Time series methods are of fundamental importance in virtually any field of science that deals with temporally structured data. Recently, there has been a surge of deterministic transformer models with time series-specific architectural biases. In this paper, we go in a different direction by introducing tsGT, a stochastic time series model built on a general-purpose transformer architecture. We focus on using a well-known and theoretically justified rolling window backtesting and evaluation protocol. We show that tsGT outperforms the state-of-the-art models on MAD and RMSE, and surpasses its stochastic peers on QL and CRPS, on four commonly used datasets. We complement these results with a detailed analysis of tsGT's ability to model the data distribution and predict marginal quantile values.

Conceptual reasoning, the ability to reason in abstract and high-level perspectives, is key to generalization in human cognition. However, limited study has been done on large language models' capability to perform conceptual reasoning. In this work, we bridge this gap and propose a novel conceptualization framework that forces models to perform conceptual reasoning on abstract questions and generate solutions in a verifiable symbolic space. Using this framework as an analytical tool, we show that existing large language models fall short on conceptual reasoning, dropping 9% to 28% on various benchmarks compared to direct inference methods. We then discuss how models can improve since high-level abstract reasoning is key to unbiased and generalizable decision-making. We propose two techniques to add trustworthy induction signals by generating familiar questions with similar underlying reasoning paths and asking models to perform self-refinement. Experiments show that our proposed techniques improve models' conceptual reasoning performance by 8% to 11%, achieving a more robust reasoning system that relies less on inductive biases.

Mobile apps have embraced user privacy by moving their data processing to the user's smartphone. Advanced machine learning (ML) models, such as vision models, can now locally analyze user images to extract insights that drive several functionalities. Capitalizing on this new processing model of locally analyzing user images, we analyze two popular social media apps, TikTok and Instagram, to reveal (1) what insights vision models in both apps infer about users from their image and video data and (2) whether these models exhibit performance disparities with respect to demographics. As vision models provide signals for sensitive technologies like age verification and facial recognition, understanding potential biases in these models is crucial for ensuring that users receive equitable and accurate services. We develop a novel method for capturing and evaluating ML tasks in mobile apps, overcoming challenges like code obfuscation, native code execution, and scalability. Our method comprises ML task detection, ML pipeline reconstruction, and ML performance assessment, specifically focusing on demographic disparities. We apply our methodology to TikTok and Instagram, revealing significant insights. For TikTok, we find issues in age and gender prediction accuracy, particularly for minors and Black individuals. In Instagram, our analysis uncovers demographic disparities in the extraction of over 500 visual concepts from images, with evidence of spurious correlations between demographic features and certain concepts.

Late last year, UrgentSeas received an anonymous tip from a former employee at the Miami Seaquarium about animal tanks away from public view. The advocacy group went to investigate. In November, they posted a short clip of what they found by flying a drone over the property: an elderly manatee living alone in a decaying private pool. Within a month, the clip had been watched millions of times and the outcry had grown so intense that the US Fish and Wildlife Service moved the manatee, Romeo, and his mate, Juliet, to a sanctuary. Over the past decade, drones have become irreplaceable tools in activist and conservation circles.

Deep learning techniques have been explored within the marine litter problem for approximately 20 years but the majority of the research has developed rapidly in the last five years. We provide an in-depth, up to date, summary and analysis of 28 of the most recent and significant contributions of deep learning in marine debris. From cross referencing the research paper results, the YOLO family significantly outperforms all other methods of object detection but there are many respected contributions to this field that have categorically agreed that a comprehensive database of underwater debris is not currently available for machine learning. Using a small dataset curated and labelled by us, we tested YOLOv5 on a binary classification task and found the accuracy was low and the rate of false positives was high; highlighting the importance of a comprehensive database. We conclude this survey with over 40 future research recommendations and open challenges.

Class-incremental learning deals with sequential data streams composed of batches of classes. Various algorithms have been proposed to address the challenging case where samples from past classes cannot be stored. However, selecting an appropriate algorithm for a user-defined setting is an open problem, as the relative performance of these algorithms depends on the incremental settings. To solve this problem, we introduce an algorithm recommendation method that simulates the future data stream. Given an initial set of classes, it leverages generative models to simulate future classes from the same visual domain. We evaluate recent algorithms on the simulated stream and recommend the one which performs best in the user-defined incremental setting. We illustrate the effectiveness of our method on three large datasets using six algorithms and six incremental settings. Our method outperforms competitive baselines, and performance is close to that of an oracle choosing the best algorithm in each setting. This work contributes to facilitate the practical deployment of incremental learning.

This scientific report presents a novel methodology for the early prediction of important political events using News datasets. The methodology leverages natural language processing, graph theory, clique analysis, and semantic relationships to uncover hidden predictive signals within the data. Initially, we designed a preliminary version of the method and tested it on a few events. This analysis revealed limitations in the initial research phase. We then enhanced the model in two key ways: first, we added a filtration step to only consider politically relevant news before further processing; second, we adjusted the input features to make the alert system more sensitive to significant spikes in the data. After finalizing the improved methodology, we tested it on eleven events including US protests, the Ukraine war, and French protests. Results demonstrate the superiority of our approach compared to baseline methods. Through targeted refinements, our model can now provide earlier and more accurate predictions of major political events based on subtle patterns in news data.

The case of the Zodiac Killer is one of the most widely known unsolved serial killer cases in history. The unidentified killer murdered five known victims and terrorized the state of California. He also communicated extensively with the press and law enforcement. Besides his murders, Zodiac was known for his use of ciphers. The first Zodiac cipher was solved within a week of its publication, while the second cipher was solved by the authors after 51 years, when it was discovered to be a transposition and homophonic substitution cipher with unusual qualities. In this paper, we detail the historical significance of this cipher and the numerous efforts which culminated in its solution.

Exploring the application of deep learning technologies in the field of medical diagnostics, Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) provides a unique perspective for observing and diagnosing complex neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer Disease (AD). With advancements in deep learning, particularly in Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and the Xception network architecture, we are now able to analyze and classify vast amounts of MRI data with unprecedented accuracy. The progress of this technology not only enhances our understanding of brain structural changes but also opens up new avenues for monitoring disease progression through non-invasive means and potentially allows for precise diagnosis in the early stages of the disease. This study aims to classify MRI images using deep learning models to identify different stages of Alzheimer Disease through a series of innovative data processing and model construction steps. Our experimental results show that the deep learning framework based on the Xception model achieved a 99.6% accuracy rate in the multi-class MRI image classification task, demonstrating its potential application value in assistive diagnosis. Future research will focus on expanding the dataset, improving model interpretability, and clinical validation to further promote the application of deep learning technology in the medical field, with the hope of bringing earlier diagnosis and more personalized treatment plans to Alzheimer Disease patients.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) is a prevalent approach to infuse a private knowledge base of documents with Large Language Models (LLM) to build Generative Q\&A (Question-Answering) systems. However, RAG accuracy becomes increasingly challenging as the corpus of documents scales up, with Retrievers playing an outsized role in the overall RAG accuracy by extracting the most relevant document from the corpus to provide context to the LLM. In this paper, we propose the 'Blended RAG' method of leveraging semantic search techniques, such as Dense Vector indexes and Sparse Encoder indexes, blended with hybrid query strategies. Our study achieves better retrieval results and sets new benchmarks for IR (Information Retrieval) datasets like NQ and TREC-COVID datasets. We further extend such a 'Blended Retriever' to the RAG system to demonstrate far superior results on Generative Q\&A datasets like SQUAD, even surpassing fine-tuning performance.