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A Survey of Deep Learning and Foundation Models for Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep Learning has been successfully applied to many application domains, yet its advantages have been slow to emerge for time series forecasting. For example, in the well-known Makridakis (M) Competitions, hybrids of traditional statistical or machine learning techniques have only recently become the top performers. With the recent architectural advances in deep learning being applied to time series forecasting (e.g., encoder-decoders with attention, transformers, and graph neural networks), deep learning has begun to show significant advantages. Still, in the area of pandemic prediction, there remain challenges for deep learning models: the time series is not long enough for effective training, unawareness of accumulated scientific knowledge, and interpretability of the model. To this end, the development of foundation models (large deep learning models with extensive pre-training) allows models to understand patterns and acquire knowledge that can be applied to new related problems before extensive training data becomes available. Furthermore, there is a vast amount of knowledge available that deep learning models can tap into, including Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models fine-tuned with scientific domain knowledge. There is ongoing research examining how to utilize or inject such knowledge into deep learning models. In this survey, several state-of-the-art modeling techniques are reviewed, and suggestions for further work are provided.


Empowering Machines to Think Like Chemists: Unveiling Molecular Structure-Polarity Relationships with Hierarchical Symbolic Regression

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Thin-layer chromatography (TLC) is a crucial technique in molecular polarity analysis. Despite its importance, the interpretability of predictive models for TLC, especially those driven by artificial intelligence, remains a challenge. Current approaches, utilizing either high-dimensional molecular fingerprints or domain-knowledge-driven feature engineering, often face a dilemma between expressiveness and interpretability. To bridge this gap, we introduce Unsupervised Hierarchical Symbolic Regression (UHiSR), combining hierarchical neural networks and symbolic regression. UHiSR automatically distills chemical-intuitive polarity indices, and discovers interpretable equations that link molecular structure to chromatographic behavior.


AscDAMs: Advanced SLAM-based channel detection and mapping system

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Obtaining high-resolution, accurate channel topography and deposit conditions is the prior challenge for the study of channelized debris flow. Currently, wide-used mapping technologies including satellite imaging and drone photogrammetry struggle to precisely observe channel interior conditions of mountainous long-deep gullies, particularly those in the Wenchuan Earthquake region. SLAM is an emerging tech for 3D mapping; however, extremely rugged environment in long-deep gullies poses two major challenges even for the state-of-art SLAM: (1) Atypical features; (2) Violent swaying and oscillation of sensors. These issues result in large deviation and lots of noise for SLAM results. To improve SLAM mapping in such environments, we propose an advanced SLAM-based channel detection and mapping system, namely AscDAMs. It features three main enhancements to post-process SLAM results: (1) The digital orthophoto map aided deviation correction algorithm greatly eliminates the systematic error; (2) The point cloud smoothing algorithm substantially diminishes noises; (3) The cross section extraction algorithm enables the quantitative assessment of channel deposits and their changes. Two field experiments were conducted in Chutou Gully, Wenchuan County in China in February and November 2023, representing observations before and after the rainy season. We demonstrate the capability of AscDAMs to greatly improve SLAM results, promoting SLAM for mapping the specially challenging environment. The proposed method compensates for the insufficiencies of existing technologies in detecting debris flow channel interiors including detailed channel morphology, erosion patterns, deposit distinction, volume estimation and change detection. It serves to enhance the study of full-scale debris flow mechanisms, long-term post-seismic evolution, and hazard assessment.


Navigating Dataset Documentations in AI: A Large-Scale Analysis of Dataset Cards on Hugging Face

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Advances in machine learning are closely tied to the creation of datasets. While data documentation is widely recognized as essential to the reliability, reproducibility, and transparency of ML, we lack a systematic empirical understanding of current dataset documentation practices. To shed light on this question, here we take Hugging Face -- one of the largest platforms for sharing and collaborating on ML models and datasets -- as a prominent case study. By analyzing all 7,433 dataset documentation on Hugging Face, our investigation provides an overview of the Hugging Face dataset ecosystem and insights into dataset documentation practices, yielding 5 main findings: (1) The dataset card completion rate shows marked heterogeneity correlated with dataset popularity. (2) A granular examination of each section within the dataset card reveals that the practitioners seem to prioritize Dataset Description and Dataset Structure sections, while the Considerations for Using the Data section receives the lowest proportion of content. (3) By analyzing the subsections within each section and utilizing topic modeling to identify key topics, we uncover what is discussed in each section, and underscore significant themes encompassing both technical and social impacts, as well as limitations within the Considerations for Using the Data section. (4) Our findings also highlight the need for improved accessibility and reproducibility of datasets in the Usage sections. (5) In addition, our human annotation evaluation emphasizes the pivotal role of comprehensive dataset content in shaping individuals' perceptions of a dataset card's overall quality. Overall, our study offers a unique perspective on analyzing dataset documentation through large-scale data science analysis and underlines the need for more thorough dataset documentation in machine learning research.


Tweets to Citations: Unveiling the Impact of Social Media Influencers on AI Research Visibility

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As the number of accepted papers at AI and ML conferences reaches into the thousands, it has become unclear how researchers access and read research publications. In this paper, we investigate the role of social media influencers in enhancing the visibility of machine learning research, particularly the citation counts of papers they share. We have compiled a comprehensive dataset of over 8,000 papers, spanning tweets from December 2018 to October 2023, alongside 1:1 matched controls based on publication year, venue, and abstract topics. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in citations for papers endorsed by these influencers, with median citation counts 2-3 times higher than those of the control group. Additionally, the study delves into the geographic, gender, and institutional diversity of highlighted authors. These findings highlight the expanding influence of social media in scholarly communication and underscore the importance of an evolving ecosystem in today's digital academic landscape.


Graph Guided Question Answer Generation for Procedural Question-Answering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we focus on task-specific question answering (QA). To this end, we introduce a method for generating exhaustive and high-quality training data, which allows us to train compact (e.g., run on a mobile device), task-specific QA models that are competitive against GPT variants. The key technological enabler is a novel mechanism for automatic question-answer generation from procedural text which can ingest large amounts of textual instructions and produce exhaustive in-domain QA training data. While current QA data generation methods can produce well-formed and varied data, their non-exhaustive nature is sub-optimal for training a QA model. In contrast, we leverage the highly structured aspect of procedural text and represent each step and the overall flow of the procedure as graphs. We then condition on graph nodes to automatically generate QA pairs in an exhaustive and controllable manner. Comprehensive evaluations of our method show that: 1) small models trained with our data achieve excellent performance on the target QA task, even exceeding that of GPT3 and ChatGPT despite being several orders of magnitude smaller. 2) semantic coverage is the key indicator for downstream QA performance. Crucially, while large language models excel at syntactic diversity, this does not necessarily result in improvements on the end QA model. In contrast, the higher semantic coverage provided by our method is critical for QA performance.


Prompt Weight Experiments for LLM Instruction Fine-Tuning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a small study analyzing how prompt token classification loss weighting (PLW) affects the performance of 7B-size LLaMA models fine-tuned on instruction tasks. We recreated Stanford's Alpaca experiment with both LLaMA 1 and LLaMA 2 using multiple instruction datasets. We found that models fine-tuned on our short-completion dataset have a negative quadratic relationship with PLW while models fine-tuned on long-completion datasets were unaffected by PLW.


State Estimation for Continuum Multi-Robot Systems on SE(3)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In contrast to conventional robots, accurately modeling the kinematics and statics of continuum robots is challenging due to partially unknown material properties, parasitic effects, or unknown forces acting on the continuous body. Consequentially, state estimation approaches that utilize additional sensor information to predict the shape of continuum robots have garnered significant interest. This paper presents a novel approach to state estimation for systems with multiple coupled continuum robots, which allows estimating the shape and strain variables of multiple continuum robots in an arbitrary coupled topology. Simulations and experiments demonstrate the capabilities and versatility of the proposed method, while achieving accurate and continuous estimates for the state of such systems, resulting in average end-effector errors of 3.3 mm and 5.02{\deg} depending on the sensor setup. It is further shown, that the approach offers fast computation times of below 10 ms, enabling its utilization in quasi-static real-time scenarios with average update rates of 100-200 Hz. An open-source C++ implementation of the proposed state estimation method is made publicly available to the community.


NACHOS: Neural Architecture Search for Hardware Constrained Early Exit Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Early Exit Neural Networks (EENNs) endow astandard Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Early Exit Classifiers (EECs), to provide predictions at intermediate points of the processing when enough confidence in classification is achieved. This leads to many benefits in terms of effectiveness and efficiency. Currently, the design of EENNs is carried out manually by experts, a complex and time-consuming task that requires accounting for many aspects, including the correct placement, the thresholding, and the computational overhead of the EECs. For this reason, the research is exploring the use of Neural Architecture Search (NAS) to automatize the design of EENNs. Currently, few comprehensive NAS solutions for EENNs have been proposed in the literature, and a fully automated, joint design strategy taking into consideration both the backbone and the EECs remains an open problem. To this end, this work presents Neural Architecture Search for Hardware Constrained Early Exit Neural Networks (NACHOS), the first NAS framework for the design of optimal EENNs satisfying constraints on the accuracy and the number of Multiply and Accumulate (MAC) operations performed by the EENNs at inference time. In particular, this provides the joint design of backbone and EECs to select a set of admissible (i.e., respecting the constraints) Pareto Optimal Solutions in terms of best tradeoff between the accuracy and number of MACs. The results show that the models designed by NACHOS are competitive with the state-of-the-art EENNs. Additionally, this work investigates the effectiveness of two novel regularization terms designed for the optimization of the auxiliary classifiers of the EENN


Classification of Radiologically Isolated Syndrome and Clinically Isolated Syndrome with Machine-Learning Techniques

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Background and purpose: The unanticipated detection by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the brain of asymptomatic subjects of white matter lesions suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS) has been named radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS). As the difference between early MS [i.e. clinically isolated syndrome (CIS)] and RIS is the occurrence of a clinical event, it is logical to improve detection of the subclinical form without interfering with MRI as there are radiological diagnostic criteria for that. Our objective was to use machine-learning classification methods to identify morphometric measures that help to discriminate patients with RIS from those with CIS. Methods: We used a multimodal 3-T MRI approach by combining MRI biomarkers (cortical thickness, cortical and subcortical grey matter volume, and white matter integrity) of a cohort of 17 patients with RIS and 17 patients with CIS for single-subject level classification. Results: The best proposed models to predict the diagnosis of CIS and RIS were based on the Naive Bayes, Bagging and Multilayer Perceptron classifiers using only three features: the left rostral middle frontal gyrus volume and the fractional anisotropy values in the right amygdala and right lingual gyrus. The Naive Bayes obtained the highest accuracy [overall classification, 0.765; area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), 0.782]. Conclusions: A machine-learning approach applied to multimodal MRI data may differentiate between the earliest clinical expressions of MS (CIS and RIS) with an accuracy of 78%. Keywords: Bagging; Multilayer Perceptron; Naive Bayes classifier; clinically isolated syndrome; diffusion tensor imaging; machine-learning; magnetic resonance imaging; multiple sclerosis; radiologically isolated syndrome.