We study the sensitivity of a MAP configuration of a discrete probabilistic graphical model with respect to perturbations of its parameters. These perturbations are global, in the sense that simultaneous perturbations of all the parameters (or any chosen subset of them) are allowed. Our main contribution is an exact algorithm that can check whether the MAP configuration is robust with respect to given perturbations. Its complexity is essentially the same as that of obtaining the MAP configuration itself, so it can be promptly used with minimal effort. We use our algorithm to identify the largest global perturbation that does not induce a change in the MAP configuration, and we successfully apply this robustness measure in two practical scenarios: the prediction of facial action units with posed images and the classification of multiple real public data sets. A strong correlation between the proposed robustness measure and accuracy is verified in both scenarios.

Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large datasets typical of modern machine learning. The recently proposed consensus Monte Carlo algorithm removes this limitation by partitioning the data and drawing samples conditional on each partition in parallel [22]. A fixed aggregation function then combines these samples, yielding approximate posterior samples. We introduce variational consensus Monte Carlo (VCMC), a variational Bayes algorithm that optimizes over aggregation functions to obtain samples from a distribution that better approximates the target. The resulting objective contains an intractable entropy term; we therefore derive a relaxation of the objective and show that the relaxed problem is blockwise concave under mild conditions. We illustrate the advantages of our algorithm on three inference tasks from the literature, demonstrating both the superior quality of the posterior approximation and the moderate overhead of the optimization step. Our algorithm achieves a relative error reduction (measured against serial MCMC) of up to 39% compared to consensus Monte Carlo on the task of estimating 300-dimensional probit regression parameter expectations; similarly, it achieves an error reduction of 92% on the task of estimating cluster comembership probabilities in a Gaussian mixture model with 8 components in 8 dimensions. Furthermore, these gains come at moderate cost compared to the runtime of serial MCMC--achieving near-ideal speedup in some instances.

Selecting the optimal subset from a large set of variables is a fundamental problem in various learning tasks such as feature selection, sparse regression, dictionary learning, etc. In this paper, we propose the POSS approach which employs evolutionary Pareto optimization to find a small-sized subset with good performance. We prove that for sparse regression, POSS is able to achieve the best-so-far theoretically guaranteed approximation performance efficiently. Particularly, for the Exponential Decay subclass, POSS is proven to achieve an optimal solution. Empirical study verifies the theoretical results, and exhibits the superior performance of POSS to greedy and convex relaxation methods.

Gibbs sampling on factor graphs is a widely used inference technique, which often produces good empirical results. Theoretical guarantees for its performance are weak: even for tree structured graphs, the mixing time of Gibbs may be exponential in the number of variables. To help understand the behavior of Gibbs sampling, we introduce a new (hyper)graph property, called hierarchy width. We show that under suitable conditions on the weights, bounded hierarchy width ensures polynomial mixing time. Our study of hierarchy width is in part motivated by a class of factor graph templates, hierarchical templates, which have bounded hierarchy width--regardless of the data used to instantiate them. We demonstrate a rich application from natural language processing in which Gibbs sampling provably mixes rapidly and achieves accuracy that exceeds human volunteers.

This paper studies theoretically and empirically a method of turning machinelearning algorithms into probabilistic predictors that automatically enjoys a property of validity (perfect calibration) and is computationally efficient. The price to pay for perfect calibration is that these probabilistic predictors produce imprecise (in practice, almost precise for large data sets) probabilities. When these imprecise probabilities are merged into precise probabilities, the resulting predictors, while losing the theoretical property of perfect calibration, are consistently more accurate than the existing methods in empirical studies.

Multidimensional recurrent neural networks (MDRNNs) have shown a remarkable performance in the area of speech and handwriting recognition. The performance of an MDRNN is improved by further increasing its depth, and the difficulty of learning the deeper network is overcome by using Hessian-free (HF) optimization. Given that connectionist temporal classification (CTC) is utilized as an objective of learning an MDRNN for sequence labeling, the non-convexity of CTC poses a problem when applying HF to the network. As a solution, a convex approximation of CTC is formulated and its relationship with the EM algorithm and the Fisher information matrix is discussed. An MDRNN up to a depth of 15 layers is successfully trained using HF, resulting in an improved performance for sequence labeling.

We introduce the Gaussian Process Convolution Model (GPCM), a two-stage nonparametric generative procedure to model stationary signals as the convolution between a continuous-time white-noise process and a continuous-time linear filter drawn from Gaussian process. The GPCM is a continuous-time nonparametricwindow moving average process and, conditionally, is itself a Gaussian process with a nonparametric kernel defined in a probabilistic fashion. The generative model can be equivalently considered in the frequency domain, where the power spectral density of the signal is specified using a Gaussian process. One of the main contributions of the paper is to develop a novel variational freeenergy approach based on inter-domain inducing variables that efficiently learns the continuous-time linear filter and infers the driving white-noise process. In turn, this scheme provides closed-form probabilistic estimates of the covariance kernel and the noise-free signal both in denoising and prediction scenarios. Additionally, the variational inference procedure provides closed-form expressions for the approximate posterior of the spectral density given the observed data, leading to new Bayesian nonparametric approaches to spectrum estimation. The proposed GPCM is validated using synthetic and real-world signals.

Online movie review websites are valuable for information and discussion about movies. However, the massive spoiler reviews detract from the movie-watching experience, making spoiler detection an important task. Previous methods simply focus on reviews' text content, ignoring the heterogeneity of information in the platform. For instance, the metadata and the corresponding user's information of a review could be helpful. Besides, the spoiler language of movie reviews tends to be genre-specific, thus posing a domain generalization challenge for existing methods. To this end, we propose MMoE, a multi-modal network that utilizes information from multiple modalities to facilitate robust spoiler detection and adopts Mixture-of-Experts to enhance domain generalization. MMoE first extracts graph, text, and meta feature from the user-movie network, the review's textual content, and the review's metadata respectively. To handle genre-specific spoilers, we then adopt Mixture-of-Experts architecture to process information in three modalities to promote robustness. Finally, we use an expert fusion layer to integrate the features from different perspectives and make predictions based on the fused embedding. Experiments demonstrate that MMoE achieves state-of-the-art performance on two widely-used spoiler detection datasets, surpassing previous SOTA methods by 2.56% and 8.41% in terms of accuracy and F1-score. Further experiments also demonstrate MMoE's superiority in robustness and generalization.

The development of techniques that can be used to analyze and detect animal behavior is a crucial activity for the livestock sector, as it is possible to monitor the stress and animal welfare and contributes to decision making in the farm. Thus, the development of applications can assist breeders in making decisions to improve production performance and reduce costs, once the animal behavior is analyzed by humans and this can lead to susceptible errors and time consumption. Aggressiveness in pigs is an example of behavior that is studied to reduce its impact through animal classification and identification. However, this process is laborious and susceptible to errors, which can be reduced through automation by visually classifying videos captured in controlled environment. The captured videos can be used for training and, as a result, for classification through computer vision and artificial intelligence, employing neural network techniques. The main techniques utilized in this study are variants of transformers: STAM, TimeSformer, and ViViT, as well as techniques using convolutions, such as ResNet3D2, Resnet(2+1)D, and CnnLstm. These techniques were employed for pig video classification with the objective of identifying aggressive and non-aggressive behaviors. In this work, various techniques were compared to analyze the contribution of using transformers, in addition to the effectiveness of the convolution technique in video classification. The performance was evaluated using accuracy, precision, and recall. The TimerSformer technique showed the best results in video classification, with median accuracy of 0.729.

Standard Large Language Models (LLMs) struggle with handling dialogues with long contexts due to efficiency and consistency issues. According to our observation, dialogue contexts are highly structured, and the special token of \textit{End-of-Utterance} (EoU) in dialogues has the potential to aggregate information. We refer to the EoU tokens as ``conversational attention sinks'' (conv-attn sinks). Accordingly, we introduce StreamingDialogue, which compresses long dialogue history into conv-attn sinks with minimal losses, and thus reduces computational complexity quadratically with the number of sinks (i.e., the number of utterances). Current LLMs already demonstrate the ability to handle long context window, e.g., a window size of 200k or more. To this end, by compressing utterances into EoUs, our method has the potential to handle more than 200k of utterances, resulting in a prolonged dialogue learning. In order to minimize information losses from reconstruction after compression, we design two learning strategies of short-memory reconstruction (SMR) and long-memory reactivation (LMR). Our method outperforms strong baselines in dialogue tasks and achieves a 4 $\times$ speedup while reducing memory usage by 18 $\times$ compared to dense attention recomputation.