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Empowering Many, Biasing a Few: Generalist Credit Scoring through Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the financial industry, credit scoring is a fundamental element, shaping access to credit and determining the terms of loans for individuals and businesses alike. Traditional credit scoring methods, however, often grapple with challenges such as narrow knowledge scope and isolated evaluation of credit tasks. Our work posits that Large Language Models (LLMs) have great potential for credit scoring tasks, with strong generalization ability across multiple tasks. To systematically explore LLMs for credit scoring, we propose the first open-source comprehensive framework. We curate a novel benchmark covering 9 datasets with 14K samples, tailored for credit assessment and a critical examination of potential biases within LLMs, and the novel instruction tuning data with over 45k samples. We then propose the first Credit and Risk Assessment Large Language Model (CALM) by instruction tuning, tailored to the nuanced demands of various financial risk assessment tasks. We evaluate CALM, and existing state-of-art (SOTA) open source and close source LLMs on the build benchmark. Our empirical results illuminate the capability of LLMs to not only match but surpass conventional models, pointing towards a future where credit scoring can be more inclusive, comprehensive, and unbiased. We contribute to the industry's transformation by sharing our pioneering instruction-tuning datasets, credit and risk assessment LLM, and benchmarks with the research community and the financial industry.


Anomaly Detection in Industrial Machinery using IoT Devices and Machine Learning: a Systematic Mapping

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Anomaly detection is critical in the smart industry for preventing equipment failure, reducing downtime, and improving safety. Internet of Things (IoT) has enabled the collection of large volumes of data from industrial machinery, providing a rich source of information for Anomaly Detection. However, the volume and complexity of data generated by the Internet of Things ecosystems make it difficult for humans to detect anomalies manually. Machine learning (ML) algorithms can automate anomaly detection in industrial machinery by analyzing generated data. Besides, each technique has specific strengths and weaknesses based on the data nature and its corresponding systems. However, the current systematic mapping studies on Anomaly Detection primarily focus on addressing network and cybersecurity-related problems, with limited attention given to the industrial sector. Additionally, these studies do not cover the challenges involved in using ML for Anomaly Detection in industrial machinery within the context of the IoT ecosystems. This paper presents a systematic mapping study on Anomaly Detection for industrial machinery using IoT devices and ML algorithms to address this gap. The study comprehensively evaluates 84 relevant studies spanning from 2016 to 2023, providing an extensive review of Anomaly Detection research. Our findings identify the most commonly used algorithms, preprocessing techniques, and sensor types. Additionally, this review identifies application areas and points to future challenges and research opportunities.


Phase Transitions of Civil Unrest across Countries and Time

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Phase transitions, characterized by abrupt shifts between macroscopic patterns of organization, are ubiquitous in complex systems. Despite considerable research in the physical and natural sciences, the empirical study of this phenomenon in societal systems is relatively underdeveloped. The goal of this study is to explore whether the dynamics of collective civil unrest can be plausibly characterized as a sequence of recurrent phase shifts, with each phase having measurable and identifiable latent characteristics. Building on previous efforts to characterize civil unrest as a self-organized critical system, we introduce a macro-level statistical model of civil unrest and evaluate its plausibility using a comprehensive dataset of civil unrest events in 170 countries from 1946 to 2017. Our findings demonstrate that the macro-level phase model effectively captures the characteristics of civil unrest data from diverse countries globally and that universal mechanisms may underlie certain aspects of the dynamics of civil unrest. We also introduce a scale to quantify a country's long-term unrest per unit of time and show that civil unrest events tend to cluster geographically, with the magnitude of civil unrest concentrated in specific regions. Our approach has the potential to identify and measure phase transitions in various collective human phenomena beyond civil unrest, contributing to a better understanding of complex social systems.


Using Natural Language Explanations to Rescale Human Judgments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rise of large language models (LLMs) has brought a critical need for high-quality human-labeled data, particularly for processes like human feedback and evaluation. A common practice is to label data via consensus annotation over crowdworker judgments. However, annotators' judgments for subjective tasks can differ in many ways: they may have different qualitative judgments about an example, and they may map those to a labeling scheme in different ways. We show that these nuances can be captured by natural language explanations, and propose a method to rescale ordinal annotations and explanations using LLMs. Specifically, we feed annotators' Likert ratings and corresponding explanations into an LLM and prompt it to produce a numeric score anchored in a scoring rubric. These scores should reflect the annotators' underlying assessments of the example. The rubric can be designed or modified after annotation, and include distinctions that may not have been known when the original error taxonomy was devised. We explore our technique in the context of rating system outputs for a document-grounded question answering task, where LLMs achieve near-human performance. Our method rescales the raw judgments without impacting agreement and brings the scores closer to human judgments grounded in the same scoring rubric.


A Simple and Powerful Framework for Stable Dynamic Network Embedding

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we address the problem of dynamic network embedding, that is, representing the nodes of a dynamic network as evolving vectors within a low-dimensional space. While the field of static network embedding is wide and established, the field of dynamic network embedding is comparatively in its infancy. We propose that a wide class of established static network embedding methods can be used to produce interpretable and powerful dynamic network embeddings when they are applied to the dilated unfolded adjacency matrix. We provide a theoretical guarantee that, regardless of embedding dimension, these unfolded methods will produce stable embeddings, meaning that nodes with identical latent behaviour will be exchangeable, regardless of their position in time or space. We additionally define a hypothesis testing framework which can be used to evaluate the quality of a dynamic network embedding by testing for planted structure in simulated networks. Using this, we demonstrate that, even in trivial cases, unstable methods are often either conservative or encode incorrect structure. In contrast, we demonstrate that our suite of stable unfolded methods are not only more interpretable but also more powerful in comparison to their unstable counterparts.


Iterative missing value imputation based on feature importance

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many datasets suffer from missing values due to various reasons,which not only increases the processing difficulty of related tasks but also reduces the accuracy of classification. To address this problem, the mainstream approach is to use missing value imputation to complete the dataset. Existing imputation methods estimate the missing parts based on the observed values in the original feature space, and they treat all features as equally important during data completion, while in fact different features have different importance. Therefore, we have designed an imputation method that considers feature importance. This algorithm iteratively performs matrix completion and feature importance learning, and specifically, matrix completion is based on a filling loss that incorporates feature importance. Our experimental analysis involves three types of datasets: synthetic datasets with different noisy features and missing values, real-world datasets with artificially generated missing values, and real-world datasets originally containing missing values. The results on these datasets consistently show that the proposed method outperforms the existing five imputation algorithms.To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that considers feature importance in the imputation model.


Holly Herndon's Infinite Art

The New Yorker

Last fall, the artist and musician Holly Herndon visited Torreciudad, a shrine to the Virgin Mary associated with the controversial Catholic group Opus Dei, in Aragón, Spain. The sanctuary, built in the nineteen-seventies, sits on a cliff overlooking an inviting blue reservoir, in a remote area just south of the Pyrenees. Herndon and her husband, Mathew Dryhurst, had been on a short vacation in the mountains nearby. They were particularly taken with an exhibit of Virgin Mary iconography from around the world: a faceless, abstract stone carving from Cameroon; a pale, blue-eyed statuette from Ecuador; a Black Mary from Senegal, dressed in an ornate gown of blue and gold. Moving from art work to art work, the couple discussed Mary's "embedding."


Automated Design of Metaheuristic Algorithms: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Metaheuristics have gained great success in academia and practice because their search logic can be applied to any problem with available solution representation, solution quality evaluation, and certain notions of locality. Manually designing metaheuristic algorithms for solving a target problem is criticized for being laborious, error-prone, and requiring intensive specialized knowledge. This gives rise to increasing interest in automated design of metaheuristic algorithms. With computing power to fully explore potential design choices, the automated design could reach and even surpass human-level design and could make high-performance algorithms accessible to a much wider range of researchers and practitioners. This paper presents a broad picture of automated design of metaheuristic algorithms, by conducting a survey on the common grounds and representative techniques in terms of design space, design strategies, performance evaluation strategies, and target problems in this field.


Feasible Action-Space Reduction as a Metric of Causal Responsibility in Multi-Agent Spatial Interactions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modelling causal responsibility in multi-agent spatial interactions is crucial for safety and efficiency of interactions of humans with autonomous agents. However, current formal metrics and models of responsibility either lack grounding in ethical and philosophical concepts of responsibility, or cannot be applied to spatial interactions. In this work we propose a metric of causal responsibility which is tailored to multi-agent spatial interactions, for instance interactions in traffic. In such interactions, a given agent can, by reducing another agent's feasible action space, influence the latter. Therefore, we propose feasible action space reduction (FeAR) as a metric of causal responsibility among agents. Specifically, we look at ex-post causal responsibility for simultaneous actions. We propose the use of Moves de Rigueur (MdR) - a consistent set of prescribed actions for agents - to model the effect of norms on responsibility allocation. We apply the metric in a grid world simulation for spatial interactions and show how the actions, contexts, and norms affect the causal responsibility ascribed to agents. Finally, we demonstrate the application of this metric in complex multi-agent interactions. We argue that the FeAR metric is a step towards an interdisciplinary framework for quantifying responsibility that is needed to ensure safety and meaningful human control in human-AI systems.


Purpose in the Machine: Do Traffic Simulators Produce Distributionally Equivalent Outcomes for Reinforcement Learning Applications?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

ABSTRACT Traffic simulators are used to generate data for learning in intelligent transportation systems (ITSs). A key question is to what extent their modelling assumptions affect the capabilities of ITSs to adapt to various scenarios when deployed in the real world. This work focuses on two simulators commonly used to train reinforcement learning (RL) agents for traffic applications, CityFlow and SUMO. A controlled virtual experiment varying driver behavior and simulation scale finds evidence against distributional equivalence in RL-relevant measures from these simulators, with the root mean squared error and KL divergence being significantly greater than 0 for all assessed measures. While granular real-world validation generally remains infeasible, these findings suggest that traffic simulators are not a deus ex machina for RL training: understanding the impacts of inter-simulator differences is necessary to train and deploy RL-based ITSs. 1 INTRODUCTION Transportation efficiency is becoming an increasingly critical challenge due to continual growth in the volume of people and objects that need to be transported. The 2021 Urban Mobility Report (Schrank et al. 2021) projected that, while the COVID-19 pandemic alleviated congestion, traffic levels in the US will quickly rebound in areas with expanding populations and job markets to produce the most rapid congestion growth since 1982. The increased traffic will stress existing infrastructure and result in social, economic, and environmental costs (Schrank et al. 2021), thus making the development and deployment of intelligent transportation systems (ITSs) a critical priority. At the same time, advances in computational algorithms and roadway infrastructure made in response to these challenges provide opportunities to enhance ITS learning. For example, novel traffic signal control technologies based on reinforcement learning (RL), which learn adaptive signaling policies from simulations generated using real-world traffic data, have already achieved performance on par with and even exceeding traditional control methods (Chen et al. 2020). However, collecting data for ITS learning remains a nontrivial task.