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COEVOLVE: A Joint Point Process Model for Information Diffusion and Network Co-evolution

Neural Information Processing Systems

Information diffusion in online social networks is affected by the underlying network topology, but it also has the power to change it. Online users are constantly creating new links when exposed to new information sources, and in turn these links are alternating the way information spreads. However, these two highly intertwined stochastic processes, information diffusion and network evolution, have been predominantly studied separately, ignoring their co-evolutionary dynamics.We propose a temporal point process model, COEVOLVE, for such joint dynamics, allowing the intensity of one process to be modulated by that of the other. This model allows us to efficiently simulate interleaved diffusion and network events, and generate traces obeying common diffusion and network patterns observed in real-world networks. Furthermore, we also develop a convex optimization framework to learn the parameters of the model from historical diffusion and network evolution traces. We experimented with both synthetic data and data gathered from Twitter, and show that our model provides a good fit to the data as well as more accurate predictions than alternatives.


Continuing Plan Quality Optimisation

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Finding high quality plans for large planning problems is hard. Although some current anytime planners are often able to improve plans quickly, they tend to reach a limit at which the plans produced are still very far from the best possible, but these planners fail to find any further improvement, even when given several hours of runtime. We present an approach to continuing plan quality optimisation at larger time scales, and its implementation in a system called BDPO2. Key to this approach is a decomposition into subproblems of improving parts of the current best plan. The decomposition is based on block deordering, a form of plan deordering which identifies hierarchical plan structure. BDPO2 can be seen as an application of the large neighbourhood search (LNS) local search strategy to planning, where the neighbourhood of a plan is defined by replacing one or more subplans with improved subplans. On-line learning is also used to adapt the strategy for selecting subplans and subplanners over the course of plan optimisation. Even starting from the best plans found by other means, BDPO2 is able to continue improving plan quality, often producing better plans than other anytime planners when all are given enough runtime. The best results, however, are achieved by a combination of different techniques working together.


Expressiveness of Two-Valued Semantics for Abstract Dialectical Frameworks

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

By expressiveness we mean the ability to encode a desired set of two-valued interpretations over a given propositional vocabulary A using only atoms from A. We also compare ADFs' expressiveness with that of (the two-valued semantics of) abstract argumentation frameworks, normal logic programs and propositional logic. While the computational complexity of the two-valued model existence problem for all these languages is (almost) the same, we show that the languages form a neat hierarchy with respect to their expressiveness. We then demonstrate that this hierarchy collapses once we allow to introduce a linear number of new vocabulary elements. We finally also analyse and compare the representational succinctness of ADFs (for two-valued model semantics), that is, their capability to represent two-valued interpretation sets in a space-efficient manner.


A latent shared-component generative model for real-time disease surveillance using Twitter data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Exploiting the large amount of available data for addressing relevant social problems has been one of the key challenges in data mining. Such efforts have been recently named "data science for social good" and attracted the attention of several researchers and institutions. We give a contribution in this objective in this paper considering a difficult public health problem, the timely monitoring of dengue epidemics in small geographical areas. We develop a generative simple yet effective model to connect the fluctuations of disease cases and disease-related Twitter posts. We considered a hidden Markov process driving both, the fluctuations in dengue reported cases and the tweets issued in each region. We add a stable but random source of tweets to represent the posts when no disease cases are recorded. The model is learned through a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces the posterior distribution of the relevant parameters. Using data from a significant number of large Brazilian towns, we demonstrate empirically that our model is able to predict well the next weeks of the disease counts using the tweets and disease cases jointly.


A DEEP analysis of the META-DES framework for dynamic selection of ensemble of classifiers

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Dynamic ensemble selection (DES) techniques work by estimating the level of competence of each classifier from a pool of classifiers. Only the most competent ones are selected to classify a given test sample. Hence, the key issue in DES is the criterion used to estimate the level of competence of the classifiers in predicting the label of a given test sample. In order to perform a more robust ensemble selection, we proposed the META-DES framework using meta-learning, where multiple criteria are encoded as meta-features and are passed down to a meta-classifier that is trained to estimate the competence level of a given classifier. In this technical report, we present a step-by-step analysis of each phase of the framework during training and test. We show how each set of meta-features is extracted as well as their impact on the estimation of the competence level of the base classifier. Moreover, an analysis of the impact of several factors in the system performance, such as the number of classifiers in the pool, the use of different linear base classifiers, as well as the size of the validation data. We show that using the dynamic selection of linear classifiers through the META-DES framework, we can solve complex non-linear classification problems where other combination techniques such as AdaBoost cannot.


Knowledge-Based Textual Inference via Parse-Tree Transformations

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Textual inference is an important component in many applications for understanding natural language. Classical approaches to textual inference rely on logical representations for meaning, which may be regarded as "external" to the natural language itself. However, practical applications usually adopt shallower lexical or lexical-syntactic representations, which correspond closely to language structure. In many cases, such approaches lack a principled meaning representation and inference framework. We describe an inference formalism that operates directly on language-based structures, particularly syntactic parse trees. New trees are generated by applying inference rules, which provide a unified representation for varying types of inferences. We use manual and automatic methods to generate these rules, which cover generic linguistic structures as well as specific lexical-based inferences. We also present a novel packed data-structure and a corresponding inference algorithm that allows efficient implementation of this formalism. We proved the correctness of the new algorithm and established its efficiency analytically and empirically. The utility of our approach was illustrated on two tasks: unsupervised relation extraction from a large corpus, and the Recognizing Textual Entailment (RTE) benchmarks.


Non-normal modalities in variants of Linear Logic

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This article presents modal versions of resource-conscious logics. We concentrate on extensions of variants of Linear Logic with one minimal non-normal modality. In earlier work, where we investigated agency in multi-agent systems, we have shown that the results scale up to logics with multiple non-minimal modalities. Here, we start with the language of propositional intuitionistic Linear Logic without the additive disjunction, to which we add a modality. We provide an interpretation of this language on a class of Kripke resource models extended with a neighbourhood function: modal Kripke resource models. We propose a Hilbert-style axiomatization and a Gentzen-style sequent calculus. We show that the proof theories are sound and complete with respect to the class of modal Kripke resource models. We show that the sequent calculus admits cut elimination and that proof-search is in PSPACE. We then show how to extend the results when non-commutative connectives are added to the language. Finally, we put the logical framework to use by instantiating it as logics of agency. In particular, we propose a logic to reason about the resource-sensitive use of artefacts and illustrate it with a variety of examples.


ITSAT: An Efficient SAT-Based Temporal Planner

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Planning as satisfiability is known as an efficient approach to deal with many types of planning problems. However, this approach has not been competitive with the state-space based methods in temporal planning. This paper describes ITSAT as an efficient SAT-based (satisfiability based) temporal planner capable of temporally expressive planning. The novelty of ITSAT lies in the way it handles temporal constraints of given problems without getting involved in the difficulties of introducing continuous variables into the corresponding satisfiability problems. We also show how, as in SAT-based classical planning, carefully devised preprocessing and encoding schemata can considerably improve the efficiency of SAT-based temporal planning. We present two preprocessing methods for mutex relation extraction and action compression. We also show that the separation of causal and temporal reasoning enables us to employ compact encodings that are based on the concept of parallel execution semantics. Although such encodings have been shown to be quite effective in classical planning, ITSAT is the first temporal planner utilizing this type of encoding. Our empirical results show that not only does ITSAT outperform the state-of-the-art temporally expressive planners, it is also competitive with the fast temporal planners that cannot handle required concurrency.


Multi-Objective Optimization for Self-Adjusting Weighted Gradient in Machine Learning Tasks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Much of the focus in machine learning research is placed in creating new architectures and optimization methods, but the overall loss function is seldom questioned. This paper interprets machine learning from a multi-objective optimization perspective, showing the limitations of the default linear combination of loss functions over a data set and introducing the hypervolume indicator as an alternative. It is shown that the gradient of the hypervolume is defined by a self-adjusting weighted mean of the individual loss gradients, making it similar to the gradient of a weighted mean loss but without requiring the weights to be defined a priori. This enables an inner boosting-like behavior, where the current model is used to automatically place higher weights on samples with higher losses but without requiring the use of multiple models. Results on a denoising autoencoder show that the new formulation is able to achieve better mean loss than the direct optimization of the mean loss, providing evidence to the conjecture that self-adjusting the weights creates a smoother loss surface.


Capturing a Musician's Groove: Generation of Realistic Accompaniments from Single Song Recordings

AAAI Conferences

This demonstration presents a concatenative synthesis engine for the generation of musical accompaniments, based on chord progressions. The system takes a player's song recording as input, and generates the accompaniment for any other song, based on the input content. We show that working on accompaniment requires a special care about temporal deviations at the border of the sliced chunks, because they make most of the rhythmic groove. We address it by discriminating accidental deviations against intentional ones, in order to correct the first while keeping the second. We will provide a full demonstration of the system, from the recording process to the generation, in various conditions, inviting the audience to participate.