This study presents a method to discover an outbreak of an infectious disease in a region for which data are missing, but which is at work as a disease spreader. Node discovery for the spread of an infectious disease is defined as discriminating between the nodes which are neighboring to a missing disease spreader node, and the rest, given a dataset on the number of cases. The spread is described by stochastic differential equations. A perturbation theory quantifies the impact of the missing spreader on the moments of the number of cases. Statistical discriminators examine the mid-body or tail-ends of the probability density function, and search for the disturbance from the missing spreader. They are tested with computationally synthesized datasets, and applied to the SARS outbreak and flu pandemic.

We address the cost-sensitive feature acquisition problem, where misclassifying an instance is costly but the expected misclassification cost can be reduced by acquiring the values of the missing features. Because acquiring the features is costly as well, the objective is to acquire the right set of features so that the sum of the feature acquisition cost and misclassification cost is minimized. We describe the Value of Information Lattice (VOILA), an optimal and efficient feature subset acquisition framework. Unlike the common practice, which is to acquire features greedily, VOILA can reason with subsets of features. VOILA efficiently searches the space of possible feature subsets by discovering and exploiting conditional independence properties between the features and it reuses probabilistic inference computations to further speed up the process. Through empirical evaluation on five medical datasets, we show that the greedy strategy is often reluctant to acquire features, as it cannot forecast the benefit of acquiring multiple features in combination.

The aim of Belief Merging is to aggregate possibly conflicting pieces of information issued from different sources. The quality of the resulting set is usually considered in terms of a closeness criterion between the resulting belief set and the initial belief sets. The notion of distance between belief sets is thus a crucial issue when we face the merging problem. The aim of this paper is twofold: introducing a syntactical way to calculate distances and proposing the use of a distance based on prime implicants and prime implicates that considers the importance of each propositional symbol in the belief set.

A collection of landmarks is complete if the cost of a minimum-cost hitting set equals h + and there is a minimum-cost hitting set that is an optimal relaxed plan. We present an algorithm for generating a complete collection of landmarks and we show that this algorithm can be extended into effective polytime heuristics for optimal and satisficing planning. The new admissible heuristics are compared with current state-of-the-art heuristics for optimal planning on benchmark problems from the IPC.

We present a software tool that is able to automatically translate an NP problem into a STRIPS problem such that the former problem has a solution iff the latter has one, a solution for the latter can be transformed into a solution for the former, and all this can be done efficiently. Moreover, the tool is built such that it only produces problems that belong to a fragment of STRIPS that is solvable in non-deterministic polynomial time, a fact that guarantees that the whole approach is not an overkill. This tool has interesting applications. For example, with the advancement of planning technology, it can be used as an off-the-shelf method to solve general NP problems with the help of planners and to automatically generate benchmark problems of known complexity in a systematic and controlled manner. Another interesting contribution is related to the area of Knowledge Engineering in which one of the goals is to devise automatic methods for using the available planning technology to solve real-life problems.

Real-time heuristic search is a standard approach to pathfind- ing when agents are required to make decisions in a bounded, very short period of time. An assumption usually made in the development and evaluation of real-time algorithms is that the environment is unknown. Nevertheless, in many interesting applications such as pathfinding for automnomous characters in video games, the environment is known in advance. Recent real-time search algorithms such as D LRTA* and kNN LRTA* exploit knowledge about the environment while pathfinding under real-time constraints. Key to those algorithms is the computation of subgoals in a preprocessing step. Subgoals are subsequently used in the online planning phase to obtain high-quality solutions. Preprocessing in those algorithms, however, requires significant computation. In this paper we propose a novel preprocessing algorithm that generates subgoals using a series of backward search episodes carried out from potential goals. The result of a single backward search episode is a tree of subgoals that we then use while planning online. We show the advantages of our approach over state-of-the-art algorithms by carrying out experiments on standard real-time search benchmarks.

In this paper we apply Conformal Prediction (CP) to the k-Nearest Neighbours Regression (k-NNR) algorithm and propose ways of extending the typical nonconformity measure used for regression so far. Unlike traditional regression methods which produce point predictions, Conformal Predictors output predictive regions that satisfy a given confidence level. The regions produced by any Conformal Predictor are automatically valid, however their tightness and therefore usefulness depends on the nonconformity measure used by each CP. In effect a nonconformity measure evaluates how strange a given example is compared to a set of other examples based on some traditional machine learning algorithm. We define six novel nonconformity measures based on the k-Nearest Neighbours Regression algorithm and develop the corresponding CPs following both the original (transductive) and the inductive CP approaches. A comparison of the predictive regions produced by our measures with those of the typical regression measure suggests that a major improvement in terms of predictive region tightness is achieved by the new measures.

This project describes the electricity demand and energy consumption management system and its application to Southern Peru smelter. It is composed of an hourly demand-forecasting module and of a simulation component for a plant electrical system. The first module was done using dynamic neural networks with backpropagation training algorithm; it is used to predict the electric power demanded every hour, with an error percentage below of 1%. This information allows efficient management of energy peak demands before this happen, distributing the raise of electric load to other hours or improving those equipments that increase the demand. The simulation module is based in advanced estimation techniques, such as: parametric estimation, neural network modeling, statistic regression and previously developed models, which simulates the electric behavior of the smelter plant. These modules facilitate electricity demand and consumption proper planning, because they allow knowing the behavior of the hourly demand and the consumption patterns of the plant, including the bill components, but also energy deficiencies and opportunities for improvement, based on analysis of information about equipments, processes and production plans, as well as maintenance programs. Finally the results of its application in Southern Peru smelter are presented.

We describe a new variational lower-bound on the minimum energy configuration of a planar binary Markov Random Field (MRF). Our method is based on adding auxiliary nodes to every face of a planar embedding of the graph in order to capture the effect of unary potentials. A ground state of the resulting approximation can be computed efficiently by reduction to minimum-weight perfect matching. We show that optimization of variational parameters achieves the same lower-bound as dual-decomposition into the set of all cycles of the original graph. We demonstrate that our variational optimization converges quickly and provides high-quality solutions to hard combinatorial problems 10-100x faster than competing algorithms that optimize the same bound.

While traditional research on text clustering has largely focused on grouping documents by topic, it is conceivable that a user may want to cluster documents along other dimensions, such as the author's mood, gender, age, or sentiment. Without knowing the user's intention, a clustering algorithm will only group documents along the most prominent dimension, which may not be the one the user desires. To address the problem of clustering documents along the user-desired dimension, previous work has focused on learning a similarity metric from data manually annotated with the user's intention or having a human construct a feature space in an interactive manner during the clustering process. With the goal of reducing reliance on human knowledge for fine-tuning the similarity function or selecting the relevant features required by these approaches, we propose a novel active clustering algorithm, which allows a user to easily select the dimension along which she wants to cluster the documents by inspecting only a small number of words. We demonstrate the viability of our algorithm on a variety of commonly-used sentiment datasets.