Pacific Ocean
Data-Driven Probabilistic Air-Sea Flux Parameterization
Wu, Jiarong, Perezhogin, Pavel, Gagne, David John, Reichl, Brandon, Subramanian, Aneesh C., Thompson, Elizabeth, Zanna, Laure
Accurately quantifying air-sea fluxes is important for understanding air-sea interactions and improving coupled weather and climate systems. This study introduces a probabilistic framework to represent the highly variable nature of air-sea fluxes, which is missing in deterministic bulk algorithms. Assuming Gaussian distributions conditioned on the input variables, we use artificial neural networks and eddy-covariance measurement data to estimate the mean and variance by minimizing negative log-likelihood loss. The trained neural networks provide alternative mean flux estimates to existing bulk algorithms, and quantify the uncertainty around the mean estimates. Stochastic parameterization of air-sea turbulent fluxes can be constructed by sampling from the predicted distributions. Tests in a single-column forced upper-ocean model suggest that changes in flux algorithms influence sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth seasonally. The ensemble spread in stochastic runs is most pronounced during spring restratification.
Generative assimilation and prediction for weather and climate
Yang, Shangshang, Nai, Congyi, Liu, Xinyan, Li, Weidong, Chao, Jie, Wang, Jingnan, Wang, Leyi, Li, Xichen, Chen, Xi, Lu, Bo, Xiao, Ziniu, Boers, Niklas, Yuan, Huiling, Pan, Baoxiang
Machine learning models have shown great success in predicting weather up to two weeks ahead, outperforming process-based benchmarks. However, existing approaches mostly focus on the prediction task, and do not incorporate the necessary data assimilation. Moreover, these models suffer from error accumulation in long roll-outs, limiting their applicability to seasonal predictions or climate projections. Here, we introduce Generative Assimilation and Prediction (GAP), a unified deep generative framework for assimilation and prediction of both weather and climate. By learning to quantify the probabilistic distribution of atmospheric states under observational, predictive, and external forcing constraints, GAP excels in a broad range of weather-climate related tasks, including data assimilation, seamless prediction, and climate simulation. In particular, GAP is competitive with state-of-the-art ensemble assimilation, probabilistic weather forecast and seasonal prediction, yields stable millennial simulations, and reproduces climate variability from daily to decadal time scales.
A Theory of Initialisation's Impact on Specialisation
Jarvis, Devon, Lee, Sebastian, Dominé, Clémentine Carla Juliette, Saxe, Andrew M, Mannelli, Stefano Sarao
Prior work has demonstrated a consistent tendency in neural networks engaged in continual learning tasks, wherein intermediate task similarity results in the highest levels of catastrophic interference. This phenomenon is attributed to the network's tendency to reuse learned features across tasks. However, this explanation heavily relies on the premise that neuron specialisation occurs, i.e. the emergence of localised representations. Our investigation challenges the validity of this assumption. Using theoretical frameworks for the analysis of neural networks, we show a strong dependence of specialisation on the initial condition. More precisely, we show that weight imbalance and high weight entropy can favour specialised solutions. We then apply these insights in the context of continual learning, first showing the emergence of a monotonic relation between task-similarity and forgetting in non-specialised networks. {Finally, we show that specialization by weight imbalance is beneficial on the commonly employed elastic weight consolidation regularisation technique.
Robust detection of overlapping bioacoustic sound events
Mahon, Louis, Hoffman, Benjamin, James, Logan S, Cusimano, Maddie, Hagiwara, Masato, Woolley, Sarah C, Pietquin, Olivier
We propose a method for accurately detecting bioacoustic sound events that is robust to overlapping events, a common issue in domains such as ethology, ecology and conservation. While standard methods employ a frame-based, multi-label approach, we introduce an onset-based detection method which we name Voxaboxen. It takes inspiration from object detection methods in computer vision, but simultaneously takes advantage of recent advances in self-supervised audio encoders. For each time window, Voxaboxen predicts whether it contains the start of a vocalization and how long the vocalization is. It also does the same in reverse, predicting whether each window contains the end of a vocalization, and how long ago it started. The two resulting sets of bounding boxes are then fused using a graph-matching algorithm. We also release a new dataset designed to measure performance on detecting overlapping vocalizations. This consists of recordings of zebra finches annotated with temporally-strong labels and showing frequent overlaps. We test Voxaboxen on seven existing data sets and on our new data set. We compare Voxaboxen to natural baselines and existing sound event detection methods and demonstrate SotA results. Further experiments show that improvements are robust to frequent vocalization overlap.
Projecting Assumptions: The Duality Between Sparse Autoencoders and Concept Geometry
Hindupur, Sai Sumedh R., Lubana, Ekdeep Singh, Fel, Thomas, Ba, Demba
Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) are widely used to interpret neural networks by identifying meaningful concepts from their representations. However, do SAEs truly uncover all concepts a model relies on, or are they inherently biased toward certain kinds of concepts? We introduce a unified framework that recasts SAEs as solutions to a bilevel optimization problem, revealing a fundamental challenge: each SAE imposes structural assumptions about how concepts are encoded in model representations, which in turn shapes what it can and cannot detect. This means different SAEs are not interchangeable -- switching architectures can expose entirely new concepts or obscure existing ones. To systematically probe this effect, we evaluate SAEs across a spectrum of settings: from controlled toy models that isolate key variables, to semi-synthetic experiments on real model activations and finally to large-scale, naturalistic datasets. Across this progression, we examine two fundamental properties that real-world concepts often exhibit: heterogeneity in intrinsic dimensionality (some concepts are inherently low-dimensional, others are not) and nonlinear separability. We show that SAEs fail to recover concepts when these properties are ignored, and we design a new SAE that explicitly incorporates both, enabling the discovery of previously hidden concepts and reinforcing our theoretical insights. Our findings challenge the idea of a universal SAE and underscores the need for architecture-specific choices in model interpretability. Overall, we argue an SAE does not just reveal concepts -- it determines what can be seen at all.
Recurrence-Enhanced Vision-and-Language Transformers for Robust Multimodal Document Retrieval
Caffagni, Davide, Sarto, Sara, Cornia, Marcella, Baraldi, Lorenzo, Cucchiara, Rita
Cross-modal retrieval is gaining increasing efficacy and interest from the research community, thanks to large-scale training, novel architectural and learning designs, and its application in LLMs and multimodal LLMs. In this paper, we move a step forward and design an approach that allows for multimodal queries, composed of both an image and a text, and can search within collections of multimodal documents, where images and text are interleaved. Our model, ReT, employs multi-level representations extracted from different layers of both visual and textual backbones, both at the query and document side. To allow for multi-level and cross-modal understanding and feature extraction, ReT employs a novel Transformer-based recurrent cell that integrates both textual and visual features at different layers, and leverages sigmoidal gates inspired by the classical design of LSTMs. Extensive experiments on M2KR and M-BEIR benchmarks show that ReT achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse settings. Our source code and trained models are publicly available at https://github.com/aimagelab/ReT.
ECLeKTic: a Novel Challenge Set for Evaluation of Cross-Lingual Knowledge Transfer
Goldman, Omer, Shaham, Uri, Malkin, Dan, Eiger, Sivan, Hassidim, Avinatan, Matias, Yossi, Maynez, Joshua, Gilady, Adi Mayrav, Riesa, Jason, Rijhwani, Shruti, Rimell, Laura, Szpektor, Idan, Tsarfaty, Reut, Eyal, Matan
To achieve equitable performance across languages, multilingual large language models (LLMs) must be able to abstract knowledge beyond the language in which it was acquired. However, the current literature lacks reliable ways to measure LLMs' capability of cross-lingual knowledge transfer. To that end, we present ECLeKTic, a multilingual closed-book QA (CBQA) dataset that Evaluates Cross-Lingual Knowledge Transfer in a simple, black-box manner. We detected information with uneven coverage across languages by controlling for presence and absence of Wikipedia articles in 12 languages. We generated knowledge-seeking questions in a source language, for which the answer appears in a relevant Wikipedia article and translated them to all other 11 languages, for which the respective Wikipedias lack equivalent articles. Assuming that Wikipedia reflects the prominent knowledge in the LLM's training data, to solve ECLeKTic's CBQA task the model is required to transfer knowledge between languages. Experimenting with 8 LLMs, we show that SOTA models struggle to effectively share knowledge across, languages even if they can predict the answer well for queries in the same language the knowledge was acquired in.
ReFocus: Reinforcing Mid-Frequency and Key-Frequency Modeling for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
Yu, Guoqi, Li, Yaoming, Wang, Juncheng, Guo, Xiaoyu, Aviles-Rivero, Angelica I., Yang, Tong, Wang, Shujun
Recent advancements have progressively incorporated frequency-based techniques into deep learning models, leading to notable improvements in accuracy and efficiency for time series analysis tasks. However, the Mid-Frequency Spectrum Gap in the real-world time series, where the energy is concentrated at the low-frequency region while the middle-frequency band is negligible, hinders the ability of existing deep learning models to extract the crucial frequency information. Additionally, the shared Key-Frequency in multivariate time series, where different time series share indistinguishable frequency patterns, is rarely exploited by existing literature. This work introduces a novel module, Adaptive Mid-Frequency Energy Optimizer, based on convolution and residual learning, to emphasize the significance of mid-frequency bands. We also propose an Energy-based Key-Frequency Picking Block to capture shared Key-Frequency, which achieves superior inter-series modeling performance with fewer parameters. A novel Key-Frequency Enhanced Training strategy is employed to further enhance Key-Frequency modeling, where spectral information from other channels is randomly introduced into each channel. Our approach advanced multivariate time series forecasting on the challenging Traffic, ECL, and Solar benchmarks, reducing MSE by 4%, 6%, and 5% compared to the previous SOTA iTransformer. Code is available at this GitHub Repository: https://github.com/Levi-Ackman/ReFocus.
Unify and Anchor: A Context-Aware Transformer for Cross-Domain Time Series Forecasting
Hong, Xiaobin, Zhang, Jiawen, Li, Wenzhong, Lu, Sanglu, Li, Jia
The rise of foundation models has revolutionized natural language processing and computer vision, yet their best practices to time series forecasting remains underexplored. Existing time series foundation models often adopt methodologies from these fields without addressing the unique characteristics of time series data. In this paper, we identify two key challenges in cross-domain time series forecasting: the complexity of temporal patterns and semantic misalignment. To tackle these issues, we propose the ``Unify and Anchor" transfer paradigm, which disentangles frequency components for a unified perspective and incorporates external context as domain anchors for guided adaptation. Based on this framework, we introduce ContexTST, a Transformer-based model that employs a time series coordinator for structured representation and the Transformer blocks with a context-informed mixture-of-experts mechanism for effective cross-domain generalization. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ContexTST advances state-of-the-art forecasting performance while achieving strong zero-shot transferability across diverse domains.
Evaluating Personalized Tool-Augmented LLMs from the Perspectives of Personalization and Proactivity
Hao, Yupu, Cao, Pengfei, Jin, Zhuoran, Liao, Huanxuan, Chen, Yubo, Liu, Kang, Zhao, Jun
Personalized tool utilization is essential for aligning large language models (LLMs) with user preference in interaction scenarios with various tools. However, most of the current benchmarks primarily focus on either personalization of text generation or direct tool-utilizing, without considering both. In this work, we introduce a novel benchmark ETAPP for evaluating personalized tool invocation, establishing a sandbox environment, and a comprehensive dataset of 800 testing cases covering diverse user profiles. To improve the accuracy of our evaluation, we propose a key-point-based LLM evaluation method, mitigating biases in the LLM-as-a-judge system by manually annotating key points for each test case and providing them to LLM as the reference. Additionally, we evaluate the excellent LLMs and provide an in-depth analysis. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of different tool-invoking strategies on LLMs' personalization performance and the effects of fine-tuning in our task. The effectiveness of our preference-setting and key-point-based evaluation method is also validated. Our findings offer insights into improving personalized LLM agents. Our Code is available at https://github.com/hypasd-art/ETAPP.