We study the impact of fiscal revenue shocks on local fiscal policy. We focus on the very volatile revenues from the immovable property gains tax in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland, and analyze fiscal behavior following large and rare positive and negative revenue shocks. We apply causal machine learning strategies and implement the post-double-selection LASSO estimator to identify the causal effect of revenue shocks on public finances. We show that local policymakers overall predominantly smooth fiscal shocks. However, we also find some patterns consistent with fiscal conservatism, where positive shocks are smoothed, while negative ones are mitigated by spending cuts.

Hierarchical topic modeling is a potentially powerful instrument for determining the topical structure of text collections that allows constructing a topical hierarchy representing levels of topical abstraction. However, tuning of parameters of hierarchical models, including the number of topics on each hierarchical level, remains a challenging task and an open issue. In this paper, we propose a Renyi entropy-based approach for a partial solution to the above problem. First, we propose a Renyi entropy-based metric of quality for hierarchical models. Second, we propose a practical concept of hierarchical topic model tuning tested on datasets with human mark-up. In the numerical experiments, we consider three different hierarchical models, namely, hierarchical latent Dirichlet allocation (hLDA) model, hierarchical Pachinko allocation model (hPAM), and hierarchical additive regularization of topic models (hARTM). We demonstrate that hLDA model possesses a significant level of instability and, moreover, the derived numbers of topics are far away from the true numbers for labeled datasets. For hPAM model, the Renyi entropy approach allows us to determine only one level of the data structure. For hARTM model, the proposed approach allows us to estimate the number of topics for two hierarchical levels.

Images showing the internal structure of the Christ the Redeemer statue in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, have been revealed for the first time thanks to a 3D scan. Geospatial mapping specialist GeoSLAM produced the never-before-seen digital images of the inside of the famous statue ahead of its 90th birthday on October 12. Emblematic of the city of Rio de Janeiro and the nation of Brazil, the concrete clad statue stands 98 feet tall and spans a mammoth 92 feet wide. The digital re-creation of the iconic statue involved more than 180 million points of data - taken from a drone-mounted laser scanner and someone walking up and down the staircases inside the statue using the same scanner. The new digital images will allow people to virtually explore this world-famous monument in ways never before been possible - inside and out. In 2019, the statue was visited over two million times, with people from all over the globe travelling to admire the monument, which soars 2,320 feet above the city.

In this paper we survey the most recent advances in supervised machine learning and high-dimensional models for time series forecasting. We consider both linear and nonlinear alternatives. Among the linear methods we pay special attention to penalized regressions and ensemble of models. The nonlinear methods considered in the paper include shallow and deep neural networks, in their feed-forward and recurrent versions, and tree-based methods, such as random forests and boosted trees. We also consider ensemble and hybrid models by combining ingredients from different alternatives. Tests for superior predictive ability are briefly reviewed. Finally, we discuss application of machine learning in economics and finance and provide an illustration with high-frequency financial data.

Brain Computer Interface technologies are popular methods of communication between the human brain and external devices. One of the most popular approaches to BCI is Motor Imagery. In BCI applications, the ElectroEncephaloGraphy is a very popular measurement for brain dynamics because of its non-invasive nature. Although there is a high interest in the BCI topic, the performance of existing systems is still far from ideal, due to the difficulty of performing pattern recognition tasks in EEG signals. BCI systems are composed of a wide range of components that perform signal pre-processing, feature extraction and decision making. In this paper, we define a BCI Framework, named Enhanced Fusion Framework, where we propose three different ideas to improve the existing MI-based BCI frameworks. Firstly, we include aan additional pre-processing step of the signal: a differentiation of the EEG signal that makes it time-invariant. Secondly, we add an additional frequency band as feature for the system and we show its effect on the performance of the system. Finally, we make a profound study of how to make the final decision in the system. We propose the usage of both up to six types of different classifiers and a wide range of aggregation functions (including classical aggregations, Choquet and Sugeno integrals and their extensions and overlap functions) to fuse the information given by the considered classifiers. We have tested this new system on a dataset of 20 volunteers performing motor imagery-based brain-computer interface experiments. On this dataset, the new system achieved a 88.80% of accuracy. We also propose an optimized version of our system that is able to obtain up to 90,76%. Furthermore, we find that the pair Choquet/Sugeno integrals and overlap functions are the ones providing the best results.

The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) bring human-AI interaction to the forefront of HCI research. This paper argues that games are an ideal domain for studying and experimenting with how humans interact with AI. Through a systematic survey of neural network games (n = 38), we identified the dominant interaction metaphors and AI interaction patterns in these games. In addition, we applied existing human-AI interaction guidelines to further shed light on player-AI interaction in the context of AI-infused systems. Our core finding is that AI as play can expand current notions of human-AI interaction, which are predominantly productivity-based. In particular, our work suggests that game and UX designers should consider flow to structure the learning curve of human-AI interaction, incorporate discovery-based learning to play around with the AI and observe the consequences, and offer users an invitation to play to explore new forms of human-AI interaction.

Finding an expert plays a crucial role in driving successful collaborations and speeding up high-quality research development and innovations. However, the rapid growth of scientific publications and digital expertise data makes identifying the right experts a challenging problem. Existing approaches for finding experts given a topic can be categorised into information retrieval techniques based on vector space models, document language models, and graph-based models. In this paper, we propose $\textit{ExpFinder}$, a new ensemble model for expert finding, that integrates a novel $N$-gram vector space model, denoted as $n$VSM, and a graph-based model, denoted as $\textit{$\mu$CO-HITS}$, that is a proposed variation of the CO-HITS algorithm. The key of $n$VSM is to exploit recent inverse document frequency weighting method for $N$-gram words and $\textit{ExpFinder}$ incorporates $n$VSM into $\textit{$\mu$CO-HITS}$ to achieve expert finding. We comprehensively evaluate $\textit{ExpFinder}$ on four different datasets from the academic domains in comparison with six different expert finding models. The evaluation results show that $\textit{ExpFinder}$ is a highly effective model for expert finding, substantially outperforming all the compared models in 19% to 160.2%.

With the advent of deep learning, the number of works proposing new methods or improving existent ones has grown exponentially in the last years. In this scenario, "very deep" models were emerging, once they were expected to extract more intrinsic and abstract features while supporting a better performance. However, such models suffer from the gradient vanishing problem, i.e., backpropagation values become too close to zero in their shallower layers, ultimately causing learning to stagnate. Such an issue was overcome in the context of convolution neural networks by creating "shortcut connections" between layers, in a so-called deep residual learning framework. Nonetheless, a very popular deep learning technique called Deep Belief Network still suffers from gradient vanishing when dealing with discriminative tasks. Therefore, this paper proposes the Residual Deep Belief Network, which considers the information reinforcement layer-by-layer to improve the feature extraction and knowledge retaining, that support better discriminative performance. Experiments conducted over three public datasets demonstrate its robustness concerning the task of binary image classification.

Deep learning architectures have been widely fostered throughout the last years, being used in a wide range of applications, such as object recognition, image reconstruction, and signal processing. Nevertheless, such models suffer from a common problem known as overfitting, which limits the network from predicting unseen data effectively. Regularization approaches arise in an attempt to address such a shortcoming. Among them, one can refer to the well-known Dropout, which tackles the problem by randomly shutting down a set of neurons and their connections according to a certain probability. Therefore, this approach does not consider any additional knowledge to decide which units should be disconnected. In this paper, we propose an energy-based Dropout (E-Dropout) that makes conscious decisions whether a neuron should be dropped or not. Specifically, we design this regularization method by correlating neurons and the model's energy as an importance level for further applying it to energy-based models, such as Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs). The experimental results over several benchmark datasets revealed the proposed approach's suitability compared to the traditional Dropout and the standard RBMs.

When a team of international scientists set out to count every tree in a large swathe of west Africa using AI, satellite images and one of the world's most powerful supercomputers, their expectations were modest. Previously, the area had registered as having little or no tree cover. The biggest surprise, says Martin Brandt, assistant professor of geography at the University of Copenhagen, is that the part of the Sahara that the study covered, roughly 10%, "where no one would expect to find many trees", actually had "quite a few hundred million". Trees are crucial to our long-term survival, as they absorb and store the carbon dioxide emissions that cause global heating. But we still do not know how many there are.