This paper shows that time series forecasting Transformer (TSFT) suffers from severe over-fitting problem caused by improper initialization method of unknown decoder inputs, esp. when handling non-stationary time series. Based on this observation, we propose GBT, a novel two-stage Transformer framework with Good Beginning. It decouples the prediction process of TSFT into two stages, including Auto-Regression stage and Self-Regression stage to tackle the problem of different statistical properties between input and prediction sequences.Prediction results of Auto-Regression stage serve as a Good Beginning, i.e., a better initialization for inputs of Self-Regression stage. We also propose Error Score Modification module to further enhance the forecasting capability of the Self-Regression stage in GBT. Extensive experiments on seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that GBT outperforms SOTA TSFTs (FEDformer, Pyraformer, ETSformer, etc.) and many other forecasting models (SCINet, N-HiTS, etc.) with only canonical attention and convolution while owning less time and space complexity. It is also general enough to couple with these models to strengthen their forecasting capability. The source code is available at: https://github.com/OrigamiSL/GBT

Causal phenomena associated with rare events occur across a wide range of engineering problems, such as risk-sensitive safety analysis, accident analysis and prevention, and extreme value theory. However, current methods for causal discovery are often unable to uncover causal links, between random variables in a dynamic setting, that manifest only when the variables first experience low-probability realizations. To address this issue, we introduce a novel statistical independence test on data collected from time-invariant dynamical systems in which rare but consequential events occur. In particular, we exploit the time-invariance of the underlying data to construct a superimposed dataset of the system state before rare events happen at different timesteps. We then design a conditional independence test on the reorganized data. We provide non-asymptotic sample complexity bounds for the consistency of our method, and validate its performance across various simulated and real-world datasets, including incident data collected from the Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS). Code containing the datasets and experiments is publicly available.

Elon Musk has launched an artificial intelligence startup that will be "pro-humanity", as he said the world needed to worry about the prospect of a "terminator future" in order to avoid the most apocalyptic AI scenarios. Musk said xAI would seek to build a system that would be safe because it was "maximally curious" about humanity rather than having moral guidelines programmed into it. The world's wealthiest person was one of the signatories to a letter this year that called for a pause in building large AI models such as ChatGPT, the chatbot built by the US firm OpenAI. There are growing fears that development of AI technology will race beyond human control. Speaking on a Spaces discussion on Twitter, Musk saida pause no longer seemed realistic and he hopped xAI would provide an alternative path.

AGI, while powerful, could have negative consequences, warned Diveplane CEO Mike Capps and Liberty Blockchain CCO Christopher Alexander. Amazon's top technology officer told the United Nations this week that people will need to eat more fish and less beef if they want to protect the environment, and said artificial intelligence is a tool that is already helping to make that happen. Dr. Werner Vogels, chief technology officer and vice president of Amazon, told the "AI for Good" global summit in Geneva this week that AI is helping rice farmers and other food producers around the world be much more efficient. However, he said AI will also play an important role in making sure food comes at a lower cost to the environment. In his remarks to the conference on July 6, Vogels showed a graphic that said it takes seven times more feed to produce a given amount of protein from a cattle farm compared to a fish farm.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have gained growing interest in miscellaneous applications owing to their outstanding ability in extracting latent representation on graph structures. To render GNN-based service for IoT-driven smart applications, traditional model serving paradigms usually resort to the cloud by fully uploading geo-distributed input data to remote datacenters. However, our empirical measurements reveal the significant communication overhead of such cloud-based serving and highlight the profound potential in applying the emerging fog computing. To maximize the architectural benefits brought by fog computing, in this paper, we present Fograph, a novel distributed real-time GNN inference framework that leverages diverse and dynamic resources of multiple fog nodes in proximity to IoT data sources. By introducing heterogeneity-aware execution planning and GNN-specific compression techniques, Fograph tailors its design to well accommodate the unique characteristics of GNN serving in fog environments. Prototype-based evaluation and case study demonstrate that Fograph significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art cloud serving and fog deployment by up to 5.39x execution speedup and 6.84x throughput improvement.

Stochastic generators are useful for estimating climate impacts on various sectors. Projecting climate risk in various sectors, e.g. energy systems, requires generators that are accurate (statistical resemblance to ground-truth), reliable (do not produce erroneous examples), and efficient. Leveraging data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System, we introduce TemperatureGAN, a Generative Adversarial Network conditioned on months, locations, and time periods, to generate 2m above ground atmospheric temperatures at an hourly resolution. We propose evaluation methods and metrics to measure the quality of generated samples. We show that TemperatureGAN produces high-fidelity examples with good spatial representation and temporal dynamics consistent with known diurnal cycles.

Environmental damage has been of much concern, particularly in coastal areas and the oceans, given climate change and the drastic effects of pollution and extreme climate events. Our present-day analytical capabilities, along with advancements in information acquisition techniques such as remote sensing, can be utilised for the management and study of coral reef ecosystems. In this paper, we present Reef-Insight, an unsupervised machine learning framework that features advanced clustering methods and remote sensing for reef habitat mapping. Our framework compares different clustering methods for reef habitat mapping using remote sensing data. We evaluate four major clustering approaches based on qualitative and visual assessments which include k-means, hierarchical clustering, Gaussian mixture model, and density-based clustering. We utilise remote sensing data featuring the One Tree Island reef in Australia's Southern Great Barrier Reef. Our results indicate that clustering methods using remote sensing data can well identify benthic and geomorphic clusters in reefs when compared with other studies. Our results indicate that Reef-Insight can generate detailed reef habitat maps outlining distinct reef habitats and has the potential to enable further insights for reef restoration projects.

Marine litter poses significant threats to marine and coastal environments, with its impacts ever-growing. Remote sensing provides an advantageous supplement to traditional mitigation techniques, such as local cleaning operations and trawl net surveys, due to its capabilities for extensive coverage and frequent observation. In this study, we used Radiative Transfer Model (RTM) simulated data and data from the Multispectral Instrument (MSI) of the Sentinel-2 mission in combination with machine learning algorithms. Our aim was to study the spectral behavior of marine plastic pollution and evaluate the applicability of RTMs within this research area. The results from the exploratory analysis and unsupervised classification using the KMeans algorithm indicate that the spectral behavior of pollutants is influenced by factors such as the type of polymer and pixel coverage percentage. The findings also reveal spectral characteristics and trends of association and differentiation among elements. The applied methodology is strongly dependent on the data, and if reapplied in new, more diverse, and detailed datasets, it can potentially generate even better results. These insights can guide future research in remote sensing applications for detecting marine plastic pollution.

This paper studies the application of ensembles composed of multi-output models for multi-step ahead forecasting problems. Dynamic ensembles have been commonly used for forecasting. However, these are typically designed for one-step-ahead tasks. On the other hand, the literature regarding the application of dynamic ensembles for multi-step ahead forecasting is scarce. Moreover, it is not clear how the combination rule is applied across the forecasting horizon. We carried out extensive experiments to analyze the application of dynamic ensembles for multi-step forecasting. We resorted to a case study with 3568 time series and an ensemble of 30 multi-output models. We discovered that dynamic ensembles based on arbitrating and windowing present the best performance according to average rank. Moreover, as the horizon increases, most approaches struggle to outperform a static ensemble that assigns equal weights to all models. The experiments are publicly available in a repository.

One of the challenges practitioners face when applying structure learning algorithms to their data involves determining a set of hyperparameters; otherwise, a set of hyperparameter defaults is assumed. The optimal hyperparameter configuration often depends on multiple factors, including the size and density of the usually unknown underlying true graph, the sample size of the input data, and the structure learning algorithm. We propose a novel hyperparameter tuning method, called the Out-of-sample Tuning for Structure Learning (OTSL), that employs out-of-sample and resampling strategies to estimate the optimal hyperparameter configuration for structure learning, given the input data set and structure learning algorithm. Synthetic experiments show that employing OTSL as a means to tune the hyperparameters of hybrid and score-based structure learning algorithms leads to improvements in graphical accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art. We also illustrate the applicability of this approach to real datasets from different disciplines.