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In this episode of the McKinsey on AI podcast miniseries, McKinsey's David DeLallo speaks with McKinsey Global Institute partner Michael Chui and associate partner Bryce Hall about the latest trends in business adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). They discuss where the technology is being used most across industries, companies, and business functions; the keys to getting impact from AI investments; and what lies ahead. There's no shortage of predictions about how it could fundamentally change the way we live and work. Over the past few years, companies around the world have been figuring out exactly how AI technologies can improve their performance in a number of areas across their business. But is AI actually delivering significant results? Moreover, what can we expect to see as we move into a new decade of AI use and development? To answer some of these questions today, I'm joined by Michael Chui, a McKinsey partner with the McKinsey Global Institute, who is based in our San Francisco office, and associate partner Bryce Hall from our Washington, DC, office.

Accurately forecasting county level COVID-19 confirmed cases is crucial to optimizing medical resources. Forecasting emerging outbreaks pose a particular challenge because many existing forecasting techniques learn from historical seasons trends. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) with LSTM-based cells are a logical choice of model due to their ability to learn temporal dynamics. In this paper, we adapt the state and county level influenza model, TDEFSI-LONLY, proposed in Wang et a. [l2020] to national and county level COVID-19 data. We show that this model poorly forecasts the current pandemic. We analyze the two week ahead forecasting capabilities of the TDEFSI-LONLY model with combinations of regularization techniques. Effective training of the TDEFSI-LONLY model requires data augmentation, to overcome this challenge we utilize an SEIR model and present an inter-county mixing extension to this model to simulate sufficient training data. Further, we propose an alternate forecast model, {\it County Level Epidemiological Inference Recurrent Network} (\alg{}) that trains an LSTM backbone on national confirmed cases to learn a low dimensional time pattern and utilizes a time distributed dense layer to learn individual county confirmed case changes each day for a two weeks forecast. We show that the best, worst, and median state forecasts made using CLEIR-Net model are respectively New York, South Carolina, and Montana.

We investigate the generalisation performance of Distributed Gradient Descent with Implicit Regularisation and Random Features in the homogenous setting where a network of agents are given data sampled independently from the same unknown distribution. Along with reducing the memory footprint, Random Features are particularly convenient in this setting as they provide a common parameterisation across agents that allows to overcome previous difficulties in implementing Decentralised Kernel Regression. Under standard source and capacity assumptions, we establish high probability bounds on the predictive performance for each agent as a function of the step size, number of iterations, inverse spectral gap of the communication matrix and number of Random Features. By tuning these parameters, we obtain statistical rates that are minimax optimal with respect to the total number of samples in the network. The algorithm provides a linear improvement over single machine Gradient Descent in memory cost and, when agents hold enough data with respect to the network size and inverse spectral gap, a linear speed-up in computational runtime for any network topology. We present simulations that show how the number of Random Features, iterations and samples impact predictive performance.

Streaming data are increasingly present in real-world applications such as sensor measurements, satellite data feed, stock market, and financial data. The main characteristics of these applications are the online arrival of data observations at high speed and the susceptibility to changes in the data distributions due to the dynamic nature of real environments. The data stream mining community still faces some primary challenges and difficulties related to the comparison and evaluation of new proposals, mainly due to the lack of publicly available non-stationary real-world datasets. The comparison of stream algorithms proposed in the literature is not an easy task, as authors do not always follow the same recommendations, experimental evaluation procedures, datasets, and assumptions. In this paper, we mitigate problems related to the choice of datasets in the experimental evaluation of stream classifiers and drift detectors. To that end, we propose a new public data repository for benchmarking stream algorithms with real-world data. This repository contains the most popular datasets from literature and new datasets related to a highly relevant public health problem that involves the recognition of disease vector insects using optical sensors. The main advantage of these new datasets is the prior knowledge of their characteristics and patterns of changes to evaluate new adaptive algorithm proposals adequately. We also present an in-depth discussion about the characteristics, reasons, and issues that lead to different types of changes in data distribution, as well as a critical review of common problems concerning the current benchmark datasets available in the literature.

Language representations are known to carry stereotypical biases and, as a result, lead to biased predictions in downstream tasks. While existing methods are effective at mitigating biases by linear projection, such methods are too aggressive: they not only remove bias, but also erase valuable information from word embeddings. We develop new measures for evaluating specific information retention that demonstrate the tradeoff between bias removal and information retention. To address this challenge, we propose OSCaR (Orthogonal Subspace Correction and Rectification), a bias-mitigating method that focuses on disentangling biased associations between concepts instead of removing concepts wholesale. Our experiments on gender biases show that OSCaR is a well-balanced approach that ensures that semantic information is retained in the embeddings and bias is also effectively mitigated.

ML-based predictive systems are increasingly used to support decisions with a critical impact on individuals' lives such as college admission, job hiring, child custody, criminal risk assessment, etc. As a result, fairness emerged as an important requirement to guarantee that predictive systems do not discriminate against specific individuals or entire sub-populations, in particular, minorities. Given the inherent subjectivity of viewing the concept of fairness, several notions of fairness have been introduced in the literature. This paper is a survey of fairness notions that, unlike other surveys in the literature, addresses the question of "which notion of fairness is most suited to a given real-world scenario and why?". Our attempt to answer this question consists in (1) identifying the set of fairness-related characteristics of the real-world scenario at hand, (2) analyzing the behavior of each fairness notion, and then (3) fitting these two elements to recommend the most suitable fairness notion in every specific setup. The results are summarized in a decision diagram that can be used by practitioners and policy makers to navigate the relatively large catalogue of fairness notions.

This paper analyses the application of artificial intelligence techniques to various areas of archaeology and more specifically: a) The use of software tools as a creative stimulus for the organization of exhibitions; the use of humanoid robots and holographic displays as guides that interact and involve museum visitors; b) The analysis of methods for the classification of fragments found in archaeological excavations and for the reconstruction of ceramics, with the recomposition of the parts of text missing from historical documents and epigraphs; c) The cataloguing and study of human remains to understand the social and historical context of belonging with the demonstration of the effectiveness of the AI techniques used; d) The detection of particularly difficult terrestrial archaeological sites with the analysis of the architectures of the Artificial Neural Networks most suitable for solving the problems presented by the site; the design of a study for the exploration of marine archaeological sites, located at depths that cannot be reached by man, through the construction of a freely explorable 3D version.

Detection of wheat heads is an important task allowing to estimate pertinent traits including head population density and head characteristics such as sanitary state, size, maturity stage and the presence of awns. Several studies developed methods for wheat head detection from high-resolution RGB imagery. They are based on computer vision and machine learning and are generally calibrated and validated on limited datasets. However, variability in observational conditions, genotypic differences, development stages, head orientation represents a challenge in computer vision. Further, possible blurring due to motion or wind and overlap between heads for dense populations make this task even more complex. Through a joint international collaborative effort, we have built a large, diverse and well-labelled dataset, the Global Wheat Head detection (GWHD) dataset. It contains 4,700 high-resolution RGB images and 190,000 labelled wheat heads collected from several countries around the world at different growth stages with a wide range of genotypes. Guidelines for image acquisition, associating minimum metadata to respect FAIR principles and consistent head labelling methods are proposed when developing new head detection datasets. The GWHD is publicly available at http://www.global-wheat.com/ and aimed at developing and benchmarking methods for wheat head detection.

As real-world AI deployments increase, IBM says the contributions can help ensure they're fair, secure and trustworthy. IBM on Monday announced it's donating a series of open-source toolkits designed to help build trusted AI to a Linux Foundation project, the LF AI Foundation. As real-world AI deployments increase, IBM says the contributions can help ensure they're fair, secure and trustworthy. "Donation of these projects to LFAI will further the mission of creating responsible AI-powered technologies and enable the larger community to come forward and co-create these tools under the governance of Linux Foundation," IBM said in a blog post, penned by Todd Moore, Sriram Raghavan and Aleksandra Mojsilovic. Specifically, IBM is contributing the AI Fairness 360 Toolkit, the Adversarial Robustness 360 Toolbox and the AI Explainability 360 Toolkit.