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Forecasting COVID-19 Case Counts Based on 2020 Ontario Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Objective: To develop machine learning models that can predict the number of COVID-19 cases per day given the last 14 days of environmental and mobility data. Approach: COVID-19 data from four counties around Toronto, Ontario, were used. Data were prepared into daily records containing the number of new COVID case counts, patient demographic data, outdoor weather variables, indoor environment factors, and human movement based on cell mobility and public health restrictions. This data was analyzed to determine the most important variables and their interactions. Predictive models were developed using CNN and LSTM deep neural network approaches. A 5-fold chronological cross-validation approach used these methods to develop predictive models using data from Mar 1 to Oct 14 2020, and test them on data covering Oct 15 to Dec 24 2020. Results: The best LSTM models forecasted tomorrow's daily COVID case counts with 90.7% accuracy, and the 7-day rolling average COVID case counts with 98.1% accuracy using independent test data. The best models to forecast the next 7 days of daily COVID case counts did so with 79.4% accuracy over all days. Models forecasting the 7-day rolling average case counts had a mean accuracy of 83.6% on the same test set. Conclusions: Our findings point to the importance of indoor humidity for the transmission of a virus such as COVID-19. During the coldest portions of the year, when humans spend greater amounts of time indoors or in vehicles, air quality drops within buildings, most significantly indoor relative humidity levels. Moderate to high indoor temperatures coupled with low IRH (below 20%) create conditions where viral transmission is more likely because water vapour ejected from an infected person's mouth can remain longer in the air because of evaporation and dry skin conditions, particularly in a recipient's airway, promotes transmission.


Investigation underway after AI tool may have misinterpreted a child's disability as parental neglect

FOX News

Fox News Flash top headlines are here. Check out what's clicking on Foxnews.com. For the two weeks that the Hackneys' baby girl lay in a Pittsburgh hospital bed weak from dehydration, her parents rarely left her side, sometimes sleeping on the fold-out sofa in the room. They stayed with their daughter around the clock when she was moved to a rehab center to regain her strength. Finally, the 8-month-old stopped batting away her bottles and started putting on weight again. "She was doing well and we started to ask when can she go home," Lauren Hackney said.


Geoscience Jobs : Earthworks : Tenure-Track Faculty Openings in Geosciences - Bogota, Colombia - Universidad de los Andes Tenure-Track Faculty Openings in Geosciences Bogota Colombia Universidad de los Andes

#artificialintelligence

The Department of Geosciences at the Universidad de Los Andes in Bogotรก, Colombia, invites applications for one tenure-track faculty position in Geophysics, with particular emphasis in the areas of Seismology, Seismic Hazards or Seismic Exploration. We encourage candidates whose research integrates numerical modeling or Artificial Intelligence techniques with data analysis and processing. Applicants must hold a Ph.D. degree, ideally a relevant postdoctoral experience, and should have a significant record of research experience documented by peer-reviewed publications. Candidates with relevant experience in seismological observatories/networks or industry are also encouraged to apply. Fluency in Spanish language is preferred but not compulsory.


ESCAPE: Countering Systematic Errors from Machine's Blind Spots via Interactive Visual Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Classification models learn to generalize the associations between data samples and their target classes. However, researchers have increasingly observed that machine learning practice easily leads to systematic errors in AI applications, a phenomenon referred to as AI blindspots. Such blindspots arise when a model is trained with training samples (e.g., cat/dog classification) where important patterns (e.g., black cats) are missing or periphery/undesirable patterns (e.g., dogs with grass background) are misleading towards a certain class. Even more sophisticated techniques cannot guarantee to capture, reason about, and prevent the spurious associations. In this work, we propose ESCAPE, a visual analytic system that promotes a human-in-the-loop workflow for countering systematic errors. By allowing human users to easily inspect spurious associations, the system facilitates users to spontaneously recognize concepts associated misclassifications and evaluate mitigation strategies that can reduce biased associations. We also propose two statistical approaches, relative concept association to better quantify the associations between a concept and instances, and debias method to mitigate spurious associations. We demonstrate the utility of our proposed ESCAPE system and statistical measures through extensive evaluation including quantitative experiments, usage scenarios, expert interviews, and controlled user experiments.


LAVA: Granular Neuron-Level Explainable AI for Alzheimer's Disease Assessment from Fundus Images

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease and the leading cause of dementia. Early diagnosis is critical for patients to benefit from potential intervention and treatment. The retina has been hypothesized as a diagnostic site for AD detection owing to its anatomical connection with the brain. Developed AI models for this purpose have yet to provide a rational explanation about the decision and neither infer the stage of disease's progression. Along this direction, we propose a novel model-agnostic explainable-AI framework, called Granular Neuron-level Explainer (LAVA), an interpretation prototype that probes into intermediate layers of the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) models to assess the AD continuum directly from the retinal imaging without longitudinal or clinical evaluation. This method is applied to validate the retinal vasculature as a biomarker and diagnostic modality for Alzheimer's Disease (AD) evaluation. UK Biobank cognitive tests and vascular morphological features suggest LAVA shows strong promise and effectiveness in identifying AD stages across the progression continuum.


Measuring Improvement of F$_1$-Scores in Detection of Self-Admitted Technical Debt

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning have witnessed rapid, significant improvements in Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Utilizing Deep Learning, researchers have taken advantage of repository comments in Software Engineering to produce accurate methods for detecting Self-Admitted Technical Debt (SATD) from 20 open-source Java projects' code. In this work, we improve SATD detection with a novel approach that leverages the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) architecture. For comparison, we re-evaluated previous deep learning methods and applied stratified 10-fold cross-validation to report reliable F$_1$-scores. We examine our model in both cross-project and intra-project contexts. For each context, we use re-sampling and duplication as augmentation strategies to account for data imbalance. We find that our trained BERT model improves over the best performance of all previous methods in 19 of the 20 projects in cross-project scenarios. However, the data augmentation techniques were not sufficient to overcome the lack of data present in the intra-project scenarios, and existing methods still perform better. Future research will look into ways to diversify SATD datasets in order to maximize the latent power in large BERT models.


Trustera: A Live Conversation Redaction System

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Trustera, the first functional system that redacts personally identifiable information (PII) in real-time spoken conversations to remove agents' need to hear sensitive information while preserving the naturalness of live customer-agent conversations. As opposed to post-call redaction, audio masking starts as soon as the customer begins speaking to a PII entity. This significantly reduces the risk of PII being intercepted or stored in insecure data storage. Trustera's architecture consists of a pipeline of automatic speech recognition, natural language understanding, and a live audio redactor module. The system's goal is three-fold: redact entities that are PII, mask the audio that goes to the agent, and at the same time capture the entity, so that the captured PII can be used for a payment transaction or caller identification. Trustera is currently being used by thousands of agents to secure customers' sensitive information.


Multi-modal Differentiable Unsupervised Feature Selection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-modal high throughput biological data presents a great scientific opportunity and a significant computational challenge. In multi-modal measurements, every sample is observed simultaneously by two or more sets of sensors. In such settings, many observed variables in both modalities are often nuisance and do not carry information about the phenomenon of interest. Here, we propose a multi-modal unsupervised feature selection framework: identifying informative variables based on coupled high-dimensional measurements. Our method is designed to identify features associated with two types of latent low-dimensional structures: (i) shared structures that govern the observations in both modalities and (ii) differential structures that appear in only one modality. To that end, we propose two Laplacian-based scoring operators. We incorporate the scores with differentiable gates that mask nuisance features and enhance the accuracy of the structure captured by the graph Laplacian. The performance of the new scheme is illustrated using synthetic and real datasets, including an extended biological application to single-cell multi-omics.


You Can Ground Earlier than See: An Effective and Efficient Pipeline for Temporal Sentence Grounding in Compressed Videos

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Given an untrimmed video, temporal sentence grounding (TSG) aims to locate a target moment semantically according to a sentence query. Although previous respectable works have made decent success, they only focus on high-level visual features extracted from the consecutive decoded frames and fail to handle the compressed videos for query modelling, suffering from insufficient representation capability and significant computational complexity during training and testing. In this paper, we pose a new setting, compressed-domain TSG, which directly utilizes compressed videos rather than fully-decompressed frames as the visual input. To handle the raw video bit-stream input, we propose a novel Three-branch Compressed-domain Spatial-temporal Fusion (TCSF) framework, which extracts and aggregates three kinds of low-level visual features (I-frame, motion vector and residual features) for effective and efficient grounding. Particularly, instead of encoding the whole decoded frames like previous works, we capture the appearance representation by only learning the I-frame feature to reduce delay or latency. Besides, we explore the motion information not only by learning the motion vector feature, but also by exploring the relations of neighboring frames via the residual feature. In this way, a three-branch spatial-temporal attention layer with an adaptive motion-appearance fusion module is further designed to extract and aggregate both appearance and motion information for the final grounding. Experiments on three challenging datasets shows that our TCSF achieves better performance than other state-of-the-art methods with lower complexity.


MultiModal Bias: Introducing a Framework for Stereotypical Bias Assessment beyond Gender and Race in Vision Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent breakthroughs in self supervised training have led to a new class of pretrained vision language models. While there have been investigations of bias in multimodal models, they have mostly focused on gender and racial bias, giving much less attention to other relevant groups, such as minorities with regard to religion, nationality, sexual orientation, or disabilities. This is mainly due to lack of suitable benchmarks for such groups. We seek to address this gap by providing a visual and textual bias benchmark called MMBias, consisting of around 3,800 images and phrases covering 14 population subgroups. We utilize this dataset to assess bias in several prominent self supervised multimodal models, including CLIP, ALBEF, and ViLT. Our results show that these models demonstrate meaningful bias favoring certain groups. Finally, we introduce a debiasing method designed specifically for such large pre-trained models that can be applied as a post-processing step to mitigate bias, while preserving the remaining accuracy of the model.