In this paper, we propose an autonomous information seeking visual question answering framework, AVIS. Our method leverages a Large Language Model (LLM) to dynamically strategize the utilization of external tools and to investigate their outputs, thereby acquiring the indispensable knowledge needed to provide answers to the posed questions. Responding to visual questions that necessitate external knowledge, such as "What event is commemorated by the building depicted in this image?", is a complex task. This task presents a combinatorial search space that demands a sequence of actions, including invoking APIs, analyzing their responses, and making informed decisions. We conduct a user study to collect a variety of instances of human decision-making when faced with this task. This data is then used to design a system comprised of three components: an LLM-powered planner that dynamically determines which tool to use next, an LLM-powered reasoner that analyzes and extracts key information from the tool outputs, and a working memory component that retains the acquired information throughout the process. The collected user behavior serves as a guide for our system in two key ways. First, we create a transition graph by analyzing the sequence of decisions made by users. This graph delineates distinct states and confines the set of actions available at each state. Second, we use examples of user decision-making to provide our LLM-powered planner and reasoner with relevant contextual instances, enhancing their capacity to make informed decisions. We show that AVIS achieves state-of-the-art results on knowledge-intensive visual question answering benchmarks such as Infoseek and OK-VQA.

The explosive growth in artificial intelligence in recent years -- crowned with the meteoric rise of generative AI chatbots like ChatGPT -- has seen the technology take on many tasks that, formerly, only human minds could handle. But despite their increasingly capable linguistic computations, these machine learning systems remain surprisingly inept at making the sorts of cognitive leaps and logical deductions that even the average teenager can consistently get right. In this week's Hitting the Books excerpt, A Brief History of Intelligence: Evolution, AI, and the Five Breakthroughs That Made Our Brains, AI entrepreneur Max Bennett explores the quizzical gap in computer competency by exploring the development of the organic machine AIs are modeled after: the human brain. Focusing on the five evolutionary "breakthroughs," amidst myriad genetic dead ends and unsuccessful offshoots, that led our species to our modern minds, Bennett also shows that the same advancements that took humanity eons to evolve can be adapted to help guide development of the AI technologies of tomorrow. In the excerpt below, we take a look at how generative AI systems like GPT-3 are built to mimic the predictive functions of the neocortex, but still can't quite get a grasp on the vagaries of human speech.

As cyclones become more intense due to climate change, the rise of AI-based modelling provides a more affordable and accessible approach compared to traditional methods based on mathematical models. This work leverages diffusion models to forecast cyclone trajectories and precipitation patterns by integrating satellite imaging, remote sensing, and atmospheric data, employing a cascaded approach that incorporates forecasting, super-resolution, and precipitation modelling, with training on a dataset of 51 cyclones from six major basins. Experiments demonstrate that the final forecasts from the cascaded models show accurate predictions up to a 36-hour rollout, with SSIM and PSNR values exceeding 0.5 and 20 dB, respectively, for all three tasks. This work also highlights the promising efficiency of AI methods such as diffusion models for high-performance needs, such as cyclone forecasting, while remaining computationally affordable, making them ideal for highly vulnerable regions with critical forecasting needs and financial limitations.

Small data learning problems are characterized by a significant discrepancy between the limited amount of response variable observations and the large feature space dimension. In this setting, the common learning tools struggle to identify the features important for the classification task from those that bear no relevant information, and cannot derive an appropriate learning rule which allows to discriminate between different classes. As a potential solution to this problem, here we exploit the idea of reducing and rotating the feature space in a lower-dimensional gauge and propose the Gauge-Optimal Approximate Learning (GOAL) algorithm, which provides an analytically tractable joint solution to the dimension reduction, feature segmentation and classification problems for small data learning problems. We prove that the optimal solution of the GOAL algorithm consists in piecewise-linear functions in the Euclidean space, and that it can be approximated through a monotonically convergent algorithm which presents -- under the assumption of a discrete segmentation of the feature space -- a closed-form solution for each optimization substep and an overall linear iteration cost scaling. The GOAL algorithm has been compared to other state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) tools on both synthetic data and challenging real-world applications from climate science and bioinformatics (i.e., prediction of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and inference of epigenetically-induced gene-activity networks from limited experimental data). The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the reported best competitors for these problems both in learning performance and computational cost.

It has broad applications including but not limited to climatology, energy, finance, trading, and logistics (Petropoulos et al., 2022). Following the great success of Transformers (Vaswani et al., 2017) in NLP (Kalyan et al., 2021), CV (Khan et al., 2021), and speech (Karita et al., 2019), Transformers have been introduced in time series forecasting and achieves promising results (Wen et al., 2022). One of the primary drawbacks of Transformers is their quadratic complexity in both computation and memory, making them less suitable for long-term forecasting. To address this limitation, a plethora of Transformer-based models, e.g., LogTrans, Informer, AutoFormer, Performer, and PyraFormer (Li et al., 2019; Zhou et al., 2021; Wu et al., 2021; Choromanski et al., 2021; Liu et al., 2022a), have been proposed to enhance predictive performance while maintaining low complexity. Notably, Zhou et al. (2022b) observed that most time series which are dense in the time domain (TD) tend to have a sparse representation in the frequency domain (FD).

Traffic volume is an indispensable ingredient to provide fine-grained information for traffic management and control. However, due to limited deployment of traffic sensors, obtaining full-scale volume information is far from easy. Existing works on this topic primarily focus on improving the overall estimation accuracy of a particular method and ignore the underlying challenges of volume estimation, thereby having inferior performances on some critical tasks. This paper studies two key problems with regard to traffic volume estimation: (1) underdetermined traffic flows caused by undetected movements, and (2) non-equilibrium traffic flows arise from congestion propagation. Here we demonstrate a graph-based deep learning method that can offer a data-driven, model-free and correlation adaptive approach to tackle the above issues and perform accurate network-wide traffic volume estimation. Particularly, in order to quantify the dynamic and nonlinear relationships between traffic speed and volume for the estimation of underdetermined flows, a speed patternadaptive adjacent matrix based on graph attention is developed and integrated into the graph convolution process, to capture non-local correlations between sensors. To measure the impacts of non-equilibrium flows, a temporal masked and clipped attention combined with a gated temporal convolution layer is customized to capture time-asynchronous correlations between upstream and downstream sensors. We then evaluate our model on a real-world highway traffic volume dataset and compare it with several benchmark models. It is demonstrated that the proposed model achieves high estimation accuracy even under 20% sensor coverage rate and outperforms other baselines significantly, especially on underdetermined and non-equilibrium flow locations. Furthermore, comprehensive quantitative model analysis are also carried out to justify the model designs.

In the burgeoning ecosystem of Internet of Things, multivariate time series (MTS) data has become ubiquitous, highlighting the fundamental role of time series forecasting across numerous applications. The crucial challenge of long-term MTS forecasting requires adept models capable of capturing both intra- and inter-series dependencies. Recent advancements in deep learning, notably Transformers, have shown promise. However, many prevailing methods either marginalize inter-series dependencies or overlook them entirely. To bridge this gap, this paper introduces a novel series-aware framework, explicitly designed to emphasize the significance of such dependencies. At the heart of this framework lies our specific implementation: the SageFormer. As a Series-aware Graph-enhanced Transformer model, SageFormer proficiently discerns and models the intricate relationships between series using graph structures. Beyond capturing diverse temporal patterns, it also curtails redundant information across series. Notably, the series-aware framework seamlessly integrates with existing Transformer-based models, enriching their ability to comprehend inter-series relationships. Extensive experiments on real-world and synthetic datasets validate the superior performance of SageFormer against contemporary state-of-the-art approaches.

A long-standing goal of AI systems is to perform complex multimodal reasoning like humans. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have made remarkable strides in such multi-step reasoning on the language modality solely by leveraging the chain of thought (CoT) to mimic human thinking. However, the transfer of these advancements to multimodal contexts introduces heightened challenges, including but not limited to the impractical need for labor-intensive annotation and the limitations in terms of flexibility, generalizability, and explainability. To evoke CoT reasoning in multimodality, this work first conducts an in-depth analysis of these challenges posed by multimodality and presents two key insights: "keeping critical thinking" and "letting everyone do their jobs" in multimodal CoT reasoning. Furthermore, this study proposes a novel DDCoT prompting that maintains a critical attitude through negative-space prompting and incorporates multimodality into reasoning by first dividing the reasoning responsibility of LLMs into reasoning and recognition and then integrating the visual recognition capability of visual models into the joint reasoning process. The rationales generated by DDCoT not only improve the reasoning abilities of both large and small language models in zero-shot prompting and fine-tuning learning, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art methods but also exhibit impressive generalizability and explainability.

Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a cutting-edge technology capable of producing text, images, and various media content leveraging generative models and user prompts. Between 2022 and 2023, generative AI surged in popularity with a plethora of applications spanning from AI-powered movies to chatbots. In this paper, we delve into the potential of generative AI within the realm of the World Wide Web, specifically focusing on image generation. Web developers already harness generative AI to help crafting text and images, while Web browsers might use it in the future to locally generate images for tasks like repairing broken webpages, conserving bandwidth, and enhancing privacy. To explore this research area, we have developed WebDiffusion, a tool that allows to simulate a Web powered by stable diffusion, a popular text-to-image model, from both a client and server perspective. WebDiffusion further supports crowdsourcing of user opinions, which we use to evaluate the quality and accuracy of 409 AI-generated images sourced from 60 webpages. Our findings suggest that generative AI is already capable of producing pertinent and high-quality Web images, even without requiring Web designers to manually input prompts, just by leveraging contextual information available within the webpages. However, we acknowledge that direct in-browser image generation remains a challenge, as only highly powerful GPUs, such as the A40 and A100, can (partially) compete with classic image downloads. Nevertheless, this approach could be valuable for a subset of the images, for example when fixing broken webpages or handling highly private content.

Spatio-temporal graph learning is a fundamental problem in the Web of Things era, which enables a plethora of Web applications such as smart cities, human mobility and climate analysis. Existing approaches tackle different learning tasks independently, tailoring their models to unique task characteristics. These methods, however, fall short of modeling intrinsic uncertainties in the spatio-temporal data. Meanwhile, their specialized designs limit their universality as general spatio-temporal learning solutions. In this paper, we propose to model the learning tasks in a unified perspective, viewing them as predictions based on conditional information with shared spatio-temporal patterns. Based on this proposal, we introduce Unified Spatio-Temporal Diffusion Models (USTD) to address the tasks uniformly within the uncertainty-aware diffusion framework. USTD is holistically designed, comprising a shared spatio-temporal encoder and attention-based denoising networks that are task-specific. The shared encoder, optimized by a pre-training strategy, effectively captures conditional spatio-temporal patterns. The denoising networks, utilizing both cross- and self-attention, integrate conditional dependencies and generate predictions. Opting for forecasting and kriging as downstream tasks, we design Gated Attention (SGA) and Temporal Gated Attention (TGA) for each task, with different emphases on the spatial and temporal dimensions, respectively. By combining the advantages of deterministic encoders and probabilistic diffusion models, USTD achieves state-of-the-art performances compared to deterministic and probabilistic baselines in both tasks, while also providing valuable uncertainty estimates.