Random forest (RF) is one of the most popular methods for estimating regression functions. The local nature of the RF algorithm, based on intra-node means and variances, is ideal when errors are i.i.d. For dependent error processes like time series and spatial settings where data in all the nodes will be correlated, operating locally ignores this dependence. Also, RF will involve resampling of correlated data, violating the principles of bootstrap. Theoretically, consistency of RF has been established for i.i.d. errors, but little is known about the case of dependent errors. We propose RF-GLS, a novel extension of RF for dependent error processes in the same way Generalized Least Squares (GLS) fundamentally extends Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) for linear models under dependence. The key to this extension is the equivalent representation of the local decision-making in a regression tree as a global OLS optimization which is then replaced with a GLS loss to create a GLS-style regression tree. This also synergistically addresses the resampling issue, as the use of GLS loss amounts to resampling uncorrelated contrasts (pre-whitened data) instead of the correlated data. For spatial settings, RF-GLS can be used in conjunction with Gaussian Process correlated errors to generate kriging predictions at new locations. RF becomes a special case of RF-GLS with an identity working covariance matrix. We establish consistency of RF-GLS under beta- (absolutely regular) mixing error processes and show that this general result subsumes important cases like autoregressive time series and spatial Matern Gaussian Processes. As a byproduct, we also establish consistency of RF for beta-mixing processes, which to our knowledge, is the first such result for RF under dependence. We empirically demonstrate the improvement achieved by RF-GLS over RF for both estimation and prediction under dependence.

Robotic systems are more present in our society everyday. In human-robot environments, it is crucial that end-users may correctly understand their robotic team-partners, in order to collaboratively complete a task. To increase action understanding, users demand more explainability about the decisions by the robot in particular situations. Recently, explainable robotic systems have emerged as an alternative focused not only on completing a task satisfactorily, but also in justifying, in a human-like manner, the reasons that lead to making a decision. In reinforcement learning scenarios, a great effort has been focused on providing explanations using data-driven approaches, particularly from the visual input modality in deep learning-based systems. In this work, we focus on the decision-making process of a reinforcement learning agent performing a simple navigation task in a robotic scenario. As a way to explain the goal-driven robot's actions, we use the probability of success computed by three different proposed approaches: memory-based, learning-based, and introspection-based. The difference between these approaches is the amount of memory required to compute or estimate the probability of success as well as the kind of reinforcement learning representation where they could be used. In this regard, we use the memory-based approach as a baseline since it is obtained directly from the agent's observations. When comparing the learning-based and the introspection-based approaches to this baseline, both are found to be suitable alternatives to compute the probability of success, obtaining high levels of similarity when compared using both the Pearson's correlation and the mean squared error.

Experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) development predict that advances in the development of intelligent systems and agents will reshape vital areas in our society. Nevertheless, if such an advance is not made prudently and critically, reflexively, it can result in negative outcomes for humanity. For this reason, several researchers in the area have developed a robust, beneficial, and safe concept of AI for the preservation of humanity and the environment. Currently, several of the open problems in the field of AI research arise from the difficulty of avoiding unwanted behaviors of intelligent agents and systems, and at the same time specifying what we really want such systems to do, especially when we look for the possibility of intelligent agents acting in several domains over the long term. It is of utmost importance that artificial intelligent agents have their values aligned with human values, given the fact that we cannot expect an AI to develop human moral values simply because of its intelligence, as discussed in the Orthogonality Thesis. Perhaps this difficulty comes from the way we are addressing the problem of expressing objectives, values, and ends, using representational cognitive methods. A solution to this problem would be the dynamic approach proposed by Dreyfus, whose phenomenological philosophy shows that the human experience of being-in-the-world in several aspects is not well represented by the symbolic or connectionist cognitive method, especially in regards to the question of learning values. A possible approach to this problem would be to use theoretical models such as SED (situated embodied dynamics) to address the values learning problem in AI.

SARS-CoV2, which causes coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is continuing to spread globally and has become a pandemic. People have lost their lives due to the virus and the lack of counter measures in place. Given the increasing caseload and uncertainty of spread, there is an urgent need to develop machine learning techniques to predict the spread of COVID-19. Prediction of the spread can allow counter measures and actions to be implemented to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. In this paper, we propose a deep learning technique, called Deep Sequential Prediction Model (DSPM) and machine learning based Non-parametric Regression Model (NRM) to predict the spread of COVID-19. Our proposed models were trained and tested on novel coronavirus 2019 dataset, which contains 19.53 Million confirmed cases of COVID-19. Our proposed models were evaluated by using Mean Absolute Error and compared with baseline method. Our experimental results, both quantitative and qualitative, demonstrate the superior prediction performance of the proposed models.

This paper discusses the prediction of hierarchical time series, where each upper-level time series is calculated by summing appropriate lower-level time series. Forecasts for such hierarchical time series should be coherent, meaning that the forecast for an upper-level time series equals the sum of forecasts for corresponding lower-level time series. Previous methods for making coherent forecasts consist of two phases: first computing base (incoherent) forecasts and then reconciling those forecasts based on their inherent hierarchical structure. With the aim of improving time series predictions, we propose a structured regularization method for completing both phases simultaneously. The proposed method is based on a prediction model for bottom-level time series and uses a structured regularization term to incorporate upper-level forecasts into the prediction model. We also develop a backpropagation algorithm specialized for application of our method to artificial neural networks for time series prediction. Experimental results using synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method in terms of prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.

With histograms as its foundation, we develop Categorical Exploratory Data Analysis (CEDA) under the extreme-$K$ sample problem, and illustrate its universal applicability through four 1D categorical datasets. Given a sizable $K$, CEDA's ultimate goal amounts to discover by data's information content via carrying out two data-driven computational tasks: 1) establish a tree geometry upon $K$ populations as a platform for discovering a wide spectrum of patterns among populations; 2) evaluate each geometric pattern's reliability. In CEDA developments, each population gives rise to a row vector of categories proportions. Upon the data matrix's row-axis, we discuss the pros and cons of Euclidean distance against its weighted version for building a binary clustering tree geometry. The criterion of choice rests on degrees of uniformness in column-blocks framed by this binary clustering tree. Each tree-leaf (population) is then encoded with a binary code sequence, so is tree-based pattern. For evaluating reliability, we adopt row-wise multinomial randomness to generate an ensemble of matrix mimicries, so an ensemble of mimicked binary trees. Reliability of any observed pattern is its recurrence rate within the tree ensemble. A high reliability value means a deterministic pattern. Our four applications of CEDA illuminate four significant aspects of extreme-$K$ sample problems.

Credit card fraud is an ongoing problem for almost all industries in the world, and it raises millions of dollars to the global economy each year. Therefore, there is a number of research either completed or proceeding in order to detect these kinds of frauds in the industry. These researches generally use rule-based or novel artificial intelligence approaches to find eligible solutions. The ultimate goal of this paper is to summarize state-of-the-art approaches to fraud detection using artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques. While summarizing, we will categorize the common problems such as imbalanced dataset, real time working scenarios, and feature engineering challenges that almost all research works encounter, and identify general approaches to solve them. The imbalanced dataset problem occurs because the number of legitimate transactions is much higher than the fraudulent ones whereas applying the right feature engineering is substantial as the features obtained from the industries are limited, and applying feature engineering methods and reforming the dataset is crucial. Also, adapting the detection system to real time scenarios is a challenge since the number of credit card transactions in a limited time period is very high. In addition, we will discuss how evaluation metrics and machine learning methods differentiate among each research. NTRODUCTION The number of cashless transactions is at its peak point since the beginning of the digital era and it is most likely to increase in the future.

The most reliable predictor of a relationship's success is partners' belief that the other person is fully committed, a Western University-led international research team has found. Other important factors in a successful relationship include feeling close to, appreciated by and sexually satisfied with your partner, says the study – the first-ever systematic attempt at using machine-learning algorithms to predict people's relationship satisfaction. "Satisfaction with romantic relationships has important implications for health, wellbeing and work productivity," Western Psychology professor Samantha Joel said. "But research on predictors of relationship quality is often limited in scope and scale, and carried out separately in individual laboratories." The massive machine-learning study, conducted by Joel, Paul Eastwick from University of California, Davis, and 84 other scholars from around the world, delved into more than 11,000 couples and 43 distinct self-reported datasets on romantic couples.

Communication has become increasingly dynamic with the popularization of social networks and applications that allow people to express themselves and communicate instantly. In this scenario, distributed representation models have their quality impacted by new words that appear frequently or that are derived from spelling errors. These words that are unknown by the models, known as out-of-vocabulary (OOV) words, need to be properly handled to not degrade the quality of the natural language processing (NLP) applications, which depend on the appropriate vector representation of the texts. To better understand this problem and finding the best techniques to handle OOV words, in this study, we present a comprehensive performance evaluation of deep learning models for representing OOV words. We performed an intrinsic evaluation using a benchmark dataset and an extrinsic evaluation using different NLP tasks: text categorization, named entity recognition, and part-of-speech tagging. Although the results indicated that the best technique for handling OOV words is different for each task, Comick, a deep learning method that infers the embedding based on the context and the morphological structure of the OOV word, obtained promising results.

Transformers-based models, such as BERT, have been one of the most successful deep learning models for NLP. Unfortunately, one of their core limitations is the quadratic dependency (mainly in terms of memory) on the sequence length due to their full attention mechanism. To remedy this, we propose, BigBird, a sparse attention mechanism that reduces this quadratic dependency to linear. We show that BigBird is a universal approximator of sequence functions and is Turing complete, thereby preserving these properties of the quadratic, full attention model. Along the way, our theoretical analysis reveals some of the benefits of having $O(1)$ global tokens (such as CLS), that attend to the entire sequence as part of the sparse attention mechanism. The proposed sparse attention can handle sequences of length up to 8x of what was previously possible using similar hardware. As a consequence of the capability to handle longer context, BigBird drastically improves performance on various NLP tasks such as question answering and summarization. We also propose novel applications to genomics data.