Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in executing tasks based on natural language queries. However, these models, trained on curated datasets, inherently embody biases ranging from racial to national and gender biases. It remains uncertain whether these biases impact the performance of LLMs for certain tasks. In this study, we investigate the political biases of LLMs within the stance classification task, specifically examining whether these models exhibit a tendency to more accurately classify politically-charged stances. Utilizing three datasets, seven LLMs, and four distinct prompting schemes, we analyze the performance of LLMs on politically oriented statements and targets. Our findings reveal a statistically significant difference in the performance of LLMs across various politically oriented stance classification tasks. Furthermore, we observe that this difference primarily manifests at the dataset level, with models and prompting schemes showing statistically similar performances across different stance classification datasets. Lastly, we observe that when there is greater ambiguity in the target the statement is directed towards, LLMs have poorer stance classification accuracy. Code & Dataset: http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12938478

It is challenging to scale time series forecasting models such that they forecast accurately for multiple distinct domains and datasets, all with potentially different underlying collection procedures (e.g., sample resolution), patterns (e.g., periodicity), and prediction requirements (e.g., reconstruction vs. forecasting). We call this general task universal forecasting. Existing methods usually assume that input data is regularly sampled, and they forecast to pre-determined horizons, resulting in failure to generalise outside of the scope of their training. We propose the DAM - a neural model that takes randomly sampled histories and outputs an adjustable basis composition as a continuous function of time for forecasting to non-fixed horizons. It involves three key components: (1) a flexible approach for using randomly sampled histories from a long-tail distribution, that enables an efficient global perspective of the underlying temporal dynamics while retaining focus on the recent history; (2) a transformer backbone that is trained on these actively sampled histories to produce, as representational output, (3) the basis coefficients of a continuous function of time. We show that a single univariate DAM, trained on 25 time series datasets, either outperformed or closely matched existing SoTA models at multivariate long-term forecasting across 18 datasets, including 8 held-out for zero-shot transfer, even though these models were trained to specialise for each dataset-horizon combination. This single DAM excels at zero-shot transfer and very-long-term forecasting, performs well at imputation, is interpretable via basis function composition and attention, can be tuned for different inference-cost requirements, is robust to missing and irregularly sampled data {by design}.

In the field of machine learning and artificial intelligence, time series forecasting plays a pivotal role across various domains such as finance, healthcare, and weather. However, the task of selecting the most suitable forecasting method for a given dataset is a complex task due to the diversity of data patterns and characteristics. This research aims to address this challenge by proposing a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating and ranking time series forecasting methods across a wide range of datasets. This study investigates the comparative performance of many methods from two prominent time series forecasting frameworks, AutoGluon-Timeseries, and sktime to shed light on their applicability in different real-world scenarios. This research contributes to the field of time series forecasting by providing a robust benchmarking methodology, and facilitating informed decision-making when choosing forecasting methods for achieving optimal prediction.

As the world turned digital, people were quick to drop their Sunday papers and pick up their smartphones for news. Advertisers followed suit as digital platforms became more valuable real estate than print newspapers, leaving California news outlets desperate to find ways to stay profitable and relevant. News outlets must spend at least 70% of the received funds on their staff. A second bill being considered by California lawmakers, Senate Bill 1327, would charge Amazon, Meta and Google a "data extraction mitigation fee" for data they collect from users. The funds would go toward supporting local newsrooms.

This paper comprehensively reviews recent advances in underwater acoustic signal denoising, an area critical for improving the reliability and clarity of underwater communication and monitoring systems. Despite significant progress in the field, the complex nature of underwater environments poses unique challenges that complicate the denoising process. We begin by outlining the fundamental challenges associated with underwater acoustic signal processing, including signal attenuation, noise variability, and the impact of environmental factors. The review then systematically categorizes and discusses various denoising algorithms, such as conventional, decomposition-based, and learning-based techniques, highlighting their applications, advantages, and limitations. Evaluation metrics and experimental datasets are also reviewed. The paper concludes with a list of open questions and recommendations for future research directions, emphasizing the need for developing more robust denoising techniques that can adapt to the dynamic underwater acoustic environment.

Constructing assurance cases is a widely used, and sometimes required, process toward demonstrating that safety-critical systems will operate safely in their planned environment. To mitigate the risk of errors and missing edge cases, the concept of defeaters - arguments or evidence that challenge claims in an assurance case - has been introduced. Defeaters can provide timely detection of weaknesses in the arguments, prompting further investigation and timely mitigations. However, capturing defeaters relies on expert judgment, experience, and creativity and must be done iteratively due to evolving requirements and regulations. This paper proposes CoDefeater, an automated process to leverage large language models (LLMs) for finding defeaters. Initial results on two systems show that LLMs can efficiently find known and unforeseen feasible defeaters to support safety analysts in enhancing the completeness and confidence of assurance cases.

The language used by US courtroom actors in criminal trials has long been studied for biases. However, systematic studies for bias in high-stakes court trials have been difficult, due to the nuanced nature of bias and the legal expertise required. New large language models offer the possibility to automate annotation, saving time and cost. But validating these approaches requires both high quantitative performance as well as an understanding of how automated methods fit in existing workflows, and what they really offer. In this paper we present a case study of adding an automated system to a complex and high-stakes problem: identifying gender-biased language in US capital trials for women defendants. Our team of experienced death-penalty lawyers and NLP technologists pursued a three-phase study: first annotating manually, then training and evaluating computational models, and finally comparing human annotations to model predictions. Unlike many typical NLP tasks, annotating for gender bias in months-long capital trials was a complicated task that involves with many individual judgment calls. In contrast to standard arguments for automation that are based on efficiency and scalability, legal experts found the computational models most useful in challenging their personal bias in annotation and providing opportunities to refine and build consensus on rules for annotation. This suggests that seeking to replace experts with computational models is both unrealistic and undesirable. Rather, computational models offer valuable opportunities to assist the legal experts in annotation-based studies.

Existing deep learning-based surrogate models facilitate efficient data generation, but fall short in uncertainty quantification, efficient parameter space exploration, and reverse prediction. In our work, we introduce SurroFlow, a novel normalizing flow-based surrogate model, to learn the invertible transformation between simulation parameters and simulation outputs. The model not only allows accurate predictions of simulation outcomes for a given simulation parameter but also supports uncertainty quantification in the data generation process. Additionally, it enables efficient simulation parameter recommendation and exploration. We integrate SurroFlow and a genetic algorithm as the backend of a visual interface to support effective user-guided ensemble simulation exploration and visualization. Our framework significantly reduces the computational costs while enhancing the reliability and exploration capabilities of scientific surrogate models.

Big mobility datasets (BMD) have shown many advantages in studying human mobility and evaluating the performance of transportation systems. However, the quality of BMD remains poorly understood. This study evaluates biases in BMD and develops mitigation methods. Using Google and Apple mobility data as examples, this study compares them with benchmark data from governmental agencies. Spatio-temporal discrepancies between BMD and benchmark are observed and their impacts on transportation applications are investigated, emphasizing the urgent need to address these biases to prevent misguided policymaking. This study further proposes and tests a bias mitigation method. It is shown that the mitigated BMD could generate valuable insights into large-scale public transit systems across 100+ US counties, revealing regional disparities of the recovery of transit systems from the COVID-19. This study underscores the importance of caution when using BMD in transportation research and presents effective mitigation strategies that would benefit practitioners.

The widespread use of social media has led to a surge in popularity for automated methods of analyzing public opinion. Supervised methods are adept at text categorization, yet the dynamic nature of social media discussions poses a continual challenge for these techniques due to the constant shifting of the focus. On the other hand, traditional unsupervised methods for extracting themes from public discourse, such as topic modeling, often reveal overarching patterns that might not capture specific nuances. Consequently, a significant portion of research into social media discourse still depends on labor-intensive manual coding techniques and a human-in-the-loop approach, which are both time-consuming and costly. In this work, we study the problem of discovering arguments associated with a specific theme. We propose a generic LLMs-in-the-Loop strategy that leverages the advanced capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) to extract latent arguments from social media messaging. To demonstrate our approach, we apply our framework to contentious topics. We use two publicly available datasets: (1) the climate campaigns dataset of 14k Facebook ads with 25 themes and (2) the COVID-19 vaccine campaigns dataset of 9k Facebook ads with 14 themes. Additionally, we design a downstream task as stance prediction by leveraging talking points in climate debates. Furthermore, we analyze demographic targeting and the adaptation of messaging based on real-world events.