This paper introduces causal scoring as a novel approach to frame causal estimation in the context of decision making. Causal scoring entails the estimation of scores that support decision making by providing insights into causal effects. We present three valuable causal interpretations of these scores: effect estimation (EE), effect ordering (EO), and effect classification (EC). In the EE interpretation, the causal score represents the effect itself. The EO interpretation implies that the score can serve as a proxy for the magnitude of the effect, enabling the sorting of individuals based on their causal effects. The EC interpretation enables the classification of individuals into high- and low-effect categories using a predefined threshold. We demonstrate the value of these alternative causal interpretations (EO and EC) through two key results. First, we show that aligning the statistical modeling with the desired causal interpretation improves the accuracy of causal estimation. Second, we establish that more flexible causal interpretations are plausible in a wider range of data-generating processes and propose conditions to assess their validity. We showcase the practical utility of the causal scoring framework through examples in diverse fields such as advertising, healthcare, and education, illustrating how it facilitates reasoning about flexible causal interpretations of statistical estimates in various contexts. The examples encompass confounded estimates, effect estimates on surrogate outcomes, and even predictions about non-causal quantities as potential causal scores.

Significant improvements in end-to-end speech translation (ST) have been achieved through the application of multi-task learning. However, the extent to which auxiliary tasks are highly consistent with the ST task, and how much this approach truly helps, have not been thoroughly studied. In this paper, we investigate the consistency between different tasks, considering different times and modules. We find that the textual encoder primarily facilitates cross-modal conversion, but the presence of noise in speech impedes the consistency between text and speech representations. Furthermore, we propose an improved multi-task learning (IMTL) approach for the ST task, which bridges the modal gap by mitigating the difference in length and representation. We conduct experiments on the MuST-C dataset. The results demonstrate that our method attains state-of-the-art results. Moreover, when additional data is used, we achieve the new SOTA result on MuST-C English to Spanish task with 20.8% of the training time required by the current SOTA method.

Preserving training dynamics across batch sizes is an important tool for practical machine learning as it enables the trade-off between batch size and wall-clock time. This trade-off is typically enabled by a scaling rule, for example, in stochastic gradient descent, one should scale the learning rate linearly with the batch size. Another important machine learning tool is the model EMA, a functional copy of a target model, whose parameters move towards those of its target model according to an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at a rate parameterized by a momentum hyperparameter. This model EMA can improve the robustness and generalization of supervised learning, stabilize pseudo-labeling, and provide a learning signal for Self-Supervised Learning (SSL). Prior works have not considered the optimization of the model EMA when performing scaling, leading to different training dynamics across batch sizes and lower model performance. In this work, we provide a scaling rule for optimization in the presence of a model EMA and demonstrate the rule's validity across a range of architectures, optimizers, and data modalities. We also show the rule's validity where the model EMA contributes to the optimization of the target model, enabling us to train EMA-based pseudo-labeling and SSL methods at small and large batch sizes. For SSL, we enable training of BYOL up to batch size 24,576 without sacrificing performance, a 6$\times$ wall-clock time reduction under idealized hardware settings.

In credit risk analysis, survival models with fixed and time-varying covariates are widely used to predict a borrower's time-to-event. When the time-varying drivers are endogenous, modelling jointly the evolution of the survival time and the endogenous covariates is the most appropriate approach, also known as the joint model for longitudinal and survival data. In addition to the temporal component, credit risk models can be enhanced when including borrowers' geographical information by considering spatial clustering and its variation over time. We propose the Spatio-Temporal Joint Model (STJM) to capture spatial and temporal effects and their interaction. This Bayesian hierarchical joint model reckons the survival effect of unobserved heterogeneity among borrowers located in the same region at a particular time. To estimate the STJM model for large datasets, we consider the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) methodology. We apply the STJM to predict the time to full prepayment on a large dataset of 57,258 US mortgage borrowers with more than 2.5 million observations. Empirical results indicate that including spatial effects consistently improves the performance of the joint model. However, the gains are less definitive when we additionally include spatio-temporal interactions.

The compact muon solenoid (CMS) experiment is a general-purpose detector for high-energy collision at the large hadron collider (LHC) at CERN. It employs an online data quality monitoring (DQM) system to promptly spot and diagnose particle data acquisition problems to avoid data quality loss. In this study, we present semi-supervised spatio-temporal anomaly detection (AD) monitoring for the physics particle reading channels of the hadronic calorimeter (HCAL) of the CMS using three-dimensional digi-occupancy map data of the DQM. We propose the GraphSTAD system, which employs convolutional and graph neural networks to learn local spatial characteristics induced by particles traversing the detector, and global behavior owing to shared backend circuit connections and housing boxes of the channels, respectively. Recurrent neural networks capture the temporal evolution of the extracted spatial features. We have validated the accuracy of the proposed AD system in capturing diverse channel fault types using the LHC Run-2 collision data sets. The GraphSTAD system has achieved production-level accuracy and is being integrated into the CMS core production system--for real-time monitoring of the HCAL. We have also provided a quantitative performance comparison with alternative benchmark models to demonstrate the promising leverage of the presented system.

In natural language processing (NLP), lexical function is a concept to unambiguously represent semantic and syntactic features of words and phrases in text first crafted in the Meaning-Text Theory. Hierarchical classification of lexical functions involves organizing these features into a tree-like hierarchy of categories or labels. This is a challenging task as it requires a good understanding of the context and the relationships among words and phrases in text. It also needs large amounts of labeled data to train language models effectively. In this paper, we present a dataset of most frequent Spanish verb-noun collocations and sentences where they occur, each collocation is assigned to one of 37 lexical functions defined as classes for a hierarchical classification task. Each class represents a relation between the noun and the verb in a collocation involving their semantic and syntactic features. We combine the classes in a tree-based structure, and introduce classification objectives for each level of the structure. The dataset was created by dependency tree parsing and matching of the phrases in Spanish news. We provide baselines and data splits for each objective.

The International Workshop on Reading Music Systems (WoRMS) is a workshop that tries to connect researchers who develop systems for reading music, such as in the field of Optical Music Recognition, with other researchers and practitioners that could benefit from such systems, like librarians or musicologists. The relevant topics of interest for the workshop include, but are not limited to: Music reading systems; Optical music recognition; Datasets and performance evaluation; Image processing on music scores; Writer identification; Authoring, editing, storing and presentation systems for music scores; Multi-modal systems; Novel input-methods for music to produce written music; Web-based Music Information Retrieval services; Applications and projects; Use-cases related to written music. These are the proceedings of the 5th International Workshop on Reading Music Systems, held in Milan, Italy on Nov. 4th 2023.

In disentangling the heterogeneity observed in psychopathology, personality of the patients is considered crucial. While it has been demonstrated that personality traits are reflected in the language used by a patient, we hypothesize that this enables automatic inference of the personality type directly from speech utterances, potentially more accurately than through a traditional questionnaire-based approach explicitly designed for personality classification. To validate this hypothesis, we adopt natural language processing (NLP) and standard machine learning tools for classification. We test this on a dataset of recorded clinical diagnostic interviews (CDI) on a sample of 79 patients diagnosed with major depressive disorder (MDD) -- a condition for which differentiated treatment based on personality styles has been advocated -- and classified into anaclitic and introjective personality styles. We start by analyzing the interviews to see which linguistic features are associated with each style, in order to gain a better understanding of the styles. Then, we develop automatic classifiers based on (a) standardized questionnaire responses; (b) basic text features, i.e., TF-IDF scores of words and word sequences; (c) more advanced text features, using LIWC (linguistic inquiry and word count) and context-aware features using BERT (bidirectional encoder representations from transformers); (d) audio features. We find that automated classification with language-derived features (i.e., based on LIWC) significantly outperforms questionnaire-based classification models. Furthermore, the best performance is achieved by combining LIWC with the questionnaire features. This suggests that more work should be put into developing linguistically based automated techniques for characterizing personality, however questionnaires still to some extent complement such methods.

The rapid development of language models (LMs) brings unprecedented accessibility and usage for both models and users. On the one hand, powerful LMs, trained with massive textual data, achieve state-of-the-art performance over numerous downstream NLP tasks. On the other hand, more and more attention is paid to unrestricted model accesses that may bring malicious privacy risks of data leakage. To address these issues, many recent works propose privacy-preserving language models (PPLMs) with differential privacy (DP). Unfortunately, different DP implementations make it challenging for a fair comparison among existing PPLMs. In this paper, we present P-Bench, a multi-perspective privacy evaluation benchmark to empirically and intuitively quantify the privacy leakage of LMs. Instead of only protecting and measuring the privacy of protected data with DP parameters, P-Bench sheds light on the neglected inference data privacy during actual usage. P-Bench first clearly defines multi-faceted privacy objectives during private fine-tuning. Then, P-Bench constructs a unified pipeline to perform private fine-tuning. Lastly, P-Bench performs existing privacy attacks on LMs with pre-defined privacy objectives as the empirical evaluation results. The empirical attack results are used to fairly and intuitively evaluate the privacy leakage of various PPLMs. We conduct extensive experiments on three datasets of GLUE for mainstream LMs.

This paper presents the real-world smart-meter dataset and offers an analysis of solutions derived from the Energy Prediction Technical Challenges, focusing primarily on two key competitions: the IEEE Computational Intelligence Society (IEEE-CIS) Technical Challenge on Energy Prediction from Smart Meter data in 2020 (named EP) and its follow-up challenge at the IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems (FUZZ-IEEE) in 2021 (named as XEP). These competitions focus on accurate energy consumption forecasting and the importance of interpretability in understanding the underlying factors. The challenge aims to predict monthly and yearly estimated consumption for households, addressing the accurate billing problem with limited historical smart meter data. The dataset comprises 3,248 smart meters, with varying data availability ranging from a minimum of one month to a year. This paper delves into the challenges, solutions and analysing issues related to the provided real-world smart meter data, developing accurate predictions at the household level, and introducing evaluation criteria for assessing interpretability. Additionally, this paper discusses aspects beyond the competitions: opportunities for energy disaggregation and pattern detection applications at the household level, significance of communicating energy-driven factors for optimised billing, and emphasising the importance of responsible AI and data privacy considerations. These aspects provide insights into the broader implications and potential advancements in energy consumption prediction. Overall, these competitions provide a dataset for residential energy research and serve as a catalyst for exploring accurate forecasting, enhancing interpretability, and driving progress towards the discussion of various aspects such as energy disaggregation, demand response programs or behavioural interventions.