Recent research has shown an increasing interest in utilizing pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for a variety of time series applications. However, there are three main challenges when using LLMs as foundational models for time series forecasting: (1) Cross-domain generalization. (2) Cross-modality alignment. (3) Error accumulation in autoregressive frameworks. To address these challenges, we proposed LangTime, a language-guided unified model for time series forecasting that incorporates cross-domain pre-training with reinforcement learning-based fine-tuning. Specifically, LangTime constructs Temporal Comprehension Prompts (TCPs), which include dataset-wise and channel-wise instructions, to facilitate domain adaptation and condense time series into a single token, enabling LLMs to understand better and align temporal data. To improve autoregressive forecasting, we introduce TimePPO, a reinforcement learning-based fine-tuning algorithm. TimePPO mitigates error accumulation by leveraging a multidimensional rewards function tailored for time series and a repeat-based value estimation strategy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that LangTime achieves state-of-the-art cross-domain forecasting performance, while TimePPO fine-tuning effectively enhances the stability and accuracy of autoregressive forecasting.

Integrated gradients is prevalent within machine learning to address the black-box problem of neural networks. The explanations given by integrated gradients depend on a choice of base-point. The choice of base-point is not a priori obvious and can lead to drastically different explanations. There is a longstanding hypothesis that data lies on a low dimensional Riemannian manifold. The quality of explanations on a manifold can be measured by the extent to which an explanation for a point lies in its tangent space. In this work, we propose that the base-point should be chosen such that it maximises the tangential alignment of the explanation. We formalise the notion of tangential alignment and provide theoretical conditions under which a base-point choice will provide explanations lying in the tangent space. We demonstrate how to approximate the optimal base-point on several well-known image classification datasets. Furthermore, we compare the optimal base-point choice with common base-points and three gradient explainability models.

Accurate quantification of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties is essential when deploying Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) in high-stakes applications such as drug discovery and financial fraud detection, where reliable predictions are critical. Although Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) efficiently quantifies uncertainty using a Dirichlet distribution over predictive probabilities, existing EDL-based GNN (EGNN) models require modifications to the network architecture and retraining, failing to take advantage of pre-trained models. We propose a plug-and-play framework for uncertainty quantification in GNNs that works with pre-trained models without the need for retraining. Our Evidential Probing Network (EPN) uses a lightweight Multi-Layer-Perceptron (MLP) head to extract evidence from learned representations, allowing efficient integration with various GNN architectures. We further introduce evidence-based regularization techniques, referred to as EPN-reg, to enhance the estimation of epistemic uncertainty with theoretical justifications. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed EPN-reg achieves state-of-the-art performance in accurate and efficient uncertainty quantification, making it suitable for real-world deployment.

Lexical Semantic Change (LSC) offers insights into cultural and social dynamics. Yet, the validity of methods for measuring kinds of LSC has yet to be established due to the absence of historical benchmark datasets. To address this gap, we develop a novel three-stage evaluation framework that involves: 1) creating a scalable, domain-general methodology for generating synthetic datasets that simulate theory-driven LSC across time, leveraging In-Context Learning and a lexical database; 2) using these datasets to evaluate the effectiveness of various methods; and 3) assessing their suitability for specific dimensions and domains. We apply this framework to simulate changes across key dimensions of LSC (SIB: Sentiment, Intensity, and Breadth) using examples from psychology, and evaluate the sensitivity of selected methods to detect these artificially induced changes. Our findings support the utility of the synthetic data approach, validate the efficacy of tailored methods for detecting synthetic changes in SIB, and reveal that a state-of-the-art LSC model faces challenges in detecting affective dimensions of LSC. This framework provides a valuable tool for dimension- and domain-specific bench-marking and evaluation of LSC methods, with particular benefits for the social sciences.

DeepSeek-R1-Zero has successfully demonstrated the emergence of reasoning capabilities in LLMs purely through Reinforcement Learning (RL). Inspired by this breakthrough, we explore how RL can be utilized to enhance the reasoning capability of MLLMs. However, direct training with RL struggles to activate complex reasoning capabilities such as questioning and reflection in MLLMs, due to the absence of substantial high-quality multimodal reasoning data. To address this issue, we propose the reasoning MLLM, Vision-R1, to improve multimodal reasoning capability. Specifically, we first construct a high-quality multimodal CoT dataset without human annotations by leveraging an existing MLLM and DeepSeek-R1 through modality bridging and data filtering to obtain a 200K multimodal CoT dataset, Vision-R1-cold dataset. It serves as cold-start initialization data for Vision-R1. To mitigate the optimization challenges caused by overthinking after cold start, we propose Progressive Thinking Suppression Training (PTST) strategy and employ Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with the hard formatting result reward function to gradually refine the model's ability to learn correct and complex reasoning processes on a 10K multimodal math dataset. Comprehensive experiments show our model achieves an average improvement of $\sim$6% across various multimodal math reasoning benchmarks. Vision-R1-7B achieves a 73.5% accuracy on the widely used MathVista benchmark, which is only 0.4% lower than the leading reasoning model, OpenAI O1. The datasets and code will be released in: https://github.com/Osilly/Vision-R1 .

While in-processing fairness approaches show promise in mitigating biased predictions, their potential impact on privacy leakage remains under-explored. We aim to address this gap by assessing the privacy risks of fairness-enhanced binary classifiers via membership inference attacks (MIAs) and attribute inference attacks (AIAs). Surprisingly, our results reveal that enhancing fairness does not necessarily lead to privacy compromises. For example, these fairness interventions exhibit increased resilience against MIAs and AIAs. This is because fairness interventions tend to remove sensitive information among extracted features and reduce confidence scores for the majority of training data for fairer predictions. However, during the evaluations, we uncover a potential threat mechanism that exploits prediction discrepancies between fair and biased models, leading to advanced attack results for both MIAs and AIAs. This mechanism reveals potent vulnerabilities of fair models and poses significant privacy risks of current fairness methods. Extensive experiments across multiple datasets, attack methods, and representative fairness approaches confirm our findings and demonstrate the efficacy of the uncovered mechanism. Our study exposes the under-explored privacy threats in fairness studies, advocating for thorough evaluations of potential security vulnerabilities before model deployments.

Jointly modeling and forecasting economic and financial variables across a large set of countries has long been a significant challenge. Two primary approaches have been utilized to address this issue: the vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (VARX) and the matrix autoregression (MAR). The VARX model captures domestic dependencies, but treats variables exogenous to represent global factors driven by international trade. In contrast, the MAR model simultaneously considers variables from multiple countries but ignores the trade network. In this paper, we propose an extension of the MAR model that achieves these two aims at once, i.e., studying both international dependencies and the impact of the trade network on the global economy. Additionally, we introduce a sparse component to the model to differentiate between systematic and idiosyncratic cross-predictability. To estimate the model parameters, we propose both a likelihood estimation method and a bias-corrected alternating minimization version. We provide theoretical and empirical analyses of the model's properties, alongside presenting intriguing economic insights derived from our findings.

The widespread use of modern neural networks for high-stakes applications requires safety guarantees on their performance on future data, which have not been observed during the training [Xu and Goodacre, 2018, Russell and Norvig, 2020]. A well-established approach to train and evaluate the performance of a predictor consists of the following steps. First, the available data are split in a train and a test datasets. The training data are used to construct the predictor, whose performance is then assessed on the test data (empirical test risk). Finally, concentration inequalities [Boucheron et al., 2013] are used to derive, from this finite-sample test, an upper bound on the model expected performance over the data distribution (population risk) [Langford, 2005].

After a year of shoehorning generative AI into its flagship products, Microsoft is trying to recoup the costs by raising prices, putting ads in products, and cancelling data centre leases. Google is making similar moves, adding unavoidable AI features to its Workspace service while increasing prices. Is the tide finally turning on investments into generative AI? The situation is not quite so simple. Tech companies are fully committed to the new technology – but are struggling to find ways to make people pay for it.

Information systems generate a large volume of event log data during business operations, much of which consists of low-value and redundant information. When performance predictions are made directly from these logs, the accuracy of the predictions can be compromised. Researchers have explored methods to simplify and compress these data while preserving their valuable components. Most existing approaches focus on reducing the dimensionality of the data by eliminating redundant and irrelevant features. However, there has been limited investigation into the efficiency of execution both before and after event log simplification. In this paper, we present a prediction point selection algorithm designed to avoid the simplification of all points that function similarly. We select sequences or self-loop structures to form a simplifiable segment, and we optimize the deviation between the actual simplifiable value and the original data prediction value to prevent over-simplification. Experiments indicate that the simplified event log retains its predictive performance and, in some cases, enhances its predictive accuracy compared to the original event log.