Welcome to the sixth edition of the AI Index Report! This year, the report introduces more original data than any previous edition, including a new chapter on AI public opinion, a more thorough technical performance chapter, original analysis about large language and multimodal models, detailed trends in global AI legislation records, a study of the environmental impact of AI systems, and more. The AI Index Report tracks, collates, distills, and visualizes data related to artificial intelligence. Our mission is to provide unbiased, rigorously vetted, broadly sourced data in order for policymakers, researchers, executives, journalists, and the general public to develop a more thorough and nuanced understanding of the complex field of AI. The report aims to be the world's most credible and authoritative source for data and insights about AI.

The multivariate Hawkes process (MHP) is widely used for analyzing data streams that interact with each other, where events generate new events within their own dimension (via self-excitation) or across different dimensions (via cross-excitation). However, in certain applications, the timestamps of individual events in some dimensions are unobservable, and only event counts within intervals are known, referred to as partially interval-censored data. The MHP is unsuitable for handling such data since its estimation requires event timestamps. In this study, we introduce the Partial Mean Behavior Poisson (PMBP) process, a novel point process which shares parameter equivalence with the MHP and can effectively model both timestamped and interval-censored data. We demonstrate the capabilities of the PMBP process using synthetic and real-world datasets. Firstly, we illustrate that the PMBP process can approximate MHP parameters and recover the spectral radius using synthetic event histories. Next, we assess the performance of the PMBP process in predicting YouTube popularity and find that it surpasses state-of-the-art methods. Lastly, we leverage the PMBP process to gain qualitative insights from a dataset comprising daily COVID-19 case counts from multiple countries and COVID-19-related news articles. By clustering the PMBP-modeled countries, we unveil hidden interaction patterns between occurrences of COVID-19 cases and news reporting.

Up to 150000 asteroids will be visible in the images of the ESA Euclid space telescope, and the instruments of Euclid offer multiband visual to near-infrared photometry and slitless spectra of these objects. Most asteroids will appear as streaks in the images. Due to the large number of images and asteroids, automated detection methods are needed. A non-machine-learning approach based on the StreakDet software was previously tested, but the results were not optimal for short and/or faint streaks. We set out to improve the capability to detect asteroid streaks in Euclid images by using deep learning. We built, trained, and tested a three-step machine-learning pipeline with simulated Euclid images. First, a convolutional neural network (CNN) detected streaks and their coordinates in full images, aiming to maximize the completeness (recall) of detections. Then, a recurrent neural network (RNN) merged snippets of long streaks detected in several parts by the CNN. Lastly, gradient-boosted trees (XGBoost) linked detected streaks between different Euclid exposures to reduce the number of false positives and improve the purity (precision) of the sample. The deep-learning pipeline surpasses the completeness and reaches a similar level of purity of a non-machine-learning pipeline based on the StreakDet software. Additionally, the deep-learning pipeline can detect asteroids 0.25-0.5 magnitudes fainter than StreakDet. The deep-learning pipeline could result in a 50% increase in the number of detected asteroids compared to the StreakDet software. There is still scope for further refinement, particularly in improving the accuracy of streak coordinates and enhancing the completeness of the final stage of the pipeline, which involves linking detections across multiple exposures.

In the 1950s, Barlow and Attneave hypothesised a link between biological vision and information maximisation. Following Shannon, information was defined using the probability of natural images. A number of physiological and psychophysical phenomena have been derived ever since from principles like info-max, efficient coding, or optimal denoising. However, it remains unclear how this link is expressed in mathematical terms from image probability. First, classical derivations were subjected to strong assumptions on the probability models and on the behaviour of the sensors. Moreover, the direct evaluation of the hypothesis was limited by the inability of the classical image models to deliver accurate estimates of the probability. In this work we directly evaluate image probabilities using an advanced generative model for natural images, and we analyse how probability-related factors can be combined to predict human perception via sensitivity of state-of-the-art subjective image quality metrics. We use information theory and regression analysis to find a combination of just two probability-related factors that achieves 0.8 correlation with subjective metrics. This probability-based sensitivity is psychophysically validated by reproducing the basic trends of the Contrast Sensitivity Function, its suprathreshold variation, and trends of the Weber-law and masking.

Recent years have witnessed much interest in temporal reasoning over knowledge graphs (KG) for complex question answering (QA), but there remains a substantial gap in human capabilities. We explore how to generalize relational graph convolutional networks (RGCN) for temporal KGQA. Specifically, we propose a novel, intuitive and interpretable scheme to modulate the messages passed through a KG edge during convolution, based on the relevance of its associated time period to the question. We also introduce a gating device to predict if the answer to a complex temporal question is likely to be a KG entity or time and use this prediction to guide our scoring mechanism. We evaluate the resulting system, which we call TwiRGCN, on TimeQuestions, a recently released, challenging dataset for multi-hop complex temporal QA. We show that TwiRGCN significantly outperforms state-of-the-art systems on this dataset across diverse question types. Notably, TwiRGCN improves accuracy by 9--10 percentage points for the most difficult ordinal and implicit question types.

Modeling non-Euclidean data is drawing extensive attention along with the unprecedented successes of deep neural networks in diverse fields. Particularly, a symmetric positive definite matrix is being actively studied in computer vision, signal processing, and medical image analysis, due to its ability to learn beneficial statistical representations. However, owing to its rigid constraints, it remains challenging to optimization problems and inefficient computational costs, especially, when incorporating it with a deep learning framework. In this paper, we propose a framework to exploit a diffeomorphism mapping between Riemannian manifolds and a Cholesky space, by which it becomes feasible not only to efficiently solve optimization problems but also to greatly reduce computation costs. Further, for dynamic modeling of time-series data, we devise a continuous manifold learning method by systematically integrating a manifold ordinary differential equation and a gated recurrent neural network. It is worth noting that due to the nice parameterization of matrices in a Cholesky space, training our proposed network equipped with Riemannian geometric metrics is straightforward. We demonstrate through experiments over regular and irregular time-series datasets that our proposed model can be efficiently and reliably trained and outperforms existing manifold methods and state-of-the-art methods in various time-series tasks.

Most popular dimension reduction (DR) methods like t-SNE and UMAP are based on minimizing a cost between input and latent pairwise similarities. Though widely used, these approaches lack clear probabilistic foundations to enable a full understanding of their properties and limitations. To that extent, we introduce a unifying statistical framework based on the coupling of hidden graphs using cross-entropy. These graphs induce a Markov random field dependency structure among the observations in both input and latent spaces. We show that existing pairwise similarity DR methods can be retrieved from our framework with particular choices of priors for the graphs. Moreover, this reveals that these methods relying on shift-invariant kernels suffer from a statistical degeneracy that explains poor performances in conserving coarse-grain dependencies. New links are drawn with PCA which appears as a non-degenerate graph coupling model.

In celebration of the launch of International Women in Robotics Day, the Women in Robotics organization is proud to release another "50 women in robotics you need to know about" collection of stories. With a growing robotics industry there are many opportunities for everyone to get involved. This is why we showcase the wide range of roles that women play in robotics today. Since 2012, the Women in Robotics organization has released a list of women building the future in robotics. The list has covered all ages, career stages, types of occupation and experience.

The adoption of generative AI technologies is swiftly expanding. Services employing both linguistic and mul-timodal models are evolving, offering users increasingly precise responses. Consequently, human reliance on these technologies is expected to grow rapidly. With the premise that people will be impacted by the output of AI, we explored approaches to help AI output produce better results. Initially, we evaluated how contemporary AI services competitively meet user needs, then examined society's depiction as mirrored by Large Language Models (LLMs). We did a query experiment, querying about social conventions in various countries and eliciting a one-word response. We compared the LLMs' value judgments with public data and suggested an model of decision-making in value-conflicting scenarios which could be adopted for future machine value judgments. This paper advocates for a practical approach to using AI as a tool for investigating other remote worlds. This re-search has significance in implicitly rejecting the notion of AI making value judgments and instead arguing a more critical perspective on the environment that defers judgmental capabilities to individuals. We anticipate this study will empower anyone, regardless of their capacity, to receive safe and accurate value judgment-based out-puts effectively.

This paper proposes a latent prompt Transformer model for solving challenging optimization problems such as molecule design, where the goal is to find molecules with optimal values of a target chemical or biological property that can be computed by an existing software. Our proposed model consists of three components. (1) A latent vector whose prior distribution is modeled by a Unet transformation of a Gaussian white noise vector. (2) A molecule generation model that generates the string-based representation of molecule conditional on the latent vector in (1). We adopt the causal Transformer model that takes the latent vector in (1) as prompt. (3) A property prediction model that predicts the value of the target property of a molecule based on a non-linear regression on the latent vector in (1). We call the proposed model the latent prompt Transformer model. After initial training of the model on existing molecules and their property values, we then gradually shift the model distribution towards the region that supports desired values of the target property for the purpose of molecule design. Our experiments show that our proposed model achieves state of the art performances on several benchmark molecule design tasks.