The short-time Fourier transform (STFT) is a frequently used tool for analyzing non-stationary digital signals in various fields including audio Stafford et al. [1998], medicine Huang et al. [2019], and vibration analysis Leclère et al. [2016]. Spectrograms, which are obtained from the STFT magnitude, are essential for visualizing, understanding, and processing non-stationary signals in time-frequency representation. The STFT parameters, including tapering function, window length, and hop length, are critical and dependent on the application and signal characteristics. The tapering function balances frequency resolution and spectral leakage, with a narrower main lobe providing better frequency resolution at the expense of increased spectral leakage, and a wider main lobe reducing spectral leakage but decreasing frequency resolution. The Hann or Hamming window is a common starting point, but the best choice depends on the application's specific requirements. Actually, most studies on STFT parameters have focused on the choice of the window length, as it determines the time-frequency resolution trade-off. A shorter window length provides better time resolution but poor frequency resolution. Conversely, a longer window length provides better frequency resolution but poor time resolution. To provide more precise control over temporal and frequency resolution based on the local characteristics of the input signal, researchers have proposed using variable-length windows.

The emergence of generative pre-trained models has facilitated the synthesis of high-quality text, but it has also posed challenges in identifying factual errors in the generated text. In particular: (1) A wider range of tasks now face an increasing risk of containing factual errors when handled by generative models. (2) Generated texts tend to be lengthy and lack a clearly defined granularity for individual facts. (3) There is a scarcity of explicit evidence available during the process of fact checking. With the above challenges in mind, in this paper, we propose FacTool, a task and domain agnostic framework for detecting factual errors of texts generated by large language models (e.g., ChatGPT). Experiments on four different tasks (knowledge-based QA, code generation, mathematical reasoning, and scientific literature review) show the efficacy of the proposed method. We release the code of FacTool associated with ChatGPT plugin interface at https://github.com/GAIR-NLP/factool .

Accurate and timely prediction of sea fog is very important for effectively managing maritime and coastal economic activities. Given the intricate nature and inherent variability of sea fog, traditional numerical and statistical forecasting methods are often proven inadequate. This study aims to develop an advanced sea fog forecasting method embedded in a numerical weather prediction model using the Yangtze River Estuary (YRE) coastal area as a case study. Prior to training our machine learning model, we employ a time-lagged correlation analysis technique to identify key predictors and decipher the underlying mechanisms driving sea fog occurrence. In addition, we implement ensemble learning and a focal loss function to address the issue of imbalanced data, thereby enhancing the predictive ability of our model. To verify the accuracy of our method, we evaluate its performance using a comprehensive dataset spanning one year, which encompasses both weather station observations and historical forecasts. Remarkably, our machine learning-based approach surpasses the predictive performance of two conventional methods, the weather research and forecasting nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (WRF-NMM) and the algorithm developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL). Specifically, in regard to predicting sea fog with a visibility of less than or equal to 1 km with a lead time of 60 hours, our methodology achieves superior results by increasing the probability of detection (POD) while simultaneously reducing the false alarm ratio (FAR).

Obtaining accurate probabilistic forecasts while respecting hierarchical information is an important operational challenge in many applications, perhaps most obviously in energy management, supply chain planning, and resource allocation. The basic challenge, especially for multivariate forecasting, is that forecasts are often required to be coherent with respect to the hierarchical structure. In this paper, we propose a new model which leverages a factor model structure to produce coherent forecasts by construction. This is a consequence of a simple (exchangeability) observation: permuting \textit{}base-level series in the hierarchy does not change their aggregates. Our model uses a convolutional neural network to produce parameters for the factors, their loadings and base-level distributions; it produces samples which can be differentiated with respect to the model's parameters; and it can therefore optimize for any sample-based loss function, including the Continuous Ranked Probability Score and quantile losses. We can choose arbitrary continuous distributions for the factor and the base-level distributions. We compare our method to two previous methods which can be optimized end-to-end, while enforcing coherent aggregation. Our model achieves significant improvements: between $11.8-41.4\%$ on three hierarchical forecasting datasets. We also analyze the influence of parameters in our model with respect to base-level distribution and number of factors.

We present a data-driven emulator, stochastic weather generator (SWG), suitable for estimating probabilities of prolonged heatwaves in France and Scandinavia. This emulator is based on the method of analogs of circulation to which we add temperature and soil moisture as predictor fields. We train the emulator on an intermediate complexity climate model run and show that it is capable of predicting conditional probabilities (forecasting) of heatwaves out of sample. Special attention is payed that this prediction is evaluated using proper score appropriate for rare events. To accelerate the computation of analogs dimensionality reduction techniques are applied and the performance is evaluated. The probabilistic prediction achieved with SWG is compared with the one achieved with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). With the availability of hundreds of years of training data CNNs perform better at the task of probabilistic prediction. In addition, we show that the SWG emulator trained on 80 years of data is capable of estimating extreme return times of order of thousands of years for heatwaves longer than several days more precisely than the fit based on generalised extreme value distribution. Finally, the quality of its synthetic extreme teleconnection patterns obtained with stochastic weather generator is studied. We showcase two examples of such synthetic teleconnection patterns for heatwaves in France and Scandinavia that compare favorably to the very long climate model control run.

This paper shows that time series forecasting Transformer (TSFT) suffers from severe over-fitting problem caused by improper initialization method of unknown decoder inputs, esp. when handling non-stationary time series. Based on this observation, we propose GBT, a novel two-stage Transformer framework with Good Beginning. It decouples the prediction process of TSFT into two stages, including Auto-Regression stage and Self-Regression stage to tackle the problem of different statistical properties between input and prediction sequences.Prediction results of Auto-Regression stage serve as a Good Beginning, i.e., a better initialization for inputs of Self-Regression stage. We also propose Error Score Modification module to further enhance the forecasting capability of the Self-Regression stage in GBT. Extensive experiments on seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that GBT outperforms SOTA TSFTs (FEDformer, Pyraformer, ETSformer, etc.) and many other forecasting models (SCINet, N-HiTS, etc.) with only canonical attention and convolution while owning less time and space complexity. It is also general enough to couple with these models to strengthen their forecasting capability. The source code is available at: https://github.com/OrigamiSL/GBT

Causal phenomena associated with rare events occur across a wide range of engineering problems, such as risk-sensitive safety analysis, accident analysis and prevention, and extreme value theory. However, current methods for causal discovery are often unable to uncover causal links, between random variables in a dynamic setting, that manifest only when the variables first experience low-probability realizations. To address this issue, we introduce a novel statistical independence test on data collected from time-invariant dynamical systems in which rare but consequential events occur. In particular, we exploit the time-invariance of the underlying data to construct a superimposed dataset of the system state before rare events happen at different timesteps. We then design a conditional independence test on the reorganized data. We provide non-asymptotic sample complexity bounds for the consistency of our method, and validate its performance across various simulated and real-world datasets, including incident data collected from the Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS). Code containing the datasets and experiments is publicly available.

Elon Musk has launched an artificial intelligence startup that will be "pro-humanity", as he said the world needed to worry about the prospect of a "terminator future" in order to avoid the most apocalyptic AI scenarios. Musk said xAI would seek to build a system that would be safe because it was "maximally curious" about humanity rather than having moral guidelines programmed into it. The world's wealthiest person was one of the signatories to a letter this year that called for a pause in building large AI models such as ChatGPT, the chatbot built by the US firm OpenAI. There are growing fears that development of AI technology will race beyond human control. Speaking on a Spaces discussion on Twitter, Musk saida pause no longer seemed realistic and he hopped xAI would provide an alternative path.

AGI, while powerful, could have negative consequences, warned Diveplane CEO Mike Capps and Liberty Blockchain CCO Christopher Alexander. Amazon's top technology officer told the United Nations this week that people will need to eat more fish and less beef if they want to protect the environment, and said artificial intelligence is a tool that is already helping to make that happen. Dr. Werner Vogels, chief technology officer and vice president of Amazon, told the "AI for Good" global summit in Geneva this week that AI is helping rice farmers and other food producers around the world be much more efficient. However, he said AI will also play an important role in making sure food comes at a lower cost to the environment. In his remarks to the conference on July 6, Vogels showed a graphic that said it takes seven times more feed to produce a given amount of protein from a cattle farm compared to a fish farm.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have gained growing interest in miscellaneous applications owing to their outstanding ability in extracting latent representation on graph structures. To render GNN-based service for IoT-driven smart applications, traditional model serving paradigms usually resort to the cloud by fully uploading geo-distributed input data to remote datacenters. However, our empirical measurements reveal the significant communication overhead of such cloud-based serving and highlight the profound potential in applying the emerging fog computing. To maximize the architectural benefits brought by fog computing, in this paper, we present Fograph, a novel distributed real-time GNN inference framework that leverages diverse and dynamic resources of multiple fog nodes in proximity to IoT data sources. By introducing heterogeneity-aware execution planning and GNN-specific compression techniques, Fograph tailors its design to well accommodate the unique characteristics of GNN serving in fog environments. Prototype-based evaluation and case study demonstrate that Fograph significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art cloud serving and fog deployment by up to 5.39x execution speedup and 6.84x throughput improvement.