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Spatially-Aware Car-Sharing Demand Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, car-sharing services have emerged as viable alternatives to private individual mobility, promising more sustainable and resource-efficient, but still comfortable transportation. Research on short-term prediction and optimization methods has improved operations and fleet control of car-sharing services; however, long-term projections and spatial analysis are sparse in the literature. We propose to analyze the average monthly demand in a station-based car-sharing service with spatially-aware learning algorithms that offer high predictive performance as well as interpretability. In particular, we compare the spatially-implicit Random Forest model with spatially-aware methods for predicting average monthly per-station demand. The study utilizes a rich set of socio-demographic, location-based (e.g., POIs), and car-sharing-specific features as input, extracted from a large proprietary car-sharing dataset and publicly available datasets. We show that the global Random Forest model with geo-coordinates as an input feature achieves the highest predictive performance with an R-squared score of 0.87, while local methods such as Geographically Weighted Regression perform almost on par and additionally yield exciting insights into the heterogeneous spatial distributions of factors influencing car-sharing behaviour. Additionally, our study offers effective as well as highly interpretable methods for diagnosing and planning the placement of car-sharing stations.


N Korea tests new underwater nuclear attack 'drone': State media

Al Jazeera

North Korea has tested a new underwater nuclear-capable attack drone designed to unleash a "radioactive tsunami" that would destroy enemy naval vessels and ports, state media has reported. During a military exercise conducted this week under the guidance of the country's leader Kim Jong Un, North Korea's military deployed and test-fired the new weapons system, the mission of which was to test the ability to set off a "super-scale" destructive blast and wave, the country's state news agency KCNA said on Friday. "This nuclear underwater attack drone can be deployed at any coast and port or towed by a surface ship for operation," KCNA said. The news agency said that during the exercise, the drone was put in the water off South Hamgyong province on Tuesday and cruised underwater for 59 hours and 12 minutes, at a depth of some 80 to 150 metres (260 to 490 feet), before detonating in waters off its east coast on Thursday. KCNA did not elaborate on the drone's nuclear capabilities.


Russia's Space Program Is in Big Trouble

WIRED

Crippled by war and sanctions, Russia now faces evidence that its already-struggling space program is falling apart. In the past three months alone, Roscosmos has scrambled to resolve two alarming incidents. First, one of its formerly dependable Soyuz spacecraft sprang a coolant leak. Then the same thing happened on one of its Progress cargo ships. The civil space program's Soviet predecessor launched the first person into orbit, but with the International Space Station (ISS) nearing the end of its life, Russia's space agency is staring into the abyss.


Improved Benthic Classification using Resolution Scaling and SymmNet Unsupervised Domain Adaptation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) conduct regular visual surveys of marine environments to characterise and monitor the composition and diversity of the benthos. The use of machine learning classifiers for this task is limited by the low numbers of annotations available and the many fine-grained classes involved. In addition to these challenges, there are domain shifts between image sets acquired during different AUV surveys due to changes in camera systems, imaging altitude, illumination and water column properties leading to a drop in classification performance for images from a different survey where some or all these elements may have changed. This paper proposes a framework to improve the performance of a benthic morphospecies classifier when used to classify images from a different survey compared to the training data. We adapt the SymmNet state-of-the-art Unsupervised Domain Adaptation method with an efficient bilinear pooling layer and image scaling to normalise spatial resolution, and show improved classification accuracy. We test our approach on two datasets with images from AUV surveys with different imaging payloads and locations. The results show that generic domain adaptation can be enhanced to produce a significant increase in accuracy for images from an AUV survey that differs from the training images.


Russia's drone attack: Why China could try it next

FOX News

Fox News correspondent Mike Tobin has the latest on tensions amid the Russia-Ukraine war on'Special Report.' The Russians planned the Black Sea drone attack carefully, probably for weeks. And watch out, China could try it next. As the admiral played by the late Sen. Fred D. Thompson said to Alec Baldwin's character in the classic movie "The Hunt for Red October," "The Russians don't do anything without a plan." Somebody on the Russian side thought this through.


SA-CNN: Application to text categorization issues using simulated annealing-based convolutional neural network optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are a representative class of deep learning algorithms including convolutional computation that perform translation-invariant classification of input data based on their hierarchical architecture. However, classical convolutional neural network learning methods use the steepest descent algorithm for training, and the learning performance is greatly influenced by the initial weight settings of the convolutional and fully connected layers, requiring re-tuning to achieve better performance under different model structures and data. Combining the strengths of the simulated annealing algorithm in global search, we propose applying it to the hyperparameter search process in order to increase the effectiveness of convolutional neural networks (CNNs). In this paper, we introduce SA-CNN neural networks for text classification tasks based on Text-CNN neural networks and implement the simulated annealing algorithm for hyperparameter search. Experiments demonstrate that we can achieve greater classification accuracy than earlier models with manual tuning, and the improvement in time and space for exploration relative to human tuning is substantial.


The next world power will be the first to harness the power of AI, former defense official argues in new book

#artificialintelligence

The global battle for AI dominance is underway, according to author Paul Scharre, a former Army Ranger and current VP and director of studies at the Center for New American Security -- a think tank specializing in national security issues. Scharre previously served as a strategic planner at the Office of the Secretary of Defense, working to establish policies on unmanned and autonomous systems and emerging weapons technologies, and established DOD policies on intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance programs. In his latest book, "Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence," Scharre explores how the international battle for the most powerful AI technology is changing global power dynamics. That battle, he says, is a global competition to seek the best and most efficient data, computing hardware, human talent, and institutions adopting AI technology -- which will determine the next global superpower. In your new book, you argue there's a battle for global power going on in the form of a revolution brought about by artificial intelligence.


DOMINO: Visual Causal Reasoning with Time-Dependent Phenomena

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current work on using visual analytics to determine causal relations among variables has mostly been based on the concept of counterfactuals. As such the derived static causal networks do not take into account the effect of time as an indicator. However, knowing the time delay of a causal relation can be crucial as it instructs how and when actions should be taken. Yet, similar to static causality, deriving causal relations from observational time-series data, as opposed to designed experiments, is not a straightforward process. It can greatly benefit from human insight to break ties and resolve errors. We hence propose a set of visual analytics methods that allow humans to participate in the discovery of causal relations associated with windows of time delay. Specifically, we leverage a well-established method, logic-based causality, to enable analysts to test the significance of potential causes and measure their influences toward a certain effect. Furthermore, since an effect can be a cause of other effects, we allow users to aggregate different temporal cause-effect relations found with our method into a visual flow diagram to enable the discovery of temporal causal networks. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods we constructed a prototype system named DOMINO and showcase it via a number of case studies using real-world datasets. Finally, we also used DOMINO to conduct several evaluations with human analysts from different science domains in order to gain feedback on the utility of our system in practical scenarios.


ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities across tasks in language understanding and interactive decision making, their abilities for reasoning (e.g. chain-of-thought prompting) and acting (e.g. action plan generation) have primarily been studied as separate topics. In this paper, we explore the use of LLMs to generate both reasoning traces and task-specific actions in an interleaved manner, allowing for greater synergy between the two: reasoning traces help the model induce, track, and update action plans as well as handle exceptions, while actions allow it to interface with external sources, such as knowledge bases or environments, to gather additional information. We apply our approach, named ReAct, to a diverse set of language and decision making tasks and demonstrate its effectiveness over state-of-the-art baselines, as well as improved human interpretability and trustworthiness over methods without reasoning or acting components. Concretely, on question answering (HotpotQA) and fact verification (Fever), ReAct overcomes issues of hallucination and error propagation prevalent in chain-of-thought reasoning by interacting with a simple Wikipedia API, and generates human-like task-solving trajectories that are more interpretable than baselines without reasoning traces. On two interactive decision making benchmarks (ALFWorld and WebShop), ReAct outperforms imitation and reinforcement learning methods by an absolute success rate of 34% and 10% respectively, while being prompted with only one or two in-context examples. Project site with code: https://react-lm.github.io


Toward Polar Sea-Ice Classification using Color-based Segmentation and Auto-labeling of Sentinel-2 Imagery to Train an Efficient Deep Learning Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Global warming is an urgent issue that is generating catastrophic environmental changes, such as the melting of sea ice and glaciers, particularly in the polar regions. The melting pattern and retreat of polar sea ice cover is an essential indicator of global warming. The Sentinel-2 satellite (S2) captures high-resolution optical imagery over the polar regions. This research aims at developing a robust and effective system for classifying polar sea ice as thick or snow-covered, young or thin, or open water using S2 images. A key challenge is the lack of labeled S2 training data to serve as the ground truth. We demonstrate a method with high precision to segment and automatically label the S2 images based on suitably determined color thresholds and employ these auto-labeled data to train a U-Net machine model (a fully convolutional neural network), yielding good classification accuracy. Evaluation results over S2 data from the polar summer season in the Ross Sea region of the Antarctic show that the U-Net model trained on auto-labeled data has an accuracy of 90.18% over the original S2 images, whereas the U-Net model trained on manually labeled data has an accuracy of 91.39%. Filtering out the thin clouds and shadows from the S2 images further improves U-Net's accuracy, respectively, to 98.97% for auto-labeled and 98.40% for manually labeled training datasets.