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Latent Space Score-based Diffusion Model for Probabilistic Multivariate Time Series Imputation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Accurate imputation is essential for the reliability and success of downstream tasks. Recently, diffusion models have attracted great attention in this field. However, these models neglect the latent distribution in a lower-dimensional space derived from the observed data, which limits the generative capacity of the diffusion model. Additionally, dealing with the original missing data without labels becomes particularly problematic. To address these issues, we propose the Latent Space Score-Based Diffusion Model (LSSDM) for probabilistic multivariate time series imputation. Observed values are projected onto low-dimensional latent space and coarse values of the missing data are reconstructed without knowing their ground truth values by this unsupervised learning approach. Finally, the reconstructed values are fed into a conditional diffusion model to obtain the precise imputed values of the time series. In this way, LSSDM not only possesses the power to identify the latent distribution but also seamlessly integrates the diffusion model to obtain the high-fidelity imputed values and assess the uncertainty of the dataset. Experimental results demonstrate that LSSDM achieves superior imputation performance while also providing a better explanation and uncertainty analysis of the imputation mechanism. The website of the code is \textit{https://github.com/gorgen2020/LSSDM\_imputation}.


An Underwater Data Center in San Francisco Bay? Regulators Say Not So Fast

WIRED

Data centers powering the generative AI boom are gulping water and exhausting electricity at what some researchers view as an unsustainable pace. Two entrepreneurs who met in high school a few years ago want to overcome that crunch with a fresh experiment: sinking the cloud into the sea. Sam Mendel and Eric Kim launched their company, NetworkOcean, out of startup accelerator Y Combinator on August 15 by announcing plans to dunk a small capsule filled with GPU servers into San Francisco Bay within a month. "There's this vital opportunity to build more efficient computer infrastructure that we're gonna rely on for decades to come," Mendel says. The founders contend that moving data centers off land would slow ocean temperature rise by drawing less power and letting seawater cool the capsule's shell, supplementing its internal cooling system.


Knowing When to Ask -- Bridging Large Language Models and Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to generating factually incorrect information when responding to queries that involve numerical and statistical data or other timely facts. In this paper, we present an approach for enhancing the accuracy of LLMs by integrating them with Data Commons, a vast, open-source repository of public statistics from trusted organizations like the United Nations (UN), Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and global census bureaus. We explore two primary methods: Retrieval Interleaved Generation (RIG), where the LLM is trained to produce natural language queries to retrieve data from Data Commons, and Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG), where relevant data tables are fetched from Data Commons and used to augment the LLM's prompt. We evaluate these methods on a diverse set of queries, demonstrating their effectiveness in improving the factual accuracy of LLM outputs. Our work represents an early step towards building more trustworthy and reliable LLMs that are grounded in verifiable statistical data and capable of complex factual reasoning.


Benchmarking Chinese Knowledge Rectification in Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit remarkable generative capabilities, they are not without flaws, particularly in the form of hallucinations. This issue is even more pronounced when LLMs are applied to specific languages and domains. For example, LLMs may generate nonsense information when handling Chinese ancient poetry, proverbs, or idioms, owing to the lack of specific knowledge. To this end, this paper introduces a benchmark for rectifying Chinese knowledge in LLMs via knowledge editing. Specifically, we introduce a new Chinese dataset, CKnowEdit, by collecting seven type of knowledge from various sources, including classical texts, idioms, and content from Baidu Tieba Ruozhiba, thereby accounting for the unique polyphony, antithesis, and logical constructs inherent in the Chinese language. Through the analysis of this dataset, we uncover the challenges faced by current LLMs in mastering Chinese. Furthermore, our evaluation of state-of-the-art knowledge editing techniques on this dataset unveil the substantial scope for advancement in the rectification of Chinese knowledge. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/zjunlp/EasyEdit.


Bottleneck-based Encoder-decoder ARchitecture (BEAR) for Learning Unbiased Consumer-to-Consumer Image Representations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Unbiased representation learning is still an object of study under specific applications and contexts. Novel architectures are usually crafted to resolve particular problems using mixtures of fundamental pieces. This paper presents different image feature extraction mechanisms that work together with residual connections to encode perceptual image information in an autoencoder configuration. We use image data that aims to support a larger research agenda dealing with issues regarding criminal activity in consumer-to-consumer online platforms. Preliminary results suggest that the proposed architecture can learn rich spaces using ours and other image datasets resolving important challenges that are identified.


STLLM-DF: A Spatial-Temporal Large Language Model with Diffusion for Enhanced Multi-Mode Traffic System Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid advancement of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) presents challenges, particularly with missing data in multi-modal transportation and the complexity of handling diverse sequential tasks within a centralized framework. To address these issues, we propose the Spatial-Temporal Large Language Model Diffusion (STLLM-DF), an innovative model that leverages Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) and Large Language Models (LLMs) to improve multi-task transportation prediction. The DDPM's robust denoising capabilities enable it to recover underlying data patterns from noisy inputs, making it particularly effective in complex transportation systems. Meanwhile, the non-pretrained LLM dynamically adapts to spatial-temporal relationships within multi-modal networks, allowing the system to efficiently manage diverse transportation tasks in both long-term and short-term predictions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that STLLM-DF consistently outperforms existing models, achieving an average reduction of 2.40\% in MAE, 4.50\% in RMSE, and 1.51\% in MAPE. This model significantly advances centralized ITS by enhancing predictive accuracy, robustness, and overall system performance across multiple tasks, thus paving the way for more effective spatio-temporal traffic forecasting through the integration of frozen transformer language models and diffusion techniques.


Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasts from Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction (AIWP) Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In just the past few years multiple data-driven Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction (AIWP) models have been developed, with new versions appearing almost monthly. Given this rapid development, the applicability of these models to operational forecasting has yet to be adequately explored and documented. To assess their utility for operational tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting, the NHC verification procedure is used to evaluate seven-day track and intensity predictions for northern hemisphere TCs from May-November 2023. Four open-source AIWP models are considered (FourCastNetv1, FourCastNetv2-small, GraphCast-operational and Pangu-Weather). The AIWP track forecast errors and detection rates are comparable to those from the best-performing operational forecast models. However, the AIWP intensity forecast errors are larger than those of even the simplest intensity forecasts based on climatology and persistence. The AIWP models almost always reduce the TC intensity, especially within the first 24 h of the forecast, resulting in a substantial low bias. The contribution of the AIWP models to the NHC model consensus was also evaluated. The consensus track errors are reduced by up to 11% at the longer time periods. The five-day NHC official track forecasts have improved by about 2% per year since 2001, so this represents more than a five-year gain in accuracy. Despite substantial negative intensity biases, the AIWP models have a neutral impact on the intensity consensus. These results show that the current formulation of the AIWP models have promise for operational TC track forecasts, but improved bias corrections or model reformulations will be needed for accurate intensity forecasts.


Enhancing coastal water body segmentation with Landsat Irish Coastal Segmentation (LICS) dataset

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ireland's coastline, a critical and dynamic resource, is facing challenges such as erosion, sedimentation, and human activities. Monitoring these changes is a complex task we approach using a combination of satellite imagery and deep learning methods. However, limited research exists in this area, particularly for Ireland. This paper presents the Landsat Irish Coastal Segmentation (LICS) dataset, which aims to facilitate the development of deep learning methods for coastal water body segmentation while addressing modelling challenges specific to Irish meteorology and coastal types. The dataset is used to evaluate various automated approaches for segmentation, with U-NET achieving the highest accuracy of 95.0% among deep learning methods. Nevertheless, the Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI) benchmark outperformed U-NET with an average accuracy of 97.2%. The study suggests that deep learning approaches can be further improved with more accurate training data and by considering alternative measurements of erosion. The LICS dataset and code are freely available to support reproducible research and further advancements in coastal monitoring efforts.


AI Is Coming for Amateur Novelists. That's Fine.

The Atlantic - Technology

With a name that sounds like something a parent would slowly mouth to their infant, NaNoWriMo is an annual "challenge" in which many thousands of seemingly well-adjusted people decide to write a novel in a month. "Do I need something special to write a novel?" the nonprofit that puts on this exquisite torture reasonably asks on its website. National Novel Writing Month began in 1999 with 21 participants, and now nearly half a million take part every November. The event is also the name of the organization that gamifies the exercise, hosting participants on its online platform. To "win" NaNoWriMo, you need to produce a minimum of 50,000 words in a month (about the length of The Great Gatsby)--or 1,667 words a day, a number, NaNoWriMo tells us, that "scientists have determined to be the perfect amount to boost your creativity."


More is More: Addition Bias in Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we investigate the presence of additive bias in Large Language Models (LLMs), drawing a parallel to the cognitive bias observed in humans where individuals tend to favor additive over subtractive changes. Using a series of controlled experiments, we tested various LLMs, including GPT-3.5 Turbo, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Mistral, Math$\Sigma$tral, and Llama 3.1, on tasks designed to measure their propensity for additive versus subtractive modifications. Our findings demonstrate a significant preference for additive changes across all tested models. For example, in a palindrome creation task, Llama 3.1 favored adding letters 97.85% of the time over removing them. Similarly, in a Lego tower balancing task, GPT-3.5 Turbo chose to add a brick 76.38% of the time rather than remove one. In a text summarization task, Mistral 7B produced longer summaries in 59.40% to 75.10% of cases when asked to improve its own or others' writing. These results indicate that, similar to humans, LLMs exhibit a marked additive bias, which might have implications when LLMs are used on a large scale. Addittive bias might increase resource use and environmental impact, leading to higher economic costs due to overconsumption and waste. This bias should be considered in the development and application of LLMs to ensure balanced and efficient problem-solving approaches.