Transformer models have consistently achieved remarkable results in various domains such as natural language processing and computer vision. However, despite ongoing research efforts to better understand these models, the field still lacks a comprehensive understanding. This is particularly true for deep time series forecasting methods, where analysis and understanding work is relatively limited. Time series data, unlike image and text information, can be more challenging to interpret and analyze. To address this, we approach the problem from a manifold learning perspective, assuming that the latent representations of time series forecasting models lie next to a low-dimensional manifold. In our study, we focus on analyzing the geometric features of these latent data manifolds, including intrinsic dimension and principal curvatures. Our findings reveal that deep transformer models exhibit similar geometric behavior across layers, and these geometric features are correlated with model performance. Additionally, we observe that untrained models initially have different structures, but they rapidly converge during training. By leveraging our geometric analysis and differentiable tools, we can potentially design new and improved deep forecasting neural networks. This approach complements existing analysis studies and contributes to a better understanding of transformer models in the context of time series forecasting. Code is released at https://github.com/azencot-group/GATLM.

Leveraging large language models (LLMs) for complex natural language tasks typically requires long-form prompts to convey detailed requirements and information, which results in increased memory usage and inference costs. To mitigate these challenges, multiple efficient methods have been proposed, with prompt compression gaining significant research interest. This survey provides an overview of prompt compression techniques, categorized into hard prompt methods and soft prompt methods. First, the technical approaches of these methods are compared, followed by an exploration of various ways to understand their mechanisms, including the perspectives of attention optimization, Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT), modality integration, and new synthetic language. We also examine the downstream adaptations of various prompt compression techniques. Finally, the limitations of current prompt compression methods are analyzed, and several future directions are outlined, such as optimizing the compression encoder, combining hard and soft prompts methods, and leveraging insights from multimodality.

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Neutrino telescopes detect rare interactions of particles produced in some of the most extreme environments in the Universe. This is accomplished by instrumenting a cubic-kilometer volume of naturally occurring transparent medium with light sensors. Given their substantial size and the high frequency of background interactions, these telescopes amass an enormous quantity of large variance, high-dimensional data. These attributes create substantial challenges for analyzing and reconstructing interactions, particularly when utilizing machine learning (ML) techniques. In this paper, we present a novel approach, called om2vec, that employs transformer-based variational autoencoders to efficiently represent neutrino telescope events by learning compact and descriptive latent representations. We demonstrate that these latent representations offer enhanced flexibility and improved computational efficiency, thereby facilitating downstream tasks in data analysis.

Recent normalization-based methods have shown great success in tackling the distribution shift issue, facilitating non-stationary time series forecasting. Since these methods operate in the time domain, they may fail to fully capture the dynamic patterns that are more apparent in the frequency domain, leading to suboptimal results. This paper first theoretically analyzes how normalization methods affect frequency components. We prove that the current normalization methods that operate in the time domain uniformly scale non-zero frequencies, and thus, they struggle to determine components that contribute to more robust forecasting. Therefore, we propose FredNormer, which observes datasets from a frequency perspective and adaptively up-weights the key frequency components. To this end, FredNormer consists of two components: a statistical metric that normalizes the input samples based on their frequency stability and a learnable weighting layer that adjusts stability and introduces sample-specific variations. Notably, FredNormer is a plug-and-play module, which does not compromise the efficiency compared to existing normalization methods. Extensive experiments show that FredNormer improves the averaged MSE of backbone forecasting models by 33.3% and 55.3% on the ETTm2 dataset. Compared to the baseline normalization methods, FredNormer achieves 18 top-1 results and 6 top-2 results out of 28 settings.

High computational power and the availability of large datasets have supported the development of Foundational Models. They are a new emerging technique widely used in Generative Artificial Intelligence, characterized by their scalability and their use in Transfer Learning. The enormous and heterogeneous amounts of data used in their initial training phase, known as pre-training, give them a higher generalization capacity than any other specific model, constituting a solid base that can be adapted or adjusted to a wide range of tasks, increasing their applicability. This study proposes LLIAM, the Llama Lora-Integrated Autorregresive Model. Low-Rank Adaptations are used to enhance the knowledge of the model with diverse time series datasets, known as the fine-tuning phase. To illustrate the capabilities of our proposal, two sets of experiments have been carried out that obtained favorable and promising results with lower training times than other Deep Learning approaches. With this work, we also encourage the use of available resources (such as these pre-trained models) to avoid unnecessary and costly training, narrowing the gap between the goals of traditional Artificial Intelligence and those specified by the definition of Green Artificial Intelligence.

Multivariate Time series forecasting is crucial in domains such as transportation, meteorology, and finance, especially for predicting extreme weather events. State-of-the-art methods predominantly rely on Transformer architectures, which utilize attention mechanisms to capture temporal dependencies. However, these methods are hindered by quadratic time complexity, limiting the model's scalability with respect to input sequence length. This significantly restricts their practicality in the real world. Mamba, based on state space models (SSM), provides a solution with linear time complexity, increasing the potential for efficient forecasting of sequential data. In this study, we propose UmambaTSF, a novel long-term time series forecasting framework that integrates multi-scale feature extraction capabilities of U-shaped encoder-decoder multilayer perceptrons (MLP) with Mamba's long sequence representation. To improve performance and efficiency, the Mamba blocks introduced in the framework adopt a refined residual structure and adaptable design, enabling the capture of unique temporal signals and flexible channel processing. In the experiments, UmambaTSF achieves state-of-the-art performance and excellent generality on widely used benchmark datasets while maintaining linear time complexity and low memory consumption.

In the real world, unmanned surface vehicles (USV) often need to coordinate with each other to accomplish specific tasks. However, achieving cooperative control in multi-agent systems is challenging due to issues such as non-stationarity and partial observability. Recent advancements in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) provide new perspectives to address these challenges. Therefore, we propose using the multi-agent deep deterministic policy gradient (MADDPG) algorithm with communication to address multiple ships' cooperation problems under partial observability. We developed two tasks based on OpenAI's gym environment: cooperative navigation and cooperative collision avoidance. In these tasks, ships must not only learn effective control strategies but also establish communication protocols with other agents. We analyze the impact of external noise on communication, the effect of inter-agent communication on performance, and the communication patterns learned by the agents. The results demonstrate that our proposed framework effectively addresses cooperative navigation and collision avoidance among multiple vessels, significantly outperforming traditional single-agent algorithms. Agents establish a consistent communication protocol, enabling them to compensate for missing information through shared observations and achieve better coordination.

Non-stationarity poses significant challenges for multivariate time series forecasting due to the inherent short-term fluctuations and long-term trends that can lead to spurious regressions or obscure essential long-term relationships. Most existing methods either eliminate or retain non-stationarity without adequately addressing its distinct impacts on short-term and long-term modeling. Eliminating non-stationarity is essential for avoiding spurious regressions and capturing local dependencies in short-term modeling, while preserving it is crucial for revealing long-term cointegration across variates. In this paper, we propose Time-Bridge, a novel framework designed to bridge the gap between non-stationarity and dependency modeling in long-term time series forecasting. By segmenting input series into smaller patches, TimeBridge applies Integrated Attention to mitigate short-term non-stationarity and capture stable dependencies within each variate, while Cointegrated Attention preserves non-stationarity to model long-term cointegration across variates. Extensive experiments show that Time-Bridge consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting. Additionally, TimeBridge demonstrates exceptional performance in financial forecasting on the CSI 500 and S&P 500 indices, further validating its robustness and effectiveness. Multivariate time series forecasting aims to predict future changes based on historical observations of time series data, which holds significant applications in fields such as financial investment (Sezer et al., 2020), weather forecasting (Karevan & Suykens, 2020), and traffic flow prediction (Shu et al., 2021). However, the inherent non-stationarity of time series (Kim et al., 2022), characterized by short-term fluctuations and long-term trends, introduces challenges such as spurious regressions, making time series forecasting a particularly complex task. For instance, RevIN (Kim et al., 2022) normalizes the input data and subsequently applies its distributional characteristics to denormalize the output predictions.

Variation of Arctic sea ice has significant impacts on polar ecosystems, transporting routes, coastal communities, and global climate. Tracing the change of sea ice at a finer scale is paramount for both operational applications and scientific studies. Recent pan-Arctic sea ice forecasting methods that leverage advances in artificial intelligence has made promising progress over numerical models. However, forecasting sea ice at higher resolutions is still under-explored. To bridge the gap, we propose a two-staged deep learning framework, IceDiff, to forecast sea ice concentration at finer scales. IceDiff first leverages an independently trained vision transformer to generate coarse yet superior forecasting over previous methods at a regular 25km x 25km grid. This high-quality sea ice forecasting can be utilized as reliable guidance for the next stage. Subsequently, an unconditional diffusion model pre-trained on sea ice concentration maps is utilized for sampling down-scaled sea ice forecasting via a zero-shot guided sampling strategy and a patch-based method. For the first time, IceDiff demonstrates sea ice forecasting with the 6.25km x 6.25km resolution. IceDiff extends the boundary of existing sea ice forecasting models and more importantly, its capability to generate high-resolution sea ice concentration data is vital for pragmatic usages and research.