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Large-scale probabilistic predictors with and without guarantees of validity

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper studies theoretically and empirically a method of turning machine-learning algorithms into probabilistic predictors that automatically enjoys a property of validity (perfect calibration) and is computationally efficient. The price to pay for perfect calibration is that these probabilistic predictors produce imprecise (in practice, almost precise for large data sets) probabilities. When these imprecise probabilities are merged into precise probabilities, the resulting predictors, while losing the theoretical property of perfect calibration, are consistently more accurate than the existing methods in empirical studies.


Hessian-free Optimization for Learning Deep Multidimensional Recurrent Neural Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Multidimensional recurrent neural networks (MDRNNs) have shown a remarkable performance in the area of speech and handwriting recognition. The performance of an MDRNN is improved by further increasing its depth, and the difficulty of learning the deeper network is overcome by using Hessian-free (HF) optimization. Given that connectionist temporal classification (CTC) is utilized as an objective of learning an MDRNN for sequence labeling, the non-convexity of CTC poses a problem when applying HF to the network. As a solution, a convex approximation of CTC is formulated and its relationship with the EM algorithm and the Fisher information matrix is discussed. An MDRNN up to a depth of 15 layers is successfully trained using HF, resulting in an improved performance for sequence labeling.


Xbox Game Pass price increase angers players

BBC News

Fans have reacted angrily after Microsoft announced price increases to its Xbox Game Pass subscription service. The company announced that the most popular tier of its Netflix-style video games system - available to PC and Xbox players - would rise by more than 50% from £14.99 to £22.99 per month. Reacting on social media, loads of fans said they had cancelled their Game Pass subscriptions, with some reporting the service's cancellation page had crashed due to demand. BBC Newsbeat has asked Microsoft if the outage was linked to a surge in visits. In a blog post detailing the changes to Game Pass, Microsoft said it would offer three tiers - Essential (£10 per month), Premium (£14.99) and Ultimate (£22.99).


Learning Stationary Time Series using Gaussian Processes with Nonparametric Kernels

Neural Information Processing Systems

We introduce the Gaussian Process Convolution Model (GPCM), a two-stage nonparametric generative procedure to model stationary signals as the convolution between a continuous-time white-noise process and a continuous-time linear filter drawn from Gaussian process. The GPCM is a continuous-time nonparametric-window moving average process and, conditionally, is itself a Gaussian process with a nonparametric kernel defined in a probabilistic fashion. The generative model can be equivalently considered in the frequency domain, where the power spectral density of the signal is specified using a Gaussian process. One of the main contributions of the paper is to develop a novel variational free-energy approach based on inter-domain inducing variables that efficiently learns the continuous-time linear filter and infers the driving white-noise process. In turn, this scheme provides closed-form probabilistic estimates of the covariance kernel and the noise-free signal both in denoising and prediction scenarios. Additionally, the variational inference procedure provides closed-form expressions for the approximate posterior of the spectral density given the observed data, leading to new Bayesian nonparametric approaches to spectrum estimation. The proposed GPCM is validated using synthetic and real-world signals.


Forthcoming machine learning and AI seminars: October 2025 edition

AIHub

This post contains a list of the AI-related seminars that are scheduled to take place between 3 October and 30 November 2025. All events detailed here are free and open for anyone to attend virtually. Daniel Kuhn (EPFL) Association of European Operational Research Societies To receive the seminar link, sign up to the mailing list . Chia-Lin Wei (University of Washington) University of Michigan Medical School The seminar will be live-streamed on the DCMB YouTube Channel . Jannis Kurtz (University of Amsterdam) Association of European Operational Research Societies To receive the seminar link, sign up to the mailing list .


Inside the plane 'of the future' with TV screens instead of windows

Daily Mail - Science & tech

The UK's most scenic train routes revealed - and tickets start from just £4.20 Do YOU want to work from a sun lounger? It's never too late to book - a great holiday is just around the corner! Here's our edit of the best last-minute holiday destinations that everyone will LOVE The beloved Dorset hotel'in disrepair' set to finally make a comeback My night inside the world's biggest capsule hotel where stays start from just £30 Terrifying swing throws you through the air at 131ft in Scotland - would YOU pay £90 for it? Woman shares'genius' packing hacks that can save time and hassle on your next trip The Wetherspoons hotel that's been named one of the UK's best pubs - and it's on the beach The'indulgent' Christmas Day brunch at a London luxury hotel is returning - here's how much it will cost Where to find the 26-mile railway that changed train travel forever - and it's right here in the UK Why the'most beautiful country you've never heard of' in Central Asia should be next on your list Inside the world's smallest'divided island' - and how a lighthouse forced the borders to change Airline launches new holiday routes from the UK - including'Greece's best-kept secret' The UK's most historic holiday home revealed - and it's a former jail cell A futuristic £14.5million plane with TV screens instead of windows has been unveiled. The jet, called Phantom 3500, will use technology on the outside of the plane to provide immersive views.



Musk becomes world's first half-trillionaire

BBC News

Musk becomes world's first half-trillionaire Tesla boss Elon Musk has become the first person ever to achieve a net worth of more than $500bn (£370.9bn), The tech magnate's net worth briefly reached $500.1bn on Wednesday afternoon New York time, before dipping slightly to just over $499bn later in the day, the Forbes billionaires index reported. Alongside Tesla, valuations of his other ventures, including the artificial intelligence start-up xAI and rocket company SpaceX, have also reportedly climbed in recent months. According to Forbes' billionaires index, Oracle founder Larry Ellison is the world's second richest person, with a fortune of about $350.7bn. Mr Ellison briefly overtook Musk last month after shares in Oracle soared by more than 40%, boosted by the firm's surprisingly rosy outlook for its cloud infrastructure business and artificial intelligence (AI) deals.