Aligning large language models (LLMs) with human expectations requires high-quality instructional dialogues, which can be achieved by raising diverse, in-depth, and insightful instructions that deepen interactions. Existing methods target instructions from real instruction dialogues as a learning goal and fine-tune a user simulator for posing instructions. However, the user simulator struggles to implicitly model complex dialogue flows and pose high-quality instructions. In this paper, we take inspiration from the cognitive abilities inherent in human learning and propose the explicit modeling of complex dialogue flows through instructional strategy reuse. Specifically, we first induce high-level strategies from various real instruction dialogues. These strategies are applied to new dialogue scenarios deductively, where the instructional strategies facilitate high-quality instructions. Experimental results show that our method can generate diverse, in-depth, and insightful instructions for a given dialogue history. The constructed multi-turn instructional dialogues can outperform competitive baselines on the downstream chat model.

Transformer-based methods have made significant progress in time series forecasting (TSF). They primarily handle two types of tokens, i.e., temporal tokens that contain all variables of the same timestamp, and variable tokens that contain all input time points for a specific variable. Transformer-based methods rely on positional encoding (PE) to mark tokens' positions, facilitating the model to perceive the correlation between tokens. However, in TSF, research on PE remains insufficient. To address this gap, we conduct experiments and uncover intriguing properties of existing PEs in TSF: (i) The positional information injected by PEs diminishes as the network depth increases; (ii) Enhancing positional information in deep networks is advantageous for improving the model's performance; (iii) PE based on the similarity between tokens can improve the model's performance. Motivated by these findings, we introduce two new PEs: Temporal Position Encoding (T-PE) for temporal tokens and Variable Positional Encoding (V-PE) for variable tokens. Both T-PE and V-PE incorporate geometric PE based on tokens' positions and semantic PE based on the similarity between tokens but using different calculations. To leverage both the PEs, we design a Transformer-based dual-branch framework named T2B-PE. It first calculates temporal tokens' correlation and variable tokens' correlation respectively and then fuses the dual-branch features through the gated unit. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior robustness and effectiveness of T2B-PE. The code is available at: \href{https://github.com/jlu-phyComputer/T2B-PE}{https://github.com/jlu-phyComputer/T2B-PE}.

Fox News chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin reports that the U.S. military has shot down'dozens' of ballistic and cruise missiles as well as attack drones. The Philippine president said Monday his administration has no plan to give the U.S. military access to more Philippine army camps and stressed that the American military presence was sparked by China's aggressive actions in the disputed South China Sea. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who took office in 2022, allowed American forces and weapons access to four additional Philippine military bases, bringing to nine the number of camps where U.S. troops can rotate indefinitely under a 2014 agreement. The Biden administration has been strengthening an arc of security alliances in the region to better counter China, a move that dovetails with Philippine efforts to shore up its external defense, especially in the South China Sea. Marcos' decision last year alarmed China because two of the new sites were located just across from Taiwan and southern China.

Last month, a new dating app called Volar launched in New York City, with the promise "We go on blind dates. So you don't have to." To sign up, you enter your name and phone number, then submit yourself to a brief interview with a chatbot matchmaker. When I made an account, Volar's bot asked what line of work I was in. "I'm a book critic," I replied.

Climate and weather prediction traditionally relies on complex numerical simulations of atmospheric physics. Deep learning approaches, such as transformers, have recently challenged the simulation paradigm with complex network forecasts. However, they often act as data-driven black-box models that neglect the underlying physics and lack uncertainty quantification. We address these limitations with ClimODE, a spatiotemporal continuous-time process that implements a key principle of advection from statistical mechanics, namely, weather changes due to a spatial movement of quantities over time. ClimODE models precise weather evolution with value-conserving dynamics, learning global weather transport as a neural flow, which also enables estimating the uncertainty in predictions. Our approach outperforms existing data-driven methods in global and regional forecasting with an order of magnitude smaller parameterization, establishing a new state of the art.

The proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) highlights the critical importance of conducting thorough evaluations to discern their comparative advantages, limitations, and optimal use cases. Particularly important is assessing their capacity to accurately retrieve information included in a given prompt. A model's ability to do this significantly influences how effectively it can utilize contextual details, thus impacting its practical efficacy and dependability in real-world applications. Our research analyzes the in-context recall performance of various LLMs using the needle-in-a-haystack method. In this approach, a factoid (the "needle") is embedded within a block of filler text (the "haystack"), which the model is asked to retrieve. We assess the recall performance of each model across various haystack lengths and with varying needle placements to identify performance patterns. This study demonstrates that an LLM's recall capability is not only contingent upon the prompt's content but also may be compromised by biases in its training data. Conversely, adjustments to model architecture, training strategy, or fine-tuning can improve performance. Our analysis provides insight into LLM behavior, offering direction for the development of more effective applications of LLMs.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been successfully applied to earth observation (EO) data and opened new research avenues. Despite the theoretical and practical advances of these techniques, DNNs are still considered black box tools and by default are designed to give point predictions. However, the majority of EO applications demand reliable uncertainty estimates that can support practitioners in critical decision making tasks. This work provides a theoretical and quantitative comparison of existing uncertainty quantification methods for DNNs applied to the task of wind speed estimation in satellite imagery of tropical cyclones. We provide a detailed evaluation of predictive uncertainty estimates from state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for DNNs. We find that predictive uncertainties can be utilized to further improve accuracy and analyze the predictive uncertainties of different methods across storm categories.

There is a limitation in the literature of data-driven analyses for the ex-post evaluation of community risk and resilience, particularly using features related to the performance of coupled human-infrastructure systems. To address this gap, in this study we created a machine learning-based method for the ex-post assessment of community risk and resilience and their interplay based on features related to the coupled human-infrastructure systems performance. Utilizing feature groups related to population protective actions, infrastructure/building performance features, and recovery features, we examined the risk and resilience performance of communities in the context of the 2017 Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. These features related to the coupled human-infrastructure systems performance were processed using the K-means clustering method to classify census block groups into four distinct clusters then, based on feature analysis, these clusters were labeled and designated into four quadrants of risk-resilience archetypes. Finally, we analyzed the disparities in risk-resilience status of spatial areas across different clusters as well as different income groups. The findings unveil the risk-resilience status of spatial areas shaped by their coupled human-infrastructure systems performance and their interactions. The results also inform about features that contribute to high resilience in high-risk areas. For example, the results indicate that in high-risk areas, evacuation rates contributed to a greater resilience, while in low-risk areas, preparedness contributed to greater resilience.

Given the destructive impacts of tropical cyclones, it is critical to have a reliable system for cyclone intensity detection. Various techniques are available for this purpose, each with differing levels of accuracy. In this paper, we introduce two ensemble-based models based on AlexNet architecture to estimate tropical cyclone intensity using visible satellite images. The first model, trained on the entire dataset, is called the global AlexNet model. The second model is a distributed version of AlexNet in which multiple AlexNets are trained separately on subsets of the training data categorized according to the Saffir-Simpson wind speed scale prescribed by the meterologists. We evaluated the performance of both models against a deep learning benchmark model called \textit{Deepti} using a publicly available cyclone image dataset. Results indicate that both the global model (with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.03 knots) and the distributed model (with a RMSE of 9.3 knots) outperform the benchmark model (with a RMSE of 13.62 knots). We provide a thorough discussion of our solution approach, including an explanantion of the AlexNet's performance using gradient class activation maps (grad-CAM). Our proposed solution strategy allows future experimentation with various deep learning models in both single and multi-channel settings.

We present an empirical study of groundedness in long-form question answering (LFQA) by retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs). In particular, we evaluate whether every generated sentence is grounded in the retrieved documents or the model's pre-training data. Across 3 datasets and 4 model families, our findings reveal that a significant fraction of generated sentences are consistently ungrounded, even when those sentences contain correct ground-truth answers. Additionally, we examine the impacts of factors such as model size, decoding strategy, and instruction tuning on groundedness. Our results show that while larger models tend to ground their outputs more effectively, a significant portion of correct answers remains compromised by hallucinations. This study provides novel insights into the groundedness challenges in LFQA and underscores the necessity for more robust mechanisms in LLMs to mitigate the generation of ungrounded content.