We use European football performance data to select teams to form the proposed European football Super League, using only unsupervised techniques. We first used random forest regression to select important variables predicting goal difference, which we used to calculate the Euclidian distances between teams. Creating a Laplacian eigenmap, we bisected the Fielder vector to identify the five major European football leagues' natural clusters. Our results showed how an unsupervised approach could successfully identify four clusters based on five basic performance metrics: shots, shots on target, shots conceded, possession, and pass success. The top two clusters identify those teams who dominate their respective leagues and are the best candidates to create the most competitive elite super league. Keywords: OR in sports; Selection; Unsupervised; Spectral clustering; Laplacian Eigenmap; Machine Learning 1. Introduction Operational research (OR) has a long history of using sport to explore operational insights and methodologies (see Wright, 2009 for a review).

The burden of depression and anxiety in the world is rising. Identification of individuals at increased risk of developing these conditions would help to target them for prevention and ultimately reduce the healthcare burden. We developed a 10-year predictive algorithm for depression and anxiety using the full cohort of over 400,000 UK Biobank (UKB) participants without pre-existing depression or anxiety using digitally obtainable information. From the initial 204 variables selected from UKB, processed into > 520 features, iterative backward elimination using Cox proportional hazards model was performed to select predictors which account for the majority of its predictive capability. Baseline and reduced models were then trained for depression and anxiety using both Cox and DeepSurv, a deep neural network approach to survival analysis. The baseline Cox model achieved concordance of 0.813 and 0.778 on the validation dataset for depression and anxiety, respectively. For the DeepSurv model, respective concordance indices were 0.805 and 0.774. After feature selection, the depression model contained 43 predictors and the concordance index was 0.801 for both Cox and DeepSurv. The reduced anxiety model, with 27 predictors, achieved concordance of 0.770 in both models. The final models showed good discrimination and calibration in the test datasets.We developed predictive risk scores with high discrimination for depression and anxiety using the UKB cohort, incorporating predictors which are easily obtainable via smartphone. If deployed in a digital solution, it would allow individuals to track their risk, as well as provide some pointers to how to decrease it through lifestyle changes.

As a result of the greater availability of big data, as well as the decreasing costs and increasing power of modern computing, the use of artificial neural networks for financial time series forecasting is once again a major topic of discussion and research in the financial world. Despite this academic focus, there are still contrasting opinions and bodies of literature on which artificial neural networks perform the best and whether or not they outperform the forecasting capabilities of conventional time series models. This paper uses a long-short term memory network to perform financial time series forecasting on the return data of the JSE Top 40 index. Furthermore, the forecasting performance of the long-short term memory network is compared to the forecasting performance of a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model. This paper evaluates the varying approaches presented in the existing literature and ultimately, compares the results to that existing literature. The paper concludes that the long short-term memory network outperforms the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model when forecasting intraday directional movements as well as when forecasting the index close price.

This paper describes MagicPai's system for SemEval 2021 Task 7, HaHackathon: Detecting and Rating Humor and Offense. This task aims to detect whether the text is humorous and how humorous it is. There are four subtasks in the competition. In this paper, we mainly present our solution, a multi-task learning model based on adversarial examples, for task 1a and 1b. More specifically, we first vectorize the cleaned dataset and add the perturbation to obtain more robust embedding representations. We then correct the loss via the confidence level. Finally, we perform interactive joint learning on multiple tasks to capture the relationship between whether the text is humorous and how humorous it is. The final result shows the effectiveness of our system.

Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) are general-purpose optimization algorithms, inspired by natural evolution. Recent theoretical studies have shown that EAs can achieve good approximation guarantees for solving the problem classes of submodular optimization, which have a wide range of applications, such as maximum coverage, sparse regression, influence maximization, document summarization and sensor placement, just to name a few. Though they have provided some theoretical explanation for the general-purpose nature of EAs, the considered submodular objective functions are defined only over sets or multisets. To complement this line of research, this paper studies the problem class of maximizing monotone submodular functions over sequences, where the objective function depends on the order of items. We prove that for each kind of previously studied monotone submodular objective functions over sequences, i.e., prefix monotone submodular functions, weakly monotone and strongly submodular functions, and DAG monotone submodular functions, a simple multi-objective EA, i.e., GSEMO, can always reach or improve the best known approximation guarantee after running polynomial time in expectation. Note that these best-known approximation guarantees can be obtained only by different greedy-style algorithms before.

Simulating the spread of infectious diseases in human communities is critical for predicting the trajectory of an epidemic and verifying various policies to control the devastating impacts of the outbreak. Many existing simulators are based on compartment models that divide people into a few subsets and simulate the dynamics among those subsets using hypothesized differential equations. However, these models lack the requisite granularity to study the effect of intelligent policies that influence every individual in a particular way. In this work, we introduce a simulator software capable of modeling a population structure and controlling the disease's propagation at an individualistic level. In order to estimate the confidence of the conclusions drawn from the simulator, we employ a comprehensive probabilistic approach where the entire population is constructed as a hierarchical random variable. This approach makes the inferred conclusions more robust against sampling artifacts and gives confidence bounds for decisions based on the simulation results. To showcase potential applications, the simulator parameters are set based on the formal statistics of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the outcome of a wide range of control measures is investigated. Furthermore, the simulator is used as the environment of a reinforcement learning problem to find the optimal policies to control the pandemic. The obtained experimental results indicate the simulator's adaptability and capacity in making sound predictions and a successful policy derivation example based on real-world data. As an exemplary application, our results show that the proposed policy discovery method can lead to control measures that produce significantly fewer infected individuals in the population and protect the health system against saturation.

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Categorization is a significant task in decision-making, which is a key part of human behavior. An interference effect is caused by categorization in some cases, which breaks the total probability principle. A negation quantum model (NQ model) is developed in this article to predict the interference. Taking the advantage of negation to bring more information in the distribution from a different perspective, the proposed model is a combination of the negation of a probability distribution and the quantum decision model. Information of the phase contained in quantum probability and the special calculation method to it can easily represented the interference effect. The results of the proposed NQ model is closely to the real experiment data and has less error than the existed models.

Latest Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are gathering outstanding results through a large-scale training, thus employing models composed of millions of parameters requiring extensive computational capabilities. Building such huge models undermines their replicability and increases the training instability. Moreover, multi-channel data, such as images or audio, are usually processed by real-valued convolutional networks that flatten and concatenate the input, losing any intra-channel spatial relation. To address these issues, here we propose a family of quaternion-valued generative adversarial networks (QGANs). QGANs exploit the properties of quaternion algebra, e.g., the Hamilton product for convolutions. This allows to process channels as a single entity and capture internal latent relations, while reducing by a factor of 4 the overall number of parameters. We show how to design QGANs and to extend the proposed approach even to advanced models. We compare the proposed QGANs with real-valued counterparts on multiple image generation benchmarks. Results show that QGANs are able to generate visually pleasing images and to obtain better FID scores with respect to their real-valued GANs. Furthermore, QGANs save up to 75% of the training parameters. We believe these results may pave the way to novel, more accessible, GANs capable of improving performance and saving computational resources.

Latent alignment objectives such as CTC and AXE significantly improve non-autoregressive machine translation models. Can they improve autoregressive models as well? We explore the possibility of training autoregressive machine translation models with latent alignment objectives, and observe that, in practice, this approach results in degenerate models. We provide a theoretical explanation for these empirical results, and prove that latent alignment objectives are incompatible with teacher forcing.