Performing interventions is a major challenge in economic policy-making. We propose causal strategic inference as a framework for conducting interventions and apply it to large, networked microfinance economies. The basic solution platform consists of modeling a microfinance market as a networked economy, learning the parameters of the model from the real-world microfinance data, and designing algorithms for various causal questions. For a special case of our model, we show that an equilibrium point always exists and that the equilibrium interest rates are unique. For the general case, we give a constructive proof of the existence of an equilibrium point. Our empirical study is based on the microfinance data from Bangladesh and Bolivia, which we use to first learn our models. We show that causal strategic inference can assist policy-makers by evaluating the outcomes of various types of interventions, such as removing a loss-making bank from the market, imposing an interest rate cap, and subsidizing banks.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates, robustness to over-fitting, and principled ways for tuning hyper-parameters. However the scalability of these models to big datasets remains an active topic of research. We introduce a novel re-parametrisation of variational inference for sparse GP regression and latent variable models that allows for an efficient distributed algorithm. This is done by exploiting the decoupling of the data given the inducing points to re-formulate the evidence lower bound in a Map-Reduce setting. We show that the inference scales well with data and computational resources, while preserving a balanced distribution of the load among the nodes. We further demonstrate the utility in scaling Gaussian processes to big data. We show that GP performance improves with increasing amounts of data in regression (on flight data with 2 million records) and latent variable modelling (on MNIST). The results show that GPs perform better than many common models often used for big data.

We investigate the problem of stochastic network design in bidirected trees. In this problem, an underlying phenomenon (e.g., a behavior, rumor, or disease) starts at multiple sources in a tree and spreads in both directions along its edges. Actions can be taken to increase the probability of propagation on edges, and the goal is to maximize the total amount of spread away from all sources. Our main result is a rounded dynamic programming approach that leads to a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme (FPTAS), that is, an algorithm that can find (1 ɛ)-optimal solutions for any problem instance in time polynomial in the input size and 1/ɛ. Our algorithm outperforms competing approaches on a motivating problem from computational sustainability to remove barriers in river networks to restore the health of aquatic ecosystems.

Looking back at our primate ancestors, it would be easy to assume that humans today have reached the final chapter of our evolution. However, many scientists believe that the way humans appear today is just the start of the story. Thanks to technology, space travel, and climate change, the world around us is changing faster than ever - and experts believe that humanity will change with it. Now, artificial intelligence (AI) reveals what the humans of the future might look like. With Google's ImageFX AI image generator, MailOnline has used predictions from leading scientists to imagine how the human race might evolve.

We develop collaborative topic Poisson factorization (CTPF), a generative model of articles and reader preferences. CTPF can be used to build recommender systems by learning from reader histories and content to recommend personalized articles of interest. In detail, CTPF models both reader behavior and article texts with Poisson distributions, connecting the latent topics that represent the texts with the latent preferences that represent the readers. This provides better recommendations than competing methods and gives an interpretable latent space for understanding patterns of readership. Further, we exploit stochastic variational inference to model massive real-world datasets. For example, we can fit CPTF to the full arXiv usage dataset, which contains over 43 million ratings and 42 million word counts, within a day. We demonstrate empirically that our model outperforms several baselines, including the previous state-of-the art approach.

Distributed machine learning has typically been approached from a data parallel perspective, where big data are partitioned to multiple workers and an algorithm is executed concurrently over different data subsets under various synchronization schemes to ensure speed-up and/or correctness. A sibling problem that has received relatively less attention is how to ensure efficient and correct model parallel execution of ML algorithms, where parameters of an ML program are partitioned to different workers and undergone concurrent iterative updates. We argue that model and data parallelisms impose rather different challenges for system design, algorithmic adjustment, and theoretical analysis. In this paper, we develop a system for model-parallelism, STRADS, that provides a programming abstraction for scheduling parameter updates by discovering and leveraging changing structural properties of ML programs. STRADS enables a flexible tradeoff between scheduling efficiency and fidelity to intrinsic dependencies within the models, and improves memory efficiency of distributed ML. We demonstrate the efficacy of model-parallel algorithms implemented on STRADS versus popular implementations for topic modeling, matrix factorization, and Lasso.

Modern applications in sensitive domains such as biometrics and medicine frequently require the use of non-decomposable loss functions such as precision@k, F-measure etc. Compared to point loss functions such as hinge-loss, these offer much more fine grained control over prediction, but at the same time present novel challenges in terms of algorithm design and analysis. In this work we initiate a study of online learning techniques for such non-decomposable loss functions with an aim to enable incremental learning as well as design scalable solvers for batch problems. To this end, we propose an online learning framework for such loss functions. Our model enjoys several nice properties, chief amongst them being the existence of efficient online learning algorithms with sublinear regret and online to batch conversion bounds. Our model is a provable extension of existing online learning models for point loss functions.

While topic models can discover patterns of word usage in large corpora, it is difficult to meld this unsupervised structure with noisy, human-provided labels, especially when the label space is large.

This paper presents foundational theoretical results on distributed parameter estimation for undirected probabilistic graphical models. It introduces a general condition on composite likelihood decompositions of these models which guarantees the global consistency of distributed estimators, provided the local estimators are consistent.

Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) is a popular generative model of various objects such as texts and images, where an object is expressed as a mixture of latent topics. In this paper, we theoretically investigate variational Bayesian (VB) learning in LDA. More specifically, we analytically derive the leading term of the VB free energy under an asymptotic setup, and show that there exist transition thresholds in Dirichlet hyperparameters around which the sparsity-inducing behavior drastically changes. Then we further theoretically reveal the notable phenomenon that VB tends to induce weaker sparsity than MAP in the LDA model, which is opposed to other models. We experimentally demonstrate the practical validity of our asymptotic theory on real-world Last.FM music data.