IoT applications within public transit networks. By providing more accurate real-time predictions, our approach can facilitate the integration of IoT devices, such as smart bus stops and passenger information systems, that rely on precise data for optimal performance.


One-D-Piece: Image Tokenizer Meets Quality-Controllable Compression

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current image tokenization methods require a large number of tokens to capture the information contained within images. Although the amount of information varies across images, most image tokenizers only support fixed-length tokenization, leading to inefficiency in token allocation. In this study, we introduce One-D-Piece, a discrete image tokenizer designed for variable-length tokenization, achieving quality-controllable mechanism. To enable variable compression rate, we introduce a simple but effective regularization mechanism named "Tail Token Drop" into discrete one-dimensional image tokenizers. This method encourages critical information to concentrate at the head of the token sequence, enabling support of variadic tokenization, while preserving state-of-the-art reconstruction quality. We evaluate our tokenizer across multiple reconstruction quality metrics and find that it delivers significantly better perceptual quality than existing quality-controllable compression methods, including JPEG and WebP, at smaller byte sizes. Furthermore, we assess our tokenizer on various downstream computer vision tasks, including image classification, object detection, semantic segmentation, and depth estimation, confirming its adaptability to numerous applications compared to other variable-rate methods. Our approach demonstrates the versatility of variable-length discrete image tokenization, establishing a new paradigm in both compression efficiency and reconstruction performance. Finally, we validate the effectiveness of tail token drop via detailed analysis of tokenizers.


A Tensor Low-Rank Approximation for Value Functions in Multi-Task Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In pursuit of reinforcement learning systems that could train in physical environments, we investigate multi-task approaches as a means to alleviate the need for massive data acquisition. In a tabular scenario where the Q-functions are collected across tasks, we model our learning problem as optimizing a higher order tensor structure. Recognizing that close-related tasks may require similar actions, our proposed method imposes a low-rank condition on this aggregated Q-tensor. The rationale behind this approach to multi-task learning is that the low-rank structure enforces the notion of similarity, without the need to explicitly prescribe which tasks are similar, but inferring this information from a reduced amount of data simultaneously with the stochastic optimization of the Q-tensor. The efficiency of our low-rank tensor approach to multi-task learning is demonstrated in two numerical experiments, first in a benchmark environment formed by a collection of inverted pendulums, and then into a practical scenario involving multiple wireless communication devices.


An Integrated Platform for Studying Learning with Intelligent Tutoring Systems: CTAT+TutorShop

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Intelligent tutoring systems (ITSs) are effective in helping students learn; further research could make them even more effective. Particularly desirable is research into how students learn with these systems, how these systems best support student learning, and what learning sciences principles are key in ITSs. CTAT+Tutorshop provides a full stack integrated platform that facilitates a complete research lifecycle with ITSs, which includes using ITS data to discover learner challenges, to identify opportunities for system improvements, and to conduct experimental studies. The platform includes authoring tools to support and accelerate development of ITS, which provide automatic data logging in a format compatible with DataShop, an independent site that supports the analysis of ed tech log data to study student learnings. Among the many technology platforms that exist to support learning sciences research, CTAT+Tutorshop may be the only one that offers researchers the possibility to author elements of ITSs, or whole ITSs, as part of designing studies. This platform has been used to develop and conduct an estimated 147 research studies which have run in a wide variety of laboratory and real-world educational settings, including K-12 and higher education, and have addressed a wide range of research questions. This paper presents five case studies of research conducted on the CTAT+Tutorshop platform, and summarizes what has been accomplished and what is possible for future researchers. We reflect on the distinctive elements of this platform that have made it so effective in facilitating a wide range of ITS research.


Democratizing AI Governance: Balancing Expertise and Public Participation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The development and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, with their profound societal impacts, raise critical challenges for governance. Historically, technological innovations have been governed by concentrated expertise with limited public input. However, AI's pervasive influence across domains such as healthcare, employment, and justice necessitates inclusive governance approaches. This article explores the tension between expert-led oversight and democratic participation, analyzing models of participatory and deliberative democracy. Using case studies from France and Brazil, we highlight how inclusive frameworks can bridge the gap between technical complexity and public accountability. Recommendations are provided for integrating these approaches into a balanced governance model tailored to the European Union, emphasizing transparency, diversity, and adaptive regulation to ensure that AI governance reflects societal values while maintaining technical rigor. This analysis underscores the importance of hybrid frameworks that unite expertise and public voice in shaping the future of AI policy.


Sympathy over Polarization: A Computational Discourse Analysis of Social Media Posts about the July 2024 Trump Assassination Attempt

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

On July 13, 2024, at the Trump rally in Pennsylvania, someone attempted to assassinate Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump. This attempt sparked a large-scale discussion on social media. We collected posts from X (formerly known as Twitter) one week before and after the assassination attempt and aimed to model the short-term effects of such a ``shock'' on public opinions and discussion topics. Specifically, our study addresses three key questions: first, we investigate how public sentiment toward Donald Trump shifts over time and across regions (RQ1) and examine whether the assassination attempt itself significantly affects public attitudes, independent of the existing political alignments (RQ2). Finally, we explore the major themes in online conversations before and after the crisis, illustrating how discussion topics evolved in response to this politically charged event (RQ3). By integrating large language model-based sentiment analysis, difference-in-differences modeling, and topic modeling techniques, we find that following the attempt the public response was broadly sympathetic to Trump rather than polarizing, despite baseline ideological and regional disparities.


Managed-Retention Memory: A New Class of Memory for the AI Era

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI clusters today are one of the major uses of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). However, HBM is suboptimal for AI workloads for several reasons. Analysis shows HBM is overprovisioned on write performance, but underprovisioned on density and read bandwidth, and also has significant energy per bit overheads. It is also expensive, with lower yield than DRAM due to manufacturing complexity. We propose a new memory class: Managed-Retention Memory (MRM), which is more optimized to store key data structures for AI inference workloads. We believe that MRM may finally provide a path to viability for technologies that were originally proposed to support Storage Class Memory (SCM). These technologies traditionally offered long-term persistence (10+ years) but provided poor IO performance and/or endurance. MRM makes different trade-offs, and by understanding the workload IO patterns, MRM foregoes long-term data retention and write performance for better potential performance on the metrics important for these workloads.


Learnings from Scaling Visual Tokenizers for Reconstruction and Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Visual tokenization via auto-encoding empowers state-of-the-art image and video generative models by compressing pixels into a latent space. Although scaling Transformer-based generators has been central to recent advances, the tokenizer component itself is rarely scaled, leaving open questions about how auto-encoder design choices influence both its objective of reconstruction and downstream generative performance. Our work aims to conduct an exploration of scaling in auto-encoders to fill in this blank. To facilitate this exploration, we replace the typical convolutional backbone with an enhanced Vision Transformer architecture for Tokenization (ViTok). We train ViTok on large-scale image and video datasets far exceeding ImageNet-1K, removing data constraints on tokenizer scaling. We first study how scaling the auto-encoder bottleneck affects both reconstruction and generation -- and find that while it is highly correlated with reconstruction, its relationship with generation is more complex. We next explored the effect of separately scaling the auto-encoders' encoder and decoder on reconstruction and generation performance. Crucially, we find that scaling the encoder yields minimal gains for either reconstruction or generation, while scaling the decoder boosts reconstruction but the benefits for generation are mixed. Building on our exploration, we design ViTok as a lightweight auto-encoder that achieves competitive performance with state-of-the-art auto-encoders on ImageNet-1K and COCO reconstruction tasks (256p and 512p) while outperforming existing auto-encoders on 16-frame 128p video reconstruction for UCF-101, all with 2-5x fewer FLOPs. When integrated with Diffusion Transformers, ViTok demonstrates competitive performance on image generation for ImageNet-1K and sets new state-of-the-art benchmarks for class-conditional video generation on UCF-101.


Overshoot: Taking advantage of future gradients in momentum-based stochastic optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Overshoot is a novel, momentum-based stochastic gradient descent optimization method designed to enhance performance beyond standard and Nesterov's momentum. In conventional momentum methods, gradients from previous steps are aggregated with the gradient at current model weights before taking a step and updating the model. Rather than calculating gradient at the current model weights, Overshoot calculates the gradient at model weights shifted in the direction of the current momentum. This sacrifices the immediate benefit of using the gradient w.r.t. the exact model weights now, in favor of evaluating at a point, which will likely be more relevant for future updates. We show that incorporating this principle into momentum-based optimizers (SGD with momentum and Adam) results in faster convergence (saving on average at least 15% of steps). Overshoot consistently outperforms both standard and Nesterov's momentum across a wide range of tasks and integrates into popular momentum-based optimizers with zero memory and small computational overhead.


Intra-day Solar and Power Forecast for Optimization of Intraday Market Participation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The prediction of solar irradiance enhances reliability in photovoltaic (PV) solar plant generation and grid integration. In Colombia, PV plants face penalties if energy production deviates beyond governmental thresholds from intraday market offers. This research employs Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Bidirectional-LSTM (Bi-LSTM) models, utilizing meteorological data from a PV plant in El Paso, Cesar, Colombia, to predict solar irradiance with a 6-hour horizon and 10-minute resolution. While Bi-LSTM showed superior performance, the LSTM model achieved comparable results with significantly reduced training time (6 hours versus 18 hours), making it computationally advantageous. The LSTM predictions were averaged to create an hourly resolution model, evaluated using Mean Absolute Error, Root-Mean-Square Error, Normalized Root-Mean-Square Error, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error metrics. Comparison with the Global Forecast System (GFS) revealed similar performance, with both models effectively capturing daily solar irradiance patterns. The forecast model integrates with an Object-Oriented power production model, enabling accurate energy offers in the intraday market while minimizing penalty costs.