Scientists often want to learn about cause and effect from hierarchical data, collected from subunits nested inside units. Consider students in schools, cells in patients, or cities in states. In such settings, unit-level variables (e.g. each school's budget) may affect subunit-level variables (e.g. the test scores of each student in each school) and vice versa. To address causal questions with hierarchical data, we propose hierarchical causal models, which extend structural causal models and causal graphical models by adding inner plates. We develop a general graphical identification technique for hierarchical causal models that extends do-calculus. We find many situations in which hierarchical data can enable causal identification even when it would be impossible with non-hierarchical data, that is, if we had only unit-level summaries of subunit-level variables (e.g. the school's average test score, rather than each student's score). We develop estimation techniques for hierarchical causal models, using methods including hierarchical Bayesian models. We illustrate our results in simulation and via a reanalysis of the classic "eight schools" study.

Heritage Foundation researcher Emma Waters joins'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discuss a recent report that a global birth decline is good for the planet. More than 60 heads of state and government and hundreds of business leaders are coming to Switzerland to discuss the biggest global challenges during the World Economic Forum's annual gathering next week, ranging from Israeli President Isaac Herzog to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The likes of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and many others will descend on the Alpine ski resort town of Davos on Jan. 15-19, organizers said Tuesday. Attendees have their work cut out for them with two major wars -- the Israel-Hamas conflict and Russia's invasion of Ukraine -- plus problems like climate change, major disruptions to trade in the Red Sea, a weak global economy and misinformation powered by rapidly advancing artificial intelligence in a major election year. Trust has eroded on peace and security, with global cooperation down since 2016 and plummeting since 2020, forum President Borge Brende said at a briefing.

Amid the growing clamor in Congress to regulate AI, the company is bringing in reinforcements. After years of outreach to lawmakers, OpenAI in fall 2023 disclosed its first in-house lobbyist, and reported that it is working with global law firm DLA Piper, according to federal disclosures. OpenAI to date has not advocated for or against any specific bill, Makanju says, but she anticipates that will change in 2024, especially with the Schumer effort that is underway. Makanju's team is also growing around the world, with more than 20 people in the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan and Brazil.

Although increasing threats on biodiversity are now widely recognised, there are no accurate global maps showing whether and where species assemblages are at risk. We hereby assess and map at kilometre resolution the conservation status of the iconic orchid family, and discuss the insights conveyed at multiple scales. We introduce a new Deep Species Distribution Model trained on 1M occurrences of 14K orchid species to predict their assemblages at global scale and at kilometre resolution. We propose two main indicators of the conservation status of the assemblages: (i) the proportion of threatened species, and (ii) the status of the most threatened species in the assemblage. We show and analyze the variation of these indicators at World scale and in relation to currently protected areas in Sumatra island. Global and interactive maps available online show the indicators of conservation status of orchid assemblages, with sharp spatial variations at all scales. The highest level of threat is found at Madagascar and the neighbouring islands. In Sumatra, we found good correspondence of protected areas with our indicators, but supplementing current IUCN assessments with status predictions results in alarming levels of species threat across the island. Recent advances in deep learning enable reliable mapping of the conservation status of species assemblages on a global scale. As an umbrella taxon, orchid family provides a reference for identifying vulnerable ecosystems worldwide, and prioritising conservation actions both at international and local levels.

The three classes of architectures for time series prediction were tested. They differ by input layers which contain either convolutional, LSTM, or dense hypercomplex layers for 4D algebras. The input was four related Stock Market time series, and the prediction of one of them is expected. The optimization of hyperparameters related to the classes of architectures was performed in order to compare the best neural networks within the class. The results show that in most cases, the architecture with a hypercomplex dense layer provides similar MAE accuracy to other architectures, however, with considerably less trainable parameters. Thanks to it, hypercomplex neural networks can be learned and process data faster than the other tested architectures. Moreover, the order of the input time series has an impact on effectively.

As LLMs have become capable of processing more complex types of inputs, researchers have recently studied how to efficiently and affordably process possibly arbitrarily long sequences. One effective approach is to use a FIFO memory to store keys and values of an attention sublayer from past chunks to allow subsequent queries to attend. However, this approach requires a large memory and/or takes into the consideration the specific LM architecture. Moreover, due to the causal nature between the key-values in prior context and the queries at present, this approach cannot be extended to bidirectional attention such as in an encoder-decoder or PrefixLM decoder-only architecture. In this paper, we propose to use eviction policies, such as LRA and LFA, to reduce the memory size and adapt to various architectures, and we also propose the Attendre layer, a wait-to-attend mechanism by retrieving the key-value memory (K/V memory) with evicted queries in the query memory (Q memory). As a first step, we evaluate this method in the context length extension setup using the TriviaQA reading comprehension task, and show the effectiveness of the approach.

Modeling long user histories plays a pivotal role in enhancing recommendation systems, allowing to capture users' evolving preferences, resulting in more precise and personalized recommendations. In this study, we tackle the challenges of modeling long user histories for preference understanding in natural language. Specifically, we introduce a new User Embedding Module (UEM) that efficiently processes user history in free-form text by compressing and representing them as embeddings, to use them as soft prompts to a LM. Our experiments demonstrate the superior capability of this approach in handling significantly longer histories compared to conventional text-based methods, yielding substantial improvements in predictive performance. Models trained using our approach exhibit substantial enhancements, with up to 0.21 and 0.25 F1 points improvement over the text-based prompting baselines. The main contribution of this research is to demonstrate the ability to bias language models via user signals.

Improving energy efficiency in industrial production processes is crucial for competitiveness, and compliance with climate policies. This paper introduces a data-driven approach to identify optimal melting patterns in induction furnaces. Through time-series K-means clustering the melting patterns could be classified into distinct clusters based on temperature profiles. Using the elbow method, 12 clusters were identified, representing the range of melting patterns. Performance parameters such as melting time, energy-specific performance, and carbon cost were established for each cluster, indicating furnace efficiency and environmental impact. Multiple criteria decision-making methods including Simple Additive Weighting, Multiplicative Exponential Weighting, Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, modified TOPSIS, and VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje were utilized to determine the best-practice cluster. The study successfully identified the cluster with the best performance. Implementing the best practice operation resulted in an 8.6 % reduction in electricity costs, highlighting the potential energy savings in the foundry.

Fruit ripeness estimation models have for decades depended on spectral index features or colour-based features, such as mean, standard deviation, skewness, colour moments, and/or histograms for learning traits of fruit ripeness. Recently, few studies have explored the use of deep learning techniques to extract features from images of fruits with visible ripeness cues. However, the blackberry (Rubus fruticosus) fruit does not show obvious and reliable visible traits of ripeness when mature and therefore poses great difficulty to fruit pickers. The mature blackberry, to the human eye, is black before, during, and post-ripening. To address this engineering application challenge, this paper proposes a novel multi-input convolutional neural network (CNN) ensemble classifier for detecting subtle traits of ripeness in blackberry fruits. The multi-input CNN was created from a pre-trained visual geometry group 16-layer deep convolutional network (VGG16) model trained on the ImageNet dataset. The fully connected layers were optimized for learning traits of ripeness of mature blackberry fruits. The resulting model served as the base for building homogeneous ensemble learners that were ensemble using the stack generalization ensemble (SGE) framework. The input to the network is images acquired with a stereo sensor using visible and near-infrared (VIS-NIR) spectral filters at wavelengths of 700 nm and 770 nm. Through experiments, the proposed model achieved 95.1% accuracy on unseen sets and 90.2% accuracy with in-field conditions. Further experiments reveal that machine sensory is highly and positively correlated to human sensory over blackberry fruit skin texture.

The conservation of hydrological resources involves continuously monitoring their contamination. A multi-agent system composed of autonomous surface vehicles is proposed in this paper to efficiently monitor the water quality. To achieve a safe control of the fleet, the fleet policy should be able to act based on measurements and to the the fleet state. It is proposed to use Local Gaussian Processes and Deep Reinforcement Learning to jointly obtain effective monitoring policies. Local Gaussian processes, unlike classical global Gaussian processes, can accurately model the information in a dissimilar spatial correlation which captures more accurately the water quality information. A Deep convolutional policy is proposed, that bases the decisions on the observation on the mean and variance of this model, by means of an information gain reward. Using a Double Deep Q-Learning algorithm, agents are trained to minimize the estimation error in a safe manner thanks to a Consensus-based heuristic. Simulation results indicate an improvement of up to 24% in terms of the mean absolute error with the proposed models. Also, training results with 1-3 agents indicate that our proposed approach returns 20% and 24% smaller average estimation errors for, respectively, monitoring water quality variables and monitoring algae blooms, as compared to state-of-the-art approaches