This paper details the work of the University of Groningen for the BabyLM Challenge. We follow the idea that, like babies, language models should be introduced to simpler concepts first and build off of that knowledge to understand more complex concepts. We examine this strategy of simple-then-complex through a variety of lenses, namely context size, vocabulary, and overall linguistic complexity of the data. We find that only one, context size, is truly beneficial to training a language model. However this simple change to context size gives us improvements of 2 points on average on (Super)GLUE tasks, 1 point on MSGS tasks, and 12\% on average on BLiMP tasks. Our context-limited model outperforms the baseline that was trained on 10$\times$ the amount of data.

The vast majority of time-series forecasting approaches require a substantial training dataset. However, many real-life forecasting applications have very little initial observations, sometimes just 40 or fewer. Thus, the applicability of most forecasting methods is restricted in data-sparse commercial applications. While there is recent work in the setting of very limited initial data (so-called `zero-shot' forecasting), its performance is inconsistent depending on the data used for pretraining. In this work, we take a different approach and devise ForecastPFN, the first zero-shot forecasting model trained purely on a novel synthetic data distribution. ForecastPFN is a prior-data fitted network, trained to approximate Bayesian inference, which can make predictions on a new time series dataset in a single forward pass. Through extensive experiments, we show that zero-shot predictions made by ForecastPFN are more accurate and faster compared to state-of-the-art forecasting methods, even when the other methods are allowed to train on hundreds of additional in-distribution data points.

Epidemic decision-making can effectively help the government to comprehensively consider public security and economic development to respond to public health and safety emergencies. Epidemic decision-making can effectively help the government to comprehensively consider public security and economic development to respond to public health and safety emergencies. Some studies have shown that intensive learning can effectively help the government to make epidemic decision, thus achieving the balance between health security and economic development. Some studies have shown that intensive learning can effectively help the government to make epidemic decision, thus achieving the balance between health security and economic development. However, epidemic data often has the characteristics of limited samples and high privacy. However, epidemic data often has the characteristics of limited samples and high privacy. This model can combine the epidemic situation data of various provinces for cooperative training to use as an enhanced learning model for epidemic situation decision, while protecting the privacy of data. The experiment shows that the enhanced federated learning can obtain more optimized performance and return than the enhanced learning, and the enhanced federated learning can also accelerate the training convergence speed of the training model. accelerate the training convergence speed of the client. At the same time, through the experimental comparison, A2C is the most suitable reinforcement learning model for the epidemic situation decision-making. learning model for the epidemic situation decision-making scenario, followed by the PPO model, and the performance of DDPG is unsatisfactory.

Many users reading online articles in various magazines may suffer considerable difficulty in distinguishing the implicit intents in texts. In this work, we focus on automatically recognizing the political intents of a given online newspaper by understanding the context of the text. To solve this task, we present a novel Korean text classification dataset that contains various articles. We also provide deep-learning-based text classification baseline models trained on the proposed dataset. Our dataset contains 12,000 news articles that may contain political intentions, from the politics section of six of the most representative newspaper organizations in South Korea. All the text samples are labeled simultaneously in two aspects (1) the level of political orientation and (2) the level of pro-government. To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the most large-scale Korean news dataset that contains long text and addresses multi-task classification problems. We also train recent state-of-the-art (SOTA) language models that are based on transformer architectures and demonstrate that the trained models show decent text classification performance.

Although large language models (LLMs) are widely deployed, the data used to train them is rarely disclosed. Given the incredible scale of this data, up to trillions of tokens, it is all but certain that it includes potentially problematic text such as copyrighted materials, personally identifiable information, and test data for widely reported reference benchmarks. However, we currently have no way to know which data of these types is included or in what proportions. In this paper, we study the pretraining data detection problem: given a piece of text and black-box access to an LLM without knowing the pretraining data, can we determine if the model was trained on the provided text? To facilitate this study, we introduce a dynamic benchmark WIKIMIA that uses data created before and after model training to support gold truth detection. We also introduce a new detection method Min-K% Prob based on a simple hypothesis: an unseen example is likely to contain a few outlier words with low probabilities under the LLM, while a seen example is less likely to have words with such low probabilities. Min-K% Prob can be applied without any knowledge about the pretraining corpus or any additional training, departing from previous detection methods that require training a reference model on data that is similar to the pretraining data. Moreover, our experiments demonstrate that Min-K% Prob achieves a 7.4% improvement on WIKIMIA over these previous methods. We apply Min-K% Prob to three real-world scenarios, copyrighted book detection, contaminated downstream example detection and privacy auditing of machine unlearning, and find it a consistently effective solution.

Recent discoveries have revealed that deep neural networks might behave in a biased manner in many real-world scenarios. For instance, deep networks trained on a large-scale face recognition dataset CelebA tend to predict blonde hair for females and black hair for males. Such biases not only jeopardize the robustness of models but also perpetuate and amplify social biases, which is especially concerning for automated decision-making processes in healthcare, recruitment, etc., as they could exacerbate unfair economic and social inequalities among different groups. Existing debiasing methods suffer from high costs in bias labeling or model re-training, while also exhibiting a deficiency in terms of elucidating the origins of biases within the model. To this respect, we propose a fast model debiasing framework (FMD) which offers an efficient approach to identify, evaluate and remove biases inherent in trained models. The FMD identifies biased attributes through an explicit counterfactual concept and quantifies the influence of data samples with influence functions. Moreover, we design a machine unlearning-based strategy to efficiently and effectively remove the bias in a trained model with a small counterfactual dataset. Experiments on the Colored MNIST, CelebA, and Adult Income datasets along with experiments with large language models demonstrate that our method achieves superior or competing accuracies compared with state-of-the-art methods while attaining significantly fewer biases and requiring much less debiasing cost. Notably, our method requires only a small external dataset and updating a minimal amount of model parameters, without the requirement of access to training data that may be too large or unavailable in practice.

Floods are one of the most common natural disasters, with a disproportionate impact in developing countries that often lack dense streamflow gauge networks. Accurate and timely warnings are critical for mitigating flood risks, but hydrological simulation models typically must be calibrated to long data records in each watershed. Using AI, we achieve reliability in predicting extreme riverine events in ungauged watersheds at up to a 5-day lead time that is similar to or better than the reliability of nowcasts (0-day lead time) from a current state of the art global modeling system (the Copernicus Emergency Management Service Global Flood Awareness System). Additionally, we achieve accuracies over 5-year return period events that are similar to or better than current accuracies over 1-year return period events. This means that AI can provide flood warnings earlier and over larger and more impactful events in ungauged basins. The model developed in this paper was incorporated into an operational early warning system that produces publicly available (free and open) forecasts in real time in over 80 countries. This work highlights a need for increasing the availability of hydrological data to continue to improve global access to reliable flood warnings.

Generated texts from large language models (LLMs) are remarkably close to high-quality human-authored text, raising concerns about their potential misuse in spreading false information and academic misconduct. Consequently, there is an urgent need for a highly practical detection tool capable of accurately identifying the source of a given text. However, existing detection tools typically rely on access to LLMs and can only differentiate between machine-generated and human-authored text, failing to meet the requirements of fine-grained tracing, intermediary judgment, and rapid detection. Therefore, we propose LLMDet, a model-specific, secure, efficient, and extendable detection tool, that can source text from specific LLMs, such as GPT-2, OPT, LLaMA, and others. In LLMDet, we record the next-token probabilities of salient n-grams as features to calculate proxy perplexity for each LLM. By jointly analyzing the proxy perplexities of LLMs, we can determine the source of the generated text. Experimental results show that LLMDet yields impressive detection performance while ensuring speed and security, achieving 98.54% precision and x5.0 faster for recognizing human-authored text. Additionally, LLMDet can effortlessly extend its detection capabilities to a new open-source model. We will provide an open-source tool at https://github.com/TrustedLLM/LLMDet.

Neural networks are capable of translating between languages -- in some cases even between two languages where there is little or no access to parallel translations, in what is known as Unsupervised Machine Translation (UMT). Given this progress, it is intriguing to ask whether machine learning tools can ultimately enable understanding animal communication, particularly that of highly intelligent animals. We propose a theoretical framework for analyzing UMT when no parallel translations are available and when it cannot be assumed that the source and target corpora address related subject domains or posses similar linguistic structure. We exemplify this theory with two stylized models of language, for which our framework provides bounds on necessary sample complexity; the bounds are formally proven and experimentally verified on synthetic data. These bounds show that the error rates are inversely related to the language complexity and amount of common ground. This suggests that unsupervised translation of animal communication may be feasible if the communication system is sufficiently complex.

Deep learning in medical imaging has the potential to minimize the risk of diagnostic errors, reduce radiologist workload, and accelerate diagnosis. Training such deep learning models requires large and accurate datasets, with annotations for all training samples. However, in the medical imaging domain, annotated datasets for specific tasks are often small due to the high complexity of annotations, limited access, or the rarity of diseases. To address this challenge, deep learning models can be pre-trained on large image datasets without annotations using methods from the field of self-supervised learning. After pre-training, small annotated datasets are sufficient to fine-tune the models for a specific task. The most popular self-supervised pre-training approaches in medical imaging are based on contrastive learning. However, recent studies in natural image processing indicate a strong potential for masked autoencoder approaches. Our work compares state-of-the-art contrastive learning methods with the recently introduced masked autoencoder approach "SparK" for convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on medical images. Therefore we pre-train on a large unannotated CT image dataset and fine-tune on several CT classification tasks. Due to the challenge of obtaining sufficient annotated training data in medical imaging, it is of particular interest to evaluate how the self-supervised pre-training methods perform when fine-tuning on small datasets. By experimenting with gradually reducing the training dataset size for fine-tuning, we find that the reduction has different effects depending on the type of pre-training chosen. The SparK pre-training method is more robust to the training dataset size than the contrastive methods. Based on our results, we propose the SparK pre-training for medical imaging tasks with only small annotated datasets.