Yield forecasting, the science of predicting agricultural productivity before the crop harvest occurs, helps a wide range of stakeholders make better decisions around agricultural planning. This study aims to investigate whether machine learning-based yield prediction models can capably predict Kharif season rice yields at the district level in India several months before the rice harvest takes place. The methodology involved training 19 machine learning models such as CatBoost, LightGBM, Orthogonal Matching Pursuit, and Extremely Randomized Trees on 20 years of climate, satellite, and rice yield data across 247 of Indian rice-producing districts. In addition to model-building, a dynamic dashboard was built understand how the reliability of rice yield predictions varies across districts. The results of the proof-of-concept machine learning pipeline demonstrated that rice yields can be predicted with a reasonable degree of accuracy, with out-of-sample R2, MAE, and MAPE performance of up to 0.82, 0.29, and 0.16 respectively. These results outperformed test set performance reported in related literature on rice yield modeling in other contexts and countries. In addition, SHAP value analysis was conducted to infer both the importance and directional impact of the climate and remote sensing variables included in the model. Important features driving rice yields included temperature, soil water volume, and leaf area index. In particular, higher temperatures in August correlate with increased rice yields, particularly when the leaf area index in August is also high. Building on the results, a proof-of-concept dashboard was developed to allow users to easily explore which districts may experience a rise or fall in yield relative to the previous year.

Despite the effectiveness of data selection for large language models (LLMs) during pretraining and instruction fine-tuning phases, improving data efficiency in supervised fine-tuning (SFT) for specialized domains poses significant challenges due to the complexity of fine-tuning data. To bridge this gap, we introduce an effective and scalable data selection method for SFT, SmallToLarge (S2L), which leverages training trajectories from small models to guide the data selection for larger models. We demonstrate through extensive experiments that S2L significantly improves data efficiency in SFT for mathematical problem-solving, reducing the training data to just 11% of the original MathInstruct dataset (Yue et al., 2023) to match full dataset performance while outperforming state-of-the-art data selection algorithms by an average of 4.7% across 6 in- and out-domain evaluation datasets. Remarkably, selecting only 50K data for SFT, S2L achieves a 32.7% accuracy on the most challenging MATH (Hendrycks et al., 2021) benchmark, improving Phi-2 (Li et al., 2023b) by 16.6%. In clinical text summarization on the MIMIC-III dataset (Johnson et al., 2016), S2L again outperforms training on the full dataset using only 50% of the data. Notably, S2L can perform data selection using a reference model 40x smaller than the target model, proportionally reducing the cost of data selection.

Aedes aegypti is still one of the main concerns when it comes to disease vectors. Among the many ways to deal with it, there are important protocols that make use of egg numbers in ovitraps to calculate indices, such as the LIRAa and the Breteau Index, which can provide information on predictable outbursts and epidemics. Also, there are many research lines that require egg numbers, specially when mass production of mosquitoes is needed. Egg counting is a laborious and error-prone task that can be automated via computer vision-based techniques, specially deep learning-based counting with object detection. In this work, we propose a new dataset comprising field and laboratory eggs, along with test results of three neural networks applied to the task: Faster R-CNN, Side-Aware Boundary Localization and FoveaBox.

This paper introduces AL$\ell_0$CORE, a new form of probabilistic non-negative tensor decomposition. AL$\ell_0$CORE is a Tucker decomposition where the number of non-zero elements (i.e., the $\ell_0$-norm) of the core tensor is constrained to a preset value $Q$ much smaller than the size of the core. While the user dictates the total budget $Q$, the locations and values of the non-zero elements are latent variables and allocated across the core tensor during inference. AL$\ell_0$CORE -- i.e., $allo$cated $\ell_0$-$co$nstrained $core$-- thus enjoys both the computational tractability of CP decomposition and the qualitatively appealing latent structure of Tucker. In a suite of real-data experiments, we demonstrate that AL$\ell_0$CORE typically requires only tiny fractions (e.g.,~1%) of the full core to achieve the same results as full Tucker decomposition at only a correspondingly tiny fraction of the cost.

This post contains a list of the AI-related seminars that are scheduled to take place between 11 March and 30 April 2024. All events detailed here are free and open for anyone to attend virtually. Title to be confirmed Speaker: Misha Khodak (Carnegie Mellon University) Organised by: Carnegie Mellon University Zoom link is here. The impact of AI tools on the student experience in programming courses: A preliminary study with an intersectional analysis approach Speakers: Yash Tadimalla & Prof. Mary Lou Maher (University of North Carolina at Charlotte) Organised by: Raspberry PI Sign up here to join. ML-enhanced approaches to help accelerate materials design for extreme environments Speaker: Lory Brady Graham-Brady (Johns Hopkins University) Organised by: EPFL Join here.

Yoel Roth has spent the past 16 months recovering from a very bad, very public breakup. For two chaotic weeks after Elon Musk took control of Twitter in October 2022, Roth clung on to his job as the platform's head of trust and safety. He even won public praise from Musk for his "high integrity." But Roth ended up walking away from the job that November, and he was quickly targeted with a torrent of harassment, driven partly by lurid accusations from Musk himself and also by "The Twitter files," a dump of internal documents that revealed how Roth and other executives grappled with content moderation decisions. Roth has kept busy consulting, teaching, and studying decentralized social networks (he now posts on Bluesky).

With the long term accumulation of high quality educational data, artificial intelligence has shown excellent performance in knowledge tracing. However, due to the lack of interpretability and transparency of some algorithms, this approach will result in reduced stakeholder trust and a decreased acceptance of intelligent decisions. Therefore, algorithms need to achieve high accuracy, and users need to understand the internal operating mechanism and provide reliable explanations for decisions. This paper thoroughly analyzes the interpretability of KT algorithms. First, the concepts and common methods of explainable artificial intelligence and knowledge tracing are introduced. Next, explainable knowledge tracing models are classified into two categories: transparent models and black box models. Then, the interpretable methods used are reviewed from three stages: ante hoc interpretable methods, post hoc interpretable methods, and other dimensions. It is worth noting that current evaluation methods for explainable knowledge tracing are lacking. Hence, contrast and deletion experiments are conducted to explain the prediction results of the deep knowledge tracing model on the ASSISTment2009 by using three XAI methods. Moreover, this paper offers some insights into evaluation methods from the perspective of educational stakeholders. This paper provides a detailed and comprehensive review of the research on explainable knowledge tracing, aiming to offer some basis and inspiration for researchers interested in the interpretability of knowledge tracing.

A critical component when developing question-answering AIs is an adversarial dataset that challenges models to adapt to the complex syntax and reasoning underlying our natural language. Present techniques for procedurally generating adversarial texts are not robust enough for training on complex tasks such as answering multi-sentence trivia questions. We instead turn to human-generated data by introducing an interface for collecting adversarial human-written trivia questions. Our interface is aimed towards question writers and players of Quiz Bowl, a buzzer-based trivia competition where paragraph-long questions consist of a sequence of clues of decreasing difficulty. To incentivize usage, a suite of machine learning-based tools in our interface assist humans in writing questions that are more challenging to answer for Quiz Bowl players and computers alike. Not only does our interface gather training data for the groundbreaking Quiz Bowl AI project QANTA, but it is also a proof-of-concept of future adversarial data collection for question-answering systems. The results of performance-testing our interface with ten originally-composed questions indicate that, despite some flaws, our interface's novel question-writing features as well as its real-time exposure of useful responses from our machine models could facilitate and enhance the collection of adversarial questions. The code for our interface is available at: https://github.com/Zefan-Cai/QAML

The interactive decision-making in multi-agent autonomous racing offers insights valuable beyond the domain of self-driving cars. Mapless online path planning is particularly of practical appeal but poses a challenge for safely overtaking opponents due to the limited planning horizon. Accordingly, this paper introduces RaceMOP, a novel method for mapless online path planning designed for multi-agent racing of F1TENTH cars. Unlike classical planners that depend on predefined racing lines, RaceMOP operates without a map, relying solely on local observations to overtake other race cars at high speed. Our approach combines an artificial potential field method as a base policy with residual policy learning to introduce long-horizon planning capabilities. We advance the field by introducing a novel approach for policy fusion with the residual policy directly in probability space. Our experiments for twelve simulated racetracks validate that RaceMOP is capable of long-horizon decision-making with robust collision avoidance during overtaking maneuvers. RaceMOP demonstrates superior handling over existing mapless planners while generalizing to unknown racetracks, paving the way for further use of our method in robotics. We make the open-source code for RaceMOP available at http://github.com/raphajaner/racemop.

The Agent and AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Generated Content) technologies have recently made significant progress. We propose AesopAgent, an Agent-driven Evolutionary System on Story-to-Video Production. AesopAgent is a practical application of agent technology for multimodal content generation. The system integrates multiple generative capabilities within a unified framework, so that individual users can leverage these modules easily. This innovative system would convert user story proposals into scripts, images, and audio, and then integrate these multimodal contents into videos. Additionally, the animating units (e.g., Gen-2 and Sora) could make the videos more infectious. The AesopAgent system could orchestrate task workflow for video generation, ensuring that the generated video is both rich in content and coherent. This system mainly contains two layers, i.e., the Horizontal Layer and the Utility Layer. In the Horizontal Layer, we introduce a novel RAG-based evolutionary system that optimizes the whole video generation workflow and the steps within the workflow. It continuously evolves and iteratively optimizes workflow by accumulating expert experience and professional knowledge, including optimizing the LLM prompts and utilities usage. The Utility Layer provides multiple utilities, leading to consistent image generation that is visually coherent in terms of composition, characters, and style. Meanwhile, it provides audio and special effects, integrating them into expressive and logically arranged videos. Overall, our AesopAgent achieves state-of-the-art performance compared with many previous works in visual storytelling. Our AesopAgent is designed for convenient service for individual users, which is available on the following page: https://aesopai.github.io/.