For Large Language Models (LLMs) to be effectively deployed in a specific country, they must possess an understanding of the nation's culture and basic knowledge. To this end, we introduce National Alignment, which measures an alignment between an LLM and a targeted country from two aspects: social value alignment and common knowledge alignment. Social value alignment evaluates how well the model understands nation-specific social values, while common knowledge alignment examines how well the model captures basic knowledge related to the nation. We constructed KorNAT, the first benchmark that measures national alignment with South Korea. For the social value dataset, we obtained ground truth labels from a large-scale survey involving 6,174 unique Korean participants. For the common knowledge dataset, we constructed samples based on Korean textbooks and GED reference materials. KorNAT contains 4K and 6K multiple-choice questions for social value and common knowledge, respectively. Our dataset creation process is meticulously designed and based on statistical sampling theory and was refined through multiple rounds of human review. The experiment results of seven LLMs reveal that only a few models met our reference score, indicating a potential for further enhancement. KorNAT has received government approval after passing an assessment conducted by a government-affiliated organization dedicated to evaluating dataset quality. Samples and detailed evaluation protocols of our dataset can be found in https://huggingface.co/datasets/jiyounglee0523/KorNAT .

Accurate determination of the geothermal gradient is critical for assessing the geothermal energy potential of a given region. Of particular interest is the case of Colombia, a country with abundant geothermal resources. A history of active oil and gas exploration and production has left drilled boreholes in different geological settings, providing direct measurements of the geothermal gradient. Unfortunately, large regions of the country where geothermal resources might exist lack such measurements. Indirect geophysical measurements are costly and difficult to perform at regional scales. Computational thermal models could be constructed, but they require very detailed knowledge of the underlying geology and uniform sampling of subsurface temperatures to be well-constrained. We present an alternative approach that leverages recent advances in supervised machine learning and available direct measurements to predict the geothermal gradient in regions where only global-scale geophysical datasets and course geological knowledge are available. We find that a Gradient Boosted Regression Tree algorithm yields optimal predictions and extensively validate the trained model. We show that predictions of our model are within 12% accuracy and that independent measurements performed by other authors agree well with our model. Finnally, we present a geothermal gradient map for Colombia that highlights regions where futher exploration and data collection should be performed.

Recent innovations in diffusion probabilistic models have paved the way for significant progress in image, text and audio generation, leading to their applications in generative time series forecasting. However, leveraging such abilities to model highly stochastic time series data remains a challenge. In this paper, we propose a novel Stochastic Diffusion (StochDiff) model which learns data-driven prior knowledge at each time step by utilizing the representational power of the stochastic latent spaces to model the variability of the multivariate time series data. The learnt prior knowledge helps the model to capture complex temporal dynamics and the inherent uncertainty of the data. This improves its ability to model highly stochastic time series data. Through extensive experiments on real-world datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model on stochastic time series forecasting. Additionally, we showcase an application of our model for real-world surgical guidance, highlighting its potential to benefit the medical community.

Time series data in real-world scenarios contain a substantial amount of nonlinear information, which significantly interferes with the training process of models, leading to decreased prediction performance. Therefore, during the time series forecasting process, extracting the local and global time series patterns and understanding the potential nonlinear features among different time observations are highly significant. To address this challenge, we introduce multi-resolution convolution and deformable convolution operations. By enlarging the receptive field using convolution kernels with different dilation factors to capture temporal correlation information at different resolutions, and adaptively adjusting the sampling positions through additional offset vectors, we enhance the network's ability to capture potential nonlinear features among time observations. Building upon this, we propose ACNet, an adaptive convolutional network designed to effectively model the local and global temporal dependencies and the nonlinear features between observations in multivariate time series. Specifically, by extracting and fusing time series features at different resolutions, we capture both local contextual information and global patterns in the time series. The designed nonlinear feature adaptive extraction module captures the nonlinear features among different time observations in the time series. We evaluated the performance of ACNet across twelve real-world datasets. The results indicate that ACNet consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting tasks with favorable runtime efficiency.

To some, the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) promises better decision-making and increased military effectiveness while reducing the influence of human error and emotions. However, there is still debate about how AI systems, especially large language models (LLMs), behave compared to humans in high-stakes military decision-making scenarios with the potential for increased risks towards escalation and unnecessary conflicts. To test this potential and scrutinize the use of LLMs for such purposes, we use a new wargame experiment with 107 national security experts designed to look at crisis escalation in a fictional US-China scenario and compare human players to LLM-simulated responses in separate simulations. Wargames have a long history in the development of military strategy and the response of nations to threats or attacks. Here, we show a considerable high-level agreement in the LLM and human responses and significant quantitative and qualitative differences in individual actions and strategic tendencies. These differences depend on intrinsic biases in LLMs regarding the appropriate level of violence following strategic instructions, the choice of LLM, and whether the LLMs are tasked to decide for a team of players directly or first to simulate dialog between players. When simulating the dialog, the discussions lack quality and maintain a farcical harmony. The LLM simulations cannot account for human player characteristics, showing no significant difference even for extreme traits, such as "pacifist" or "aggressive sociopath". Our results motivate policymakers to be cautious before granting autonomy or following AI-based strategy recommendations.

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has ushered in an era where AI-generated text is increasingly indistinguishable from human-generated content. Detecting AI-generated text has become imperative to combat misinformation, ensure content authenticity, and safeguard against malicious uses of AI. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid approach that combines traditional TF-IDF techniques with advanced machine learning models, including Bayesian classifiers, Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), Categorical Gradient Boosting (CatBoost), and 12 instances of Deberta-v3-large models. Our approach aims to address the challenges associated with detecting AI-generated text by leveraging the strengths of both traditional feature extraction methods and state-of-the-art deep learning models. Through extensive experiments on a comprehensive dataset, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in accurately distinguishing between human and AI-generated text. Our approach achieves superior performance compared to existing methods. This research contributes to the advancement of AI-generated text detection techniques and lays the foundation for developing robust solutions to mitigate the challenges posed by AI-generated content.

OpenAI, the developer of artificial intelligence chatbot ChatGPT, released a report on Thursday saying that a group based in China had used its technology for social media posts and other activities to attempt to influence public opinion on treated water released from the crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant. "A few articles generated in late 2023 in English, Japanese, Chinese, Korean and Russian accused Japan of polluting Pacific waters with the discharge from the Fukushima nuclear plant -- a long-running theme of Chinese IO (influence operations)," it said. China and Japan have been at odds over the discharge of treated water from the plant into the Pacific Ocean that began last August, with Beijing imposing a ban on seafood imports from Japan following multiple releases of the water.

When bizarre and misleading answers to search queries generated by Google's new AI Overview feature went viral on social media last week, the company issued statements that generally downplayed the notion the technology had problems. Late Thursday, the company's head of search Liz Reid admitted the flubs had highlighted areas that needed improvement, writing that "we wanted to explain what happened and the steps we've taken." One saw Google's algorithms endorse eating rocks because doing so "can be good for you," and the other suggested using nontoxic glue to thicken pizza sauce. Rock eating is not a topic many people were ever writing or asking questions about online, so there aren't many sources for a search engine to draw on. According to Reid, the AI tool found an article from The Onion, a satirical website, that had been reposted by a software company, and misinterpreted the information as factual. As for Google telling its users to put glue on pizza, Reid effectively attributed the error to a sense of humor failure.

The recent embrace of machine learning (ML) in the development of autonomous weapons systems (AWS) creates serious risks to geopolitical stability and the free exchange of ideas in AI research. This topic has received comparatively little attention of late compared to risks stemming from superintelligent artificial general intelligence (AGI), but requires fewer assumptions about the course of technological development and is thus a nearer-future issue. ML is already enabling the substitution of AWS for human soldiers in many battlefield roles, reducing the upfront human cost, and thus political cost, of waging offensive war. In the case of peer adversaries, this increases the likelihood of "low intensity" conflicts which risk escalation to broader warfare. In the case of non-peer adversaries, it reduces the domestic blowback to wars of aggression. This effect can occur regardless of other ethical issues around the use of military AI such as the risk of civilian casualties, and does not require any superhuman AI capabilities. Further, the military value of AWS raises the specter of an AI-powered arms race and the misguided imposition of national security restrictions on AI research. Our goal in this paper is to raise awareness among the public and ML researchers on the near-future risks posed by full or near-full autonomy in military technology, and we provide regulatory suggestions to mitigate these risks. We call upon AI policy experts and the defense AI community in particular to embrace transparency and caution in their development and deployment of AWS to avoid the negative effects on global stability and AI research that we highlight here.

The rapid advancement of neural language models has sparked a new surge of intelligent agent research. Unlike traditional agents, large language model-based agents (LLM agents) have emerged as a promising paradigm for achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI) due to their superior reasoning and generalization capabilities. Effective planning is crucial for the success of LLM agents in real-world tasks, making it a highly pursued topic in the community. Current planning methods typically translate tasks into executable action sequences. However, determining a feasible or optimal sequence for complex tasks at fine granularity, which often requires compositing long chains of heterogeneous actions, remains challenging. This paper introduces Meta-Task Planning (MTP), a zero-shot methodology for collaborative LLM-based multi-agent systems that simplifies complex task planning by decomposing it into a hierarchy of subordinate tasks, or meta-tasks. Each meta-task is then mapped into executable actions. MTP was assessed on two rigorous benchmarks, TravelPlanner and API-Bank. Notably, MTP achieved an average $\sim40\%$ success rate on TravelPlanner, significantly higher than the state-of-the-art (SOTA) baseline ($2.92\%$), and outperforming $LLM_{api}$-4 with ReAct on API-Bank by $\sim14\%$, showing the immense potential of integrating LLM with multi-agent systems.