South America
AI and the Problem of Knowledge Collapse
While artificial intelligence has the potential to process vast amounts of data, generate new insights, and unlock greater productivity, its widespread adoption may entail unforeseen consequences. We identify conditions under which AI, by reducing the cost of access to certain modes of knowledge, can paradoxically harm public understanding. While large language models are trained on vast amounts of diverse data, they naturally generate output towards the 'center' of the distribution. This is generally useful, but widespread reliance on recursive AI systems could lead to a process we define as "knowledge collapse", and argue this could harm innovation and the richness of human understanding and culture. However, unlike AI models that cannot choose what data they are trained on, humans may strategically seek out diverse forms of knowledge if they perceive them to be worthwhile. To investigate this, we provide a simple model in which a community of learners or innovators choose to use traditional methods or to rely on a discounted AI-assisted process and identify conditions under which knowledge collapse occurs. In our default model, a 20% discount on AI-generated content generates public beliefs 2.3 times further from the truth than when there is no discount. An empirical approach to measuring the distribution of LLM outputs is provided in theoretical terms and illustrated through a specific example comparing the diversity of outputs across different models and prompting styles. Finally, based on the results, we consider further research directions to counteract such outcomes.
A Longitudinal Study of Child Wellbeing Assessment via Online Interactions with a Social Robots
Abbasi, Nida Itrat, Laban, Guy, Ford, Tamsin, Jones, Peter B., Gunes, Hatice
Socially Assistive Robots are studied in different Child-Robot Interaction settings. However, logistical constraints limit accessibility, particularly affecting timely support for mental wellbeing. In this work, we have investigated whether online interactions with a robot can be used for the assessment of mental wellbeing in children. The children (N=40, 20 girls and 20 boys; 8-13 years) interacted with the Nao robot (30-45 mins) over three sessions, at least a week apart. Audio-visual recordings were collected throughout the sessions that concluded with the children answering user perception questionnaires pertaining to their anxiety towards the robot, and the robot's abilities. We divided the participants into three wellbeing clusters (low, med and high tertiles) using their responses to the Short Moods and Feelings Questionnaire (SMFQ) and further analysed how their wellbeing and their perceptions of the robot changed over the wellbeing tertiles, across sessions and across participants' gender. Our primary findings suggest that (I) online mediated-interactions with robots can be effective in assessing children's mental wellbeing over time, and (II) children's overall perception of the robot either improved or remained consistent across time. Supplementary exploratory analyses have also revealed that gender affected the children's wellbeing assessments as well as their perceptions of the robot.
First Mapping the Canopy Height of Primeval Forests in the Tallest Tree Area of Asia
Fan, Guangpeng, Yan, Fei, Zeng, Xiangquan, Xu, Qingtao, Wang, Ruoyoulan, Zhang, Binghong, Zhou, Jialing, Nan, Liangliang, Wang, Jinhu, Zhang, Zhiwei, Wang, Jia
We have developed the world's first canopy height map of the distribution area of world-level giant trees. This mapping is crucial for discovering more individual and community world-level giant trees, and for analyzing and quantifying the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation measures in the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon (YTGC) National Nature Reserve. We proposed a method to map the canopy height of the primeval forest within the world-level giant tree distribution area by using a spaceborne LiDAR fusion satellite imagery (Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI), ICESat-2, and Sentinel-2) driven deep learning modeling. And we customized a pyramid receptive fields depth separable CNN (PRFXception). PRFXception, a CNN architecture specifically customized for mapping primeval forest canopy height to infer the canopy height at the footprint level of GEDI and ICESat-2 from Sentinel-2 optical imagery with a 10-meter spatial resolution. We conducted a field survey of 227 permanent plots using a stratified sampling method and measured several giant trees using UAV-LS. The predicted canopy height was compared with ICESat-2 and GEDI validation data (RMSE =7.56 m, MAE=6.07 m, ME=-0.98 m, R^2=0.58 m), UAV-LS point clouds (RMSE =5.75 m, MAE =3.72 m, ME = 0.82 m, R^2= 0.65 m), and ground survey data (RMSE = 6.75 m, MAE = 5.56 m, ME= 2.14 m, R^2=0.60 m). We mapped the potential distribution map of world-level giant trees and discovered two previously undetected giant tree communities with an 89% probability of having trees 80-100 m tall, potentially taller than Asia's tallest tree. This paper provides scientific evidence confirming southeastern Tibet--northwestern Yunnan as the fourth global distribution center of world-level giant trees initiatives and promoting the inclusion of the YTGC giant tree distribution area within the scope of China's national park conservation.
Multi-channel Emotion Analysis for Consensus Reaching in Group Movie Recommendation Systems
Yerkin, Adilet, Kadyrgali, Elnara, Torekhan, Yerdauit, Shamoi, Pakizar
Watching movies is one of the social activities typically done in groups. Emotion is the most vital factor that affects movie viewers' preferences. So, the emotional aspect of the movie needs to be determined and analyzed for further recommendations. It can be challenging to choose a movie that appeals to the emotions of a diverse group. Reaching an agreement for a group can be difficult due to the various genres and choices. This paper proposes a novel approach to group movie suggestions by examining emotions from three different channels: movie descriptions (text), soundtracks (audio), and posters (image). We employ the Jaccard similarity index to match each participant's emotional preferences to prospective movie choices, followed by a fuzzy inference technique to determine group consensus. We use a weighted integration process for the fusion of emotion scores from diverse data types. Then, group movie recommendation is based on prevailing emotions and viewers' best-loved movies. After determining the recommendations, the group's consensus level is calculated using a fuzzy inference system, taking participants' feedback as input. Participants (n=130) in the survey were provided with different emotion categories and asked to select the emotions best suited for particular movies (n=12). Comparison results between predicted and actual scores demonstrate the efficiency of using emotion detection for this problem (Jaccard similarity index = 0.76). We explored the relationship between induced emotions and movie popularity as an additional experiment, analyzing emotion distribution in 100 popular movies from the TMDB database. Such systems can potentially improve the accuracy of movie recommendation systems and achieve a high level of consensus among participants with diverse preferences.
Multifidelity Surrogate Models: A New Data Fusion Perspective
Multifidelity surrogate modelling combines data of varying accuracy and cost from different sources. It strategically uses low-fidelity models for rapid evaluations, saving computational resources, and high-fidelity models for detailed refinement. It improves decision-making by addressing uncertainties and surpassing the limits of single-fidelity models, which either oversimplify or are computationally intensive. Blending high-fidelity data for detailed responses with frequent low-fidelity data for quick approximations facilitates design optimisation in various domains. Despite progress in interpolation, regression, enhanced sampling, error estimation, variable fidelity, and data fusion techniques, challenges persist in selecting fidelity levels and developing efficient data fusion methods. This study proposes a new fusion approach to construct multi-fidelity surrogate models by constructing gradient-only surrogates that use only gradients to construct regression surfaces. Results are demonstrated on foundational example problems that isolate and illustrate the fusion approach's efficacy, avoiding the need for complex examples that obfuscate the main concept.
Evaluating Retrieval Quality in Retrieval-Augmented Generation
Salemi, Alireza, Zamani, Hamed
Evaluating retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) presents challenges, particularly for retrieval models within these systems. Traditional end-to-end evaluation methods are computationally expensive. Furthermore, evaluation of the retrieval model's performance based on query-document relevance labels shows a small correlation with the RAG system's downstream performance. We propose a novel evaluation approach, eRAG, where each document in the retrieval list is individually utilized by the large language model within the RAG system. The output generated for each document is then evaluated based on the downstream task ground truth labels. In this manner, the downstream performance for each document serves as its relevance label. We employ various downstream task metrics to obtain document-level annotations and aggregate them using set-based or ranking metrics. Extensive experiments on a wide range of datasets demonstrate that eRAG achieves a higher correlation with downstream RAG performance compared to baseline methods, with improvements in Kendall's $\tau$ correlation ranging from 0.168 to 0.494. Additionally, eRAG offers significant computational advantages, improving runtime and consuming up to 50 times less GPU memory than end-to-end evaluation.
Incorporating Different Verbal Cues to Improve Text-Based Computer-Delivered Health Messaging
The ubiquity of smartphones has led to an increase in on demand healthcare being supplied. For example, people can share their illness-related experiences with others similar to themselves, and healthcare experts can offer advice for better treatment and care for remediable, terminal and mental illnesses. As well as this human-to-human communication, there has been an increased use of human-to-computer digital health messaging, such as chatbots. These can prove advantageous as they offer synchronous and anonymous feedback without the need for a human conversational partner. However, there are many subtleties involved in human conversation that a computer agent may not properly exhibit. For example, there are various conversational styles, etiquettes, politeness strategies or empathic responses that need to be chosen appropriately for the conversation. Encouragingly, computers are social actors (CASA) posits that people apply the same social norms to computers as they would do to people. On from this, previous studies have focused on applying conversational strategies to computer agents to make them embody more favourable human characteristics. However, if a computer agent fails in this regard it can lead to negative reactions from users. Therefore, in this dissertation we describe a series of studies we carried out to lead to more effective human-to-computer digital health messaging. In our first study, we use the crowd [...] Our second study investigates the effect of a health chatbot's conversational style [...] In our final study, we investigate the format used by a chatbot when [...] In summary, we have researched how to create more effective digital health interventions starting from generating health messages, to choosing an appropriate formality of messaging, and finally to formatting messages which reference a user's previous utterances.
A Review of Graph Neural Networks in Epidemic Modeling
Liu, Zewen, Wan, Guancheng, Prakash, B. Aditya, Lau, Max S. Y., Jin, Wei
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a growing interest in studying epidemiological models. Traditional mechanistic models mathematically describe the transmission mechanisms of infectious diseases. However, they often suffer from limitations of oversimplified or fixed assumptions, which could cause sub-optimal predictive power and inefficiency in capturing complex relation information. Consequently, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a progressively popular tool in epidemic research. In this paper, we endeavor to furnish a comprehensive review of GNNs in epidemic tasks and highlight potential future directions. To accomplish this objective, we introduce hierarchical taxonomies for both epidemic tasks and methodologies, offering a trajectory of development within this domain. For epidemic tasks, we establish a taxonomy akin to those typically employed within the epidemic domain. For methodology, we categorize existing work into Neural Models and Hybrid Models. Following this, we perform an exhaustive and systematic examination of the methodologies, encompassing both the tasks and their technical details. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of existing methods from diverse perspectives and systematically propose future research directions. This survey aims to bridge literature gaps and promote the progression of this promising field, with a list of relevant papers at https://github.com/Emory-Melody/awesome-epidemic-modelingpapers. We hope that it will facilitate synergies between the communities of GNNs and epidemiology, and contribute to their collective progress.
Inference of Causal Networks using a Topological Threshold
Barroso, Filipe, Gomes, Diogo, Baxter, Gareth J.
We propose a constraint-based algorithm, which automatically determines causal relevance thresholds, to infer causal networks from data. We call these topological thresholds. We present two methods for determining the threshold: the first seeks a set of edges that leaves no disconnected nodes in the network; the second seeks a causal large connected component in the data. We tested these methods both for discrete synthetic and real data, and compared the results with those obtained for the PC algorithm, which we took as the benchmark. We show that this novel algorithm is generally faster and more accurate than the PC algorithm. The algorithm for determining the thresholds requires choosing a measure of causality. We tested our methods for Fisher Correlations, commonly used in PC algorithm (for instance in \cite{kalisch2005}), and further proposed a discrete and asymmetric measure of causality, that we called Net Influence, which provided very good results when inferring causal networks from discrete data. This metric allows for inferring directionality of the edges in the process of applying the thresholds, speeding up the inference of causal DAGs.
Evaluating Subword Tokenization: Alien Subword Composition and OOV Generalization Challenge
Batsuren, Khuyagbaatar, Vylomova, Ekaterina, Dankers, Verna, Delgerbaatar, Tsetsuukhei, Uzan, Omri, Pinter, Yuval, Bella, Gábor
The popular subword tokenizers of current language models, such as Byte-Pair Encoding (BPE), are known not to respect morpheme boundaries, which affects the downstream performance of the models. While many improved tokenization algorithms have been proposed, their evaluation and cross-comparison is still an open problem. As a solution, we propose a combined intrinsic-extrinsic evaluation framework for subword tokenization. Intrinsic evaluation is based on our new UniMorph Labeller tool that classifies subword tokenization as either morphological or alien. Extrinsic evaluation, in turn, is performed via the Out-of-Vocabulary Generalization Challenge 1.0 benchmark, which consists of three newly specified downstream text classification tasks. Our empirical findings show that the accuracy of UniMorph Labeller is 98%, and that, in all language models studied (including ALBERT, BERT, RoBERTa, and DeBERTa), alien tokenization leads to poorer generalizations compared to morphological tokenization for semantic compositionality of word meanings.