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Transfer Learning with Foundational Models for Time Series Forecasting using Low-Rank Adaptations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

High computational power and the availability of large datasets have supported the development of Foundational Models. They are a new emerging technique widely used in Generative Artificial Intelligence, characterized by their scalability and their use in Transfer Learning. The enormous and heterogeneous amounts of data used in their initial training phase, known as pre-training, give them a higher generalization capacity than any other specific model, constituting a solid base that can be adapted or adjusted to a wide range of tasks, increasing their applicability. This study proposes LLIAM, the Llama Lora-Integrated Autorregresive Model. Low-Rank Adaptations are used to enhance the knowledge of the model with diverse time series datasets, known as the fine-tuning phase. To illustrate the capabilities of our proposal, two sets of experiments have been carried out that obtained favorable and promising results with lower training times than other Deep Learning approaches. With this work, we also encourage the use of available resources (such as these pre-trained models) to avoid unnecessary and costly training, narrowing the gap between the goals of traditional Artificial Intelligence and those specified by the definition of Green Artificial Intelligence.


UmambaTSF: A U-shaped Multi-Scale Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Method Using Mamba

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multivariate Time series forecasting is crucial in domains such as transportation, meteorology, and finance, especially for predicting extreme weather events. State-of-the-art methods predominantly rely on Transformer architectures, which utilize attention mechanisms to capture temporal dependencies. However, these methods are hindered by quadratic time complexity, limiting the model's scalability with respect to input sequence length. This significantly restricts their practicality in the real world. Mamba, based on state space models (SSM), provides a solution with linear time complexity, increasing the potential for efficient forecasting of sequential data. In this study, we propose UmambaTSF, a novel long-term time series forecasting framework that integrates multi-scale feature extraction capabilities of U-shaped encoder-decoder multilayer perceptrons (MLP) with Mamba's long sequence representation. To improve performance and efficiency, the Mamba blocks introduced in the framework adopt a refined residual structure and adaptable design, enabling the capture of unique temporal signals and flexible channel processing. In the experiments, UmambaTSF achieves state-of-the-art performance and excellent generality on widely used benchmark datasets while maintaining linear time complexity and low memory consumption.


Multiple Ships Cooperative Navigation and Collision Avoidance using Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning with Communication

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the real world, unmanned surface vehicles (USV) often need to coordinate with each other to accomplish specific tasks. However, achieving cooperative control in multi-agent systems is challenging due to issues such as non-stationarity and partial observability. Recent advancements in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) provide new perspectives to address these challenges. Therefore, we propose using the multi-agent deep deterministic policy gradient (MADDPG) algorithm with communication to address multiple ships' cooperation problems under partial observability. We developed two tasks based on OpenAI's gym environment: cooperative navigation and cooperative collision avoidance. In these tasks, ships must not only learn effective control strategies but also establish communication protocols with other agents. We analyze the impact of external noise on communication, the effect of inter-agent communication on performance, and the communication patterns learned by the agents. The results demonstrate that our proposed framework effectively addresses cooperative navigation and collision avoidance among multiple vessels, significantly outperforming traditional single-agent algorithms. Agents establish a consistent communication protocol, enabling them to compensate for missing information through shared observations and achieve better coordination.


TimeBridge: Non-Stationarity Matters for Long-term Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Non-stationarity poses significant challenges for multivariate time series forecasting due to the inherent short-term fluctuations and long-term trends that can lead to spurious regressions or obscure essential long-term relationships. Most existing methods either eliminate or retain non-stationarity without adequately addressing its distinct impacts on short-term and long-term modeling. Eliminating non-stationarity is essential for avoiding spurious regressions and capturing local dependencies in short-term modeling, while preserving it is crucial for revealing long-term cointegration across variates. In this paper, we propose Time-Bridge, a novel framework designed to bridge the gap between non-stationarity and dependency modeling in long-term time series forecasting. By segmenting input series into smaller patches, TimeBridge applies Integrated Attention to mitigate short-term non-stationarity and capture stable dependencies within each variate, while Cointegrated Attention preserves non-stationarity to model long-term cointegration across variates. Extensive experiments show that Time-Bridge consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting. Additionally, TimeBridge demonstrates exceptional performance in financial forecasting on the CSI 500 and S&P 500 indices, further validating its robustness and effectiveness. Multivariate time series forecasting aims to predict future changes based on historical observations of time series data, which holds significant applications in fields such as financial investment (Sezer et al., 2020), weather forecasting (Karevan & Suykens, 2020), and traffic flow prediction (Shu et al., 2021). However, the inherent non-stationarity of time series (Kim et al., 2022), characterized by short-term fluctuations and long-term trends, introduces challenges such as spurious regressions, making time series forecasting a particularly complex task. For instance, RevIN (Kim et al., 2022) normalizes the input data and subsequently applies its distributional characteristics to denormalize the output predictions.


IceDiff: High Resolution and High-Quality Sea Ice Forecasting with Generative Diffusion Prior

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Variation of Arctic sea ice has significant impacts on polar ecosystems, transporting routes, coastal communities, and global climate. Tracing the change of sea ice at a finer scale is paramount for both operational applications and scientific studies. Recent pan-Arctic sea ice forecasting methods that leverage advances in artificial intelligence has made promising progress over numerical models. However, forecasting sea ice at higher resolutions is still under-explored. To bridge the gap, we propose a two-staged deep learning framework, IceDiff, to forecast sea ice concentration at finer scales. IceDiff first leverages an independently trained vision transformer to generate coarse yet superior forecasting over previous methods at a regular 25km x 25km grid. This high-quality sea ice forecasting can be utilized as reliable guidance for the next stage. Subsequently, an unconditional diffusion model pre-trained on sea ice concentration maps is utilized for sampling down-scaled sea ice forecasting via a zero-shot guided sampling strategy and a patch-based method. For the first time, IceDiff demonstrates sea ice forecasting with the 6.25km x 6.25km resolution. IceDiff extends the boundary of existing sea ice forecasting models and more importantly, its capability to generate high-resolution sea ice concentration data is vital for pragmatic usages and research.


MRAG-Bench: Vision-Centric Evaluation for Retrieval-Augmented Multimodal Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Existing multimodal retrieval benchmarks primarily focus on evaluating whether models can retrieve and utilize external textual knowledge for question answering. However, there are scenarios where retrieving visual information is either more beneficial or easier to access than textual data. In this paper, we introduce a multimodal retrieval-augmented generation benchmark, MRAG-Bench, in which we systematically identify and categorize scenarios where visually augmented knowledge is better than textual knowledge, for instance, more images from varying viewpoints. MRAG-Bench consists of 16,130 images and 1,353 human-annotated multiple-choice questions across 9 distinct scenarios. With MRAG-Bench, we conduct an evaluation of 10 open-source and 4 proprietary large vision-language models (LVLMs). Our results show that all LVLMs exhibit greater improvements when augmented with images compared to textual knowledge, confirming that MRAG-Bench is vision-centric. Additionally, we conduct extensive analysis with MRAG-Bench, which offers valuable insights into retrieval-augmented LVLMs. Notably, the top-performing model, GPT-4o, faces challenges in effectively leveraging retrieved knowledge, achieving only a 5.82% improvement with ground-truth information, in contrast to a 33.16% improvement observed in human participants. These findings highlight the importance of MRAG-Bench in encouraging the community to enhance LVLMs' ability to utilize retrieved visual knowledge more effectively.


Control System Design and Experiments for Autonomous Underwater Helicopter Docking Procedure Based on Acoustic-inertial-optical Guidance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A control system structure for the underwater docking procedure of an Autonomous Underwater Helicopter (AUH) is proposed in this paper, which utilizes acoustic-inertial-optical guidance. Unlike conventional Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs), the maneuverability requirements for AUHs are more stringent during the docking procedure, requiring it to remain stationary or have minimal horizontal movement while moving vertically. The docking procedure is divided into two stages: Homing and Landing, each stage utilizing different guidance methods. Additionally, a segmented aligning strategy operating at various altitudes and a linear velocity decision are both adopted in Landing stage. Due to the unique structure of the Subsea Docking System (SDS), the AUH is required to dock onto the SDS in a fixed orientation with specific attitude and altitude. Therefore, a particular criterion is proposed to determine whether the AUH has successfully docked onto the SDS. Furthermore, the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed control method in AUH's docking procedure are demonstrated through pool experiments and sea trials.


Toward Physics-guided Time Series Embedding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In various scientific and engineering fields, the primary research areas have revolved around physics-based dynamical systems modeling and data-driven time series analysis. According to the embedding theory, dynamical systems and time series can be mutually transformed using observation functions and physical reconstruction techniques. Based on this, we propose Embedding Duality Theory, where the parameterized embedding layer essentially provides a linear estimation of the non-linear time series dynamics. This theory enables us to bypass the parameterized embedding layer and directly employ physical reconstruction techniques to acquire a data embedding representation. Utilizing physical priors results in a 10X reduction in parameters, a 3X increase in speed, and maximum performance boosts of 18% in expert, 22% in few-shot, and 53\% in zero-shot tasks without any hyper-parameter tuning. All methods are encapsulated as a plug-and-play module


Asking an AI for salary negotiation advice is a matter of concern: Controlled experimental perturbation of ChatGPT for protected and non-protected group discrimination on a contextual task with no clear ground truth answers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We conducted controlled experimental bias audits for four versions of ChatGPT, which we asked to recommend an opening offer in salary negotiations for a new hire. We submitted 98,800 prompts to each version, systematically varying the employee's gender, university, and major, and tested prompts in voice of each side of the negotiation: the employee versus employer. We find ChatGPT as a multi-model platform is not robust and consistent enough to be trusted for such a task. We observed statistically significant salary offers when varying gender for all four models, although with smaller gaps than for other attributes tested. The largest gaps were different model versions and between the employee- vs employer-voiced prompts. We also observed substantial gaps when varying university and major, but many of the biases were not consistent across model versions. We tested for fictional and fraudulent universities and found wildly inconsistent results across cases and model versions. We make broader contributions to the AI/ML fairness literature. Our scenario and our experimental design differ from mainstream AI/ML auditing efforts in key ways. Bias audits typically test discrimination for protected classes like gender, which we contrast with testing non-protected classes of university and major. Asking for negotiation advice includes how aggressive one ought to be in a negotiation relative to known empirical salary distributions and scales, which is a deeply contextual and personalized task that has no objective ground truth to validate. These results raise concerns for the specific model versions we tested and ChatGPT as a multi-model platform in continuous development. Our epistemology does not permit us to definitively certify these models as either generally biased or unbiased on the attributes we test, but our study raises matters of concern for stakeholders to further investigate.


Accelerated Preference Optimization for Large Language Model Alignment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has emerged as a pivotal tool for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences. Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), one of the most popular approaches, formulates RLHF as a policy optimization problem without explicitly estimating the reward function. It overcomes the stability and efficiency issues of two-step approaches, which typically involve first estimating the reward function and then optimizing the policy via proximal policy optimization (PPO). Since RLHF is essentially an optimization problem, and it is well-known that momentum techniques can accelerate optimization both theoretically and empirically, a natural question arises: Can RLHF be accelerated by momentum? This paper answers this question in the affirmative. In detail, we first show that the iterative preference optimization method can be viewed as a proximal point method. Based on this observation, we propose a general Accelerated Preference Optimization (APO) framework, which unifies many existing preference optimization algorithms and employs Nesterov's momentum technique to speed up the alignment of LLMs. Theoretically, we demonstrate that APO can achieve a faster convergence rate than the standard iterative preference optimization methods, including DPO and Self-Play Preference Optimization (SPPO). Empirically, we show the superiority of APO over DPO, iterative DPO, and other strong baselines for RLHF on the AlpacaEval 2.0 benchmark.