We identify and analyse errors in the popular Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) benchmark. Even though MMLU is widely adopted, our analysis demonstrates numerous ground truth errors that obscure the true capabilities of LLMs. For example, we find that 57% of the analysed questions in the Virology subset contain errors. To address this issue, we introduce a comprehensive framework for identifying dataset errors using a novel error taxonomy. Then, we create MMLU-Redux, which is a subset of 3,000 manually re-annotated questions across 30 MMLU subjects. Using MMLU-Redux, we demonstrate significant discrepancies with the model performance metrics that were originally reported. Our results strongly advocate for revising MMLU's error-ridden questions to enhance its future utility and reliability as a benchmark.

Recent works have shown the benefits to LLMs from fine-tuning golden-standard Chain-of-Thought (CoT) rationales or using them as correct examples in few-shot prompting. While humans can indeed imitate correct examples, learning from our mistakes is another vital aspect of human cognition. Hence, a question naturally arises: \textit{can LLMs learn and benefit from their mistakes, especially for their reasoning? } This study investigates this problem from both the prompting and model-tuning perspectives. We begin by introducing \textsc{CoTErrorSet}, a new benchmark with 609,432 questions, each designed with both correct and error references, and demonstrating the types and reasons for making such mistakes. To explore the effectiveness of those mistakes, we design two methods: (1) \textbf{Self-rethinking} prompting guides LLMs to rethink whether they have made similar previous mistakes; and (2) \textbf{Mistake tuning} involves finetuning models in both correct and incorrect reasoning domains, rather than only tuning models to learn ground truth in traditional methodology. We conduct a series of experiments to prove LLMs can obtain benefits from mistakes in both directions. Our two methods offer potentially cost-effective strategies by leveraging errors to enhance reasoning capabilities, which costs significantly less than creating meticulously hand-crafted golden references. We ultimately make a thorough analysis of the reasons behind LLMs' errors, which provides directions that future research needs to overcome. \textsc{CoTErrorSet} will be published soon on \texttt{\url{https://github.com/YookiTong/Learn-from-Mistakes-CotErrorSet}}.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) is an effective solution to supplement necessary knowledge to large language models (LLMs). Targeting its bottleneck of retriever performance, "generate-then-read" pipeline is proposed to replace the retrieval stage with generation from the LLM itself. Although promising, this research direction is underexplored and still cannot work in the scenario when source knowledge is given. In this paper, we formalize a general "A + B" framework with varying combinations of foundation models and types for systematic investigation. We explore the efficacy of the base and chat versions of LLMs and found their different functionalities suitable for generator A and reader B, respectively. Their combinations consistently outperform single models, especially in complex scenarios. Furthermore, we extend the application of the "A + B" framework to scenarios involving source documents through continuous learning, enabling the direct integration of external knowledge into LLMs. This approach not only facilitates effective acquisition of new knowledge but also addresses the challenges of safety and helpfulness post-adaptation. The paper underscores the versatility of the "A + B" framework, demonstrating its potential to enhance the practical application of LLMs across various domains.

We introduce NATURAL PLAN, a realistic planning benchmark in natural language containing 3 key tasks: Trip Planning, Meeting Planning, and Calendar Scheduling. We focus our evaluation on the planning capabilities of LLMs with full information on the task, by providing outputs from tools such as Google Flights, Google Maps, and Google Calendar as contexts to the models. This eliminates the need for a tool-use environment for evaluating LLMs on Planning. We observe that NATURAL PLAN is a challenging benchmark for state of the art models. For example, in Trip Planning, GPT-4 and Gemini 1.5 Pro could only achieve 31.1% and 34.8% solve rate respectively. We find that model performance drops drastically as the complexity of the problem increases: all models perform below 5% when there are 10 cities, highlighting a significant gap in planning in natural language for SoTA LLMs. We also conduct extensive ablation studies on NATURAL PLAN to further shed light on the (in)effectiveness of approaches such as self-correction, few-shot generalization, and in-context planning with long-contexts on improving LLM planning.

Post-training quantization (PTQ) has emerged as a promising technique to reduce the cost of large language models (LLMs). Specifically, PTQ can effectively mitigate memory consumption and reduce computational overhead in LLMs. To meet the requirements of both high efficiency and performance across diverse scenarios, a comprehensive evaluation of quantized LLMs is essential to guide the selection of quantization methods. This paper presents a thorough evaluation of these factors by evaluating the effect of PTQ on Weight, Activation, and KV Cache on 11 model families, including OPT, LLaMA2, Falcon, Bloomz, Mistral, ChatGLM, Vicuna, LongChat, StableLM, Gemma, and Mamba, with parameters ranging from 125M to 180B. The evaluation encompasses five types of tasks: basic NLP, emergent ability, trustworthiness, dialogue, and long-context tasks. Moreover, we also evaluate the state-of-the-art (SOTA) quantization methods to demonstrate their applicability. Based on the extensive experiments, we systematically summarize the effect of quantization, provide recommendations to apply quantization techniques, and point out future directions. The code can be found in https://github.com/thu-nics/qllm-eval.

Most approaches for assessing causality in complex dynamical systems fail when the interactions between variables are inherently non-linear and non-stationary. Here we introduce Temporal Autoencoders for Causal Inference (TACI), a methodology that combines a new surrogate data metric for assessing causal interactions with a novel two-headed machine learning architecture to identify and measure the direction and strength of time-varying causal interactions. Through tests on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrate TACI's ability to accurately quantify dynamic causal interactions across a variety of systems. Our findings display the method's effectiveness compared to existing approaches and also highlight our approach's potential to build a deeper understanding of the mechanisms that underlie time-varying interactions in physical and biological systems.

Trend filtering simplifies complex time series data by applying smoothness to filter out noise while emphasizing proximity to the original data. However, existing trend filtering methods fail to reflect abrupt changes in the trend due to `approximateness,' resulting in constant smoothness. This approximateness uniformly filters out the tail distribution of time series data, characterized by extreme values, including both abrupt changes and noise. In this paper, we propose Trend Point Detection formulated as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), a novel approach to identifying essential points that should be reflected in the trend, departing from approximations. We term these essential points as Dynamic Trend Points (DTPs) and extract trends by interpolating them. To identify DTPs, we utilize Reinforcement Learning (RL) within a discrete action space and a forecasting sum-of-squares loss function as a reward, referred to as the Dynamic Trend Filtering network (DTF-net). DTF-net integrates flexible noise filtering, preserving critical original subsequences while removing noise as required for other subsequences. We demonstrate that DTF-net excels at capturing abrupt changes compared to other trend filtering algorithms and enhances forecasting performance, as abrupt changes are predicted rather than smoothed out.

For Large Language Models (LLMs) to be effectively deployed in a specific country, they must possess an understanding of the nation's culture and basic knowledge. To this end, we introduce National Alignment, which measures an alignment between an LLM and a targeted country from two aspects: social value alignment and common knowledge alignment. Social value alignment evaluates how well the model understands nation-specific social values, while common knowledge alignment examines how well the model captures basic knowledge related to the nation. We constructed KorNAT, the first benchmark that measures national alignment with South Korea. For the social value dataset, we obtained ground truth labels from a large-scale survey involving 6,174 unique Korean participants. For the common knowledge dataset, we constructed samples based on Korean textbooks and GED reference materials. KorNAT contains 4K and 6K multiple-choice questions for social value and common knowledge, respectively. Our dataset creation process is meticulously designed and based on statistical sampling theory and was refined through multiple rounds of human review. The experiment results of seven LLMs reveal that only a few models met our reference score, indicating a potential for further enhancement. KorNAT has received government approval after passing an assessment conducted by a government-affiliated organization dedicated to evaluating dataset quality. Samples and detailed evaluation protocols of our dataset can be found in https://huggingface.co/datasets/jiyounglee0523/KorNAT .

Accurate determination of the geothermal gradient is critical for assessing the geothermal energy potential of a given region. Of particular interest is the case of Colombia, a country with abundant geothermal resources. A history of active oil and gas exploration and production has left drilled boreholes in different geological settings, providing direct measurements of the geothermal gradient. Unfortunately, large regions of the country where geothermal resources might exist lack such measurements. Indirect geophysical measurements are costly and difficult to perform at regional scales. Computational thermal models could be constructed, but they require very detailed knowledge of the underlying geology and uniform sampling of subsurface temperatures to be well-constrained. We present an alternative approach that leverages recent advances in supervised machine learning and available direct measurements to predict the geothermal gradient in regions where only global-scale geophysical datasets and course geological knowledge are available. We find that a Gradient Boosted Regression Tree algorithm yields optimal predictions and extensively validate the trained model. We show that predictions of our model are within 12% accuracy and that independent measurements performed by other authors agree well with our model. Finnally, we present a geothermal gradient map for Colombia that highlights regions where futher exploration and data collection should be performed.

Recent innovations in diffusion probabilistic models have paved the way for significant progress in image, text and audio generation, leading to their applications in generative time series forecasting. However, leveraging such abilities to model highly stochastic time series data remains a challenge. In this paper, we propose a novel Stochastic Diffusion (StochDiff) model which learns data-driven prior knowledge at each time step by utilizing the representational power of the stochastic latent spaces to model the variability of the multivariate time series data. The learnt prior knowledge helps the model to capture complex temporal dynamics and the inherent uncertainty of the data. This improves its ability to model highly stochastic time series data. Through extensive experiments on real-world datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model on stochastic time series forecasting. Additionally, we showcase an application of our model for real-world surgical guidance, highlighting its potential to benefit the medical community.