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ABC-CDE: Towards Approximate Bayesian Computation with Complex High-Dimensional Data and Limited Simulations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is typically used when the likelihood is either unavailable or intractable but where data can be simulated under different parameter settings using a forward model. Despite the recent interest in ABC, high-dimensional data and costly simulations still remain a bottleneck. There is also no consensus as to how to best assess the performance of such methods without knowing the true posterior. We show how a nonparametric conditional density estimation (CDE) framework, which we refer to as ABC-CDE, help address three key challenges in ABC: (i) how to efficiently estimate the posterior distribution with limited simulations and different types of data, (ii) how to tune and compare the performance of ABC and related methods in estimating the posterior itself, rather than just certain properties of the density, and (iii) how to efficiently choose among a large set of summary statistics based on a CDE surrogate loss. We provide theoretical and empirical evidence that justify ABC-CDE procedures that directly estimate and assess the posterior based on an initial ABC sample, and we describe settings where standard ABC and regression-based approaches are inadequate.



Generating Rescheduling Knowledge using Reinforcement Learning in a Cognitive Architecture

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In order to reach higher degrees of flexibility, adaptability and autonomy in manufacturing systems, it is essential to develop new rescheduling methodologies which resort to cognitive capabilities, similar to those found in human beings. Artificial cognition is important for designing planning and control systems that generate and represent knowledge about heuristics for repair-based scheduling. Rescheduling knowledge in the form of decision rules is used to deal with unforeseen events and disturbances reactively in real time, and take advantage of the ability to act interactively with the user to counteract the effects of disruptions. In this work, to achieve the aforementioned goals, a novel approach to generate rescheduling knowledge in the form of dynamic first-order logical rules is proposed. The proposed approach is based on the integration of reinforcement learning with artificial cognitive capabilities involving perception and reasoning/learning skills embedded in the Soar cognitive architecture. An industrial example is discussed showing that the approach enables the scheduling system to assess its operational range in an autonomic way, and to acquire experience through intensive simulation while performing repair tasks.


Towards Autonomous Reinforcement Learning: Automatic Setting of Hyper-parameters using Bayesian Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the increase of machine learning usage by industries and scientific communities in a variety of tasks such as text mining, image recognition and self-driving cars, automatic setting of hyper-parameter in learning algorithms is a key factor for achieving satisfactory performance regardless of user expertise in the inner workings of the techniques and methodologies. In particular, for a reinforcement learning algorithm, the efficiency of an agent learning a control policy in an uncertain environment is heavily dependent on the hyper-parameters used to balance exploration with exploitation. In this work, an autonomous learning framework that integrates Bayesian optimization with Gaussian process regression to optimize the hyper-parameters of a reinforcement learning algorithm, is proposed. Also, a bandits-based approach to achieve a balance between computational costs and decreasing uncertainty about the Q-values, is presented. A gridworld example is used to highlight how hyper-parameter configurations of a learning algorithm (SARSA) are iteratively improved based on two performance functions.


Video game's virtual gold is worth more than Venezuela's currency

USATODAY - Tech Top Stories

The virtual gold in the game World of Warcraft is now worth around seven times more than Venezuela's currency, the bolivar. A link has been sent to your friend's email address. A link has been posted to your Facebook feed. The virtual gold in the game World of Warcraft is now worth around seven times more than Venezuela's currency, the bolivar.


Region-Based Classification of PolSAR Data Using Radial Basis Kernel Functions With Stochastic Distances

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Region-based classification of PolSAR data can be effectively performed by seeking for the assignment that minimizes a distance between prototypes and segments. Silva et al (2013) used stochastic distances between complex multivariate Wishart models which, differently from other measures, are computationally tractable. In this work we assess the robustness of such approach with respect to errors in the training stage, and propose an extension that alleviates such problems. We introduce robustness in the process by incorporating a combination of radial basis kernel functions and stochastic distances with Support Vector Machines (SVM). We consider several stochastic distances between Wishart: Bhatacharyya, Kullback-Leibler, Chi-Square, R\'{e}nyi, and Hellinger. We perform two case studies with PolSAR images, both simulated and from actual sensors, and different classification scenarios to compare the performance of Minimum Distance and SVM classification frameworks. With this, we model the situation of imperfect training samples. We show that SVM with the proposed kernel functions achieves better performance with respect to Minimum Distance, at the expense of more computational resources and the need of parameter tuning. Code and data are provided for reproducibility.


Global Artificial Intelligence Market By Region, Vendors, SWOT And PESTEL Analysis Forecast to 2026 - Expert Consulting

#artificialintelligence

This latest research report that completely centers "Global Artificial Intelligence Market" is an intensive analysis of propulsive forces, propulsive risks, business opportunities, Artificial Intelligence threats and challenges includes in Artificial Intelligence market. It provides conclusive flecks of the Artificial Intelligence market such as major prominent players, market size over the forecast period of 2017-2026, market share, segmentation study, present Artificial Intelligence market trends, progress and major geographical sectors involved in Artificial Intelligence market. For cosmopolitan understanding, the Artificial Intelligence market is split into segments and sub-segments. Artificial Intelligence report also provides high-advance data and certain information about manufacturing plants used in the survey of Artificial Intelligence industry. All the information points and assembles data about Artificial Intelligence market is pictured statistically in the form of bar graphs, pie diagrams, tables and product figure to give a generous understanding of the users.


Acquisition and use of knowledge over a restricted domain by intelligent agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This short paper provides a description of an architecture to acquisition and use of knowledge by intelligent agents over a restricted domain of the Internet Infrastructure. The proposed architecture is added to an intelligent agent deployment model over a very useful server for Internet Autonomous System administrators. Such servers, which are heavily dependent on arbitrary and eventual updates of human beings, become unreliable. This is a position paper that proposes three research questions that are still in progress.


Modeling Dengue Vector Population Using Remotely Sensed Data and Machine Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Mosquitoes are vectors of many human diseases. In particular, Aedes \ae gypti (Linnaeus) is the main vector for Chikungunya, Dengue, and Zika viruses in Latin America and it represents a global threat. Public health policies that aim at combating this vector require dependable and timely information, which is usually expensive to obtain with field campaigns. For this reason, several efforts have been done to use remote sensing due to its reduced cost. The present work includes the temporal modeling of the oviposition activity (measured weekly on 50 ovitraps in a north Argentinean city) of Aedes \ae gypti (Linnaeus), based on time series of data extracted from operational earth observation satellite images. We use are NDVI, NDWI, LST night, LST day and TRMM-GPM rain from 2012 to 2016 as predictive variables. In contrast to previous works which use linear models, we employ Machine Learning techniques using completely accessible open source toolkits. These models have the advantages of being non-parametric and capable of describing nonlinear relationships between variables. Specifically, in addition to two linear approaches, we assess a Support Vector Machine, an Artificial Neural Networks, a K-nearest neighbors and a Decision Tree Regressor. Considerations are made on parameter tuning and the validation and training approach. The results are compared to linear models used in previous works with similar data sets for generating temporal predictive models. These new tools perform better than linear approaches, in particular Nearest Neighbor Regression (KNNR) performs the best. These results provide better alternatives to be implemented operatively on the Argentine geospatial Risk system that is running since 2012.


Artificial Intelligence to drive South America's Growth Accenture

#artificialintelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is making headlines worldwide. It is heralded both as an economic salvation and as a precursor to social disintegration. But there is a lack of clear assessments of the real value that artificial intelligence can create, as well as the challenges that must be addressed to ensure society benefits from this inevitable disruptive impact, rather than suffers from it. That's what we're trying to achieve for South America. The region urgently needs a sustainable solution to its low levels of productivity and economic growth.