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Differentiable Folding for Nearest Neighbor Model Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Nearest Neighbor model is the $\textit{de facto}$ thermodynamic model of RNA secondary structure formation and is a cornerstone of RNA structure prediction and sequence design. The current functional form (Turner 2004) contains $\approx13,000$ underlying thermodynamic parameters, and fitting these to both experimental and structural data is computationally challenging. Here, we leverage recent advances in $\textit{differentiable folding}$, a method for directly computing gradients of the RNA folding algorithms, to devise an efficient, scalable, and flexible means of parameter optimization that uses known RNA structures and thermodynamic experiments. Our method yields a significantly improved parameter set that outperforms existing baselines on all metrics, including an increase in the average predicted probability of ground-truth sequence-structure pairs for a single RNA family by over 23 orders of magnitude. Our framework provides a path towards drastically improved RNA models, enabling the flexible incorporation of new experimental data, definition of novel loss terms, large training sets, and even treatment as a module in larger deep learning pipelines. We make available a new database, RNAometer, with experimentally-determined stabilities for small RNA model systems.


Large Language Model as Meta-Surrogate for Data-Driven Many-Task Optimization: A Proof-of-Principle Study

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In many-task optimization scenarios, surrogate models are valuable for mitigating the computational burden of repeated fitness evaluations across tasks. This study proposes a novel meta-surrogate framework to assist many-task optimization, by leveraging the knowledge transfer strengths and emergent capabilities of large language models (LLMs). We formulate a unified framework for many-task fitness prediction, by defining a universal model with metadata to fit a group of problems. Fitness prediction is performed on metadata and decision variables, enabling efficient knowledge sharing across tasks and adaptability to new tasks. The LLM-based meta-surrogate treats fitness prediction as conditional probability estimation, employing a unified token sequence representation for task metadata, inputs, and outputs. This approach facilitates efficient inter-task knowledge sharing through shared token embeddings and captures complex task dependencies via multi-task model training. Experimental results demonstrate the model's emergent generalization ability, including zero-shot performance on problems with unseen dimensions. When integrated into evolutionary transfer optimization (ETO), our framework supports dual-level knowledge transfer -- at both the surrogate and individual levels -- enhancing optimization efficiency and robustness. This work establishes a novel foundation for applying LLMs in surrogate modeling, offering a versatile solution for many-task optimization.


On Generalization Across Environments In Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Real-world sequential decision-making tasks often require balancing trade-offs between multiple conflicting objectives, making Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning (MORL) an increasingly prominent field of research. Despite recent advances, existing MORL literature has narrowly focused on performance within static environments, neglecting the importance of generalizing across diverse settings. Conversely, existing research on generalization in RL has always assumed scalar rewards, overlooking the inherent multi-objectivity of real-world problems. Generalization in the multi-objective context is fundamentally more challenging, as it requires learning a Pareto set of policies addressing varying preferences across multiple objectives. In this paper, we formalize the concept of generalization in MORL and how it can be evaluated. We then contribute a novel benchmark featuring diverse multi-objective domains with parameterized environment configurations to facilitate future studies in this area. Our baseline evaluations of state-of-the-art MORL algorithms on this benchmark reveals limited generalization capabilities, suggesting significant room for improvement. Our empirical findings also expose limitations in the expressivity of scalar rewards, emphasizing the need for multi-objective specifications to achieve effective generalization. We further analyzed the algorithmic complexities within current MORL approaches that could impede the transfer in performance from the single- to multiple-environment settings. This work fills a critical gap and lays the groundwork for future research that brings together two key areas in reinforcement learning: solving multi-objective decision-making problems and generalizing across diverse environments. We make our code available at https://github.com/JaydenTeoh/MORL-Generalization.


From Occurrence to Consequence: A Comprehensive Data-driven Analysis of Building Fire Risk

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Building fires pose a persistent threat to life, property, and infrastructure, emphasizing the need for advanced risk mitigation strategies. This study presents a data-driven framework analyzing U.S. fire risks by integrating over one million fire incident reports with diverse fire-relevant datasets, including social determinants, building inventories, weather conditions, and incident-specific factors. By adapting machine learning models, we identify key risk factors influencing fire occurrence and consequences. Our findings show that vulnerable communities, characterized by socioeconomic disparities or the prevalence of outdated or vacant buildings, face higher fire risks. Incident-specific factors, such as fire origins and safety features, strongly influence fire consequences. Buildings equipped with fire detectors and automatic extinguishing systems experience significantly lower fire spread and injury risks. By pinpointing high-risk areas and populations, this research supports targeted interventions, including mandating fire safety systems and providing subsidies for disadvantaged communities. These measures can enhance fire prevention, protect vulnerable groups, and promote safer, more equitable communities.


Generalization of Video-Based Heart Rate Estimation Methods To Low Illumination and Elevated Heart Rates

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Heart rate is a physiological signal that provides information about an individual's health and affective state. Remote photoplethysmography (rPPG) allows the estimation of this signal from video recordings of a person's face. Classical rPPG methods make use of signal processing techniques, while recent rPPG methods utilize deep learning networks. Methods are typically evaluated on datasets collected in well-lit environments with participants at resting heart rates. However, little investigation has been done on how well these methods adapt to variations in illumination and heart rate. In this work, we systematically evaluate representative state-of-the-art methods for remote heart rate estimation. Specifically, we evaluate four classical methods and four deep learning-based rPPG estimation methods in terms of their generalization ability to changing scenarios, including low lighting conditions and elevated heart rates. For a thorough evaluation of existing approaches, we collected a novel dataset called CHILL, which systematically varies heart rate and lighting conditions. The dataset consists of recordings from 45 participants in four different scenarios. The video data was collected under two different lighting conditions (high and low) and normal and elevated heart rates. In addition, we selected two public datasets to conduct within- and cross-dataset evaluations of the rPPG methods. Our experimental results indicate that classical methods are not significantly impacted by low-light conditions. Meanwhile, some deep learning methods were found to be more robust to changes in lighting conditions but encountered challenges in estimating high heart rates. The cross-dataset evaluation revealed that the selected deep learning methods underperformed when influencing factors such as elevated heart rates and low lighting conditions were not present in the training set.


I Predict Therefore I Am: Is Next Token Prediction Enough to Learn Human-Interpretable Concepts from Data?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The remarkable achievements of large language models (LLMs) have led many to conclude that they exhibit a form of intelligence. This is as opposed to explanations of their capabilities based on their ability to perform relatively simple manipulations of vast volumes of data. To illuminate the distinction between these explanations, we introduce a novel generative model that generates tokens on the basis of human interpretable concepts represented as latent discrete variables. Under mild conditions, even when the mapping from the latent space to the observed space is non-invertible, we establish an identifiability result: the representations learned by LLMs through next-token prediction can be approximately modeled as the logarithm of the posterior probabilities of these latent discrete concepts, up to an invertible linear transformation. This theoretical finding not only provides evidence that LLMs capture underlying generative factors, but also strongly reinforces the linear representation hypothesis, which posits that LLMs learn linear representations of human-interpretable concepts. Empirically, we validate our theoretical results through evaluations on both simulation data and the Pythia, Llama, and DeepSeek model families.


Meta-Reinforcement Learning with Discrete World Models for Adaptive Load Balancing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We integrate a meta-reinforcement learning algorithm with the DreamerV3 architecture to improve load balancing in operating systems. This approach enables rapid adaptation to dynamic workloads with minimal retraining, outperforming the Advantage Actor-Critic (A2C) algorithm in standard and adaptive trials. It demonstrates robust resilience to catastrophic forgetting, maintaining high performance under varying workload distributions and sizes. These findings have important implications for optimizing resource management and performance in modern operating systems. By addressing the challenges posed by dynamic and heterogeneous workloads, our approach advances the adaptability and efficiency of reinforcement learning in real-world system management tasks.


Combining Local Symmetry Exploitation and Reinforcement Learning for Optimised Probabilistic Inference -- A Work In Progress

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Efficient probabilistic inference by variable elimination in graphical models requires an optimal elimination order. However, finding an optimal order is a challenging combinatorial optimisation problem for models with a large number of random variables. Most recently, a reinforcement learning approach has been proposed to find efficient contraction orders in tensor networks. Due to the duality between graphical models and tensor networks, we adapt this approach to probabilistic inference in graphical models. Furthermore, we incorporate structure exploitation into the process of finding an optimal order. Currently, the agent's cost function is formulated in terms of intermediate result sizes which are exponential in the number of indices (i.e., random variables). We show that leveraging specific structures during inference allows for introducing compact encodings of intermediate results which can be significantly smaller. By considering the compact encoding sizes for the cost function instead, we enable the agent to explore more efficient contraction orders. The structure we consider in this work is the presence of local symmetries (i.e., symmetries within a model's factors).


Exposing Product Bias in LLM Investment Recommendation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs), as a new generation of recommendation engines, possess powerful summarization and data analysis capabilities, surpassing traditional recommendation systems in both scope and performance. One promising application is investment recommendation. In this paper, we reveal a novel product bias in LLM investment recommendation, where LLMs exhibit systematic preferences for specific products. Such preferences can subtly influence user investment decisions, potentially leading to inflated valuations of products and financial bubbles, posing risks to both individual investors and market stability. To comprehensively study the product bias, we develop an automated pipeline to create a dataset of 567,000 samples across five asset classes (stocks, mutual funds, cryptocurrencies, savings, and portfolios). With this dataset, we present the bf first study on product bias in LLM investment recommendations. Our findings reveal that LLMs exhibit clear product preferences, such as certain stocks (e.g., `AAPL' from Apple and `MSFT' from Microsoft). Notably, this bias persists even after applying debiasing techniques. We urge AI researchers to take heed of the product bias in LLM investment recommendations and its implications, ensuring fairness and security in the digital space and market.


Transferring Extreme Subword Style Using Ngram Model-Based Logit Scaling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present an ngram model-based logit scaling technique that effectively transfers extreme subword stylistic variation to large language models at inference time. We demonstrate its efficacy by tracking the perplexity of generated text with respect to the ngram interpolated and original versions of an evaluation model. Minimizing the former measure while the latter approaches the perplexity of a text produced by a target author or character lets us select a sufficient degree of adaptation while retaining fluency.