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A Hybrid Game-Theory and Deep Learning Framework for Predicting Tourist Arrivals via Big Data Analytics and Opinion Leader Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the era of Industry 5.0, data - driven decision - making has become indispensable for optimizing systems across Industrial Engineering. This paper addresses the value of big data analytics by proposing a novel non - linear hybrid approach for forecasting international tourist arrivals in two different contexts: (i) arrivals to Hong Kong from five major source nations (pre - COVID - 19), and (ii) arrivals t o Sanya in Hainan province, China (post - COVID - 19). The method integrates multiple sources of Internet big data and employs an innovative game theory - based algorithm to identify opinion leaders on social media platforms. Subsequently, nonstationary attribut es in tourism demand data are managed through Empirical Wavelet Transform (EWT), ensuring refined time - frequency analysis. Finally, a memory - aware Stacked Bi - directional Long Short - Term Memory (Stacked BiLSTM) network is used to generate accurate demand fo recasts. Experimental results demonstrate that this approach outperforms existing state - of - the - art techniques and remains robust under dynamic and volatile conditions, highlighting its applicability to broader Industrial Engineering domains -- such as logisti cs, supply chain management, and production planning -- where forecasting and resource allocation are key challenges. By merging advanced Deep Learning (DL), time - frequency analysis, and social media insights, the proposed framework showcases how large - scale data can elevate the quality and efficiency of decision - making processes.


An Explainable Transformer Model for Alzheimer's Disease Detection Using Retinal Imaging

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder that affects millions worldwide. In the absence of effective treatment options, early diagnosis is crucial for initiating management strategies to delay disease onset and slow down its progression. In this study, we propose Retformer, a novel transformer-based architecture for detecting AD using retinal imaging modalities, leveraging the power of transformers and explainable artificial intelligence. The Retformer model is trained on datasets of different modalities of retinal images from patients with AD and age-matched healthy controls, enabling it to learn complex patterns and relationships between image features and disease diagnosis. To provide insights into the decision-making process of our model, we employ the Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping algorithm to visualize the feature importance maps, highlighting the regions of the retinal images that contribute most significantly to the classification outcome. These findings are compared to existing clinical studies on detecting AD using retinal biomarkers, allowing us to identify the most important features for AD detection in each imaging modality. The Retformer model outperforms a variety of benchmark algorithms across different performance metrics by margins of up to 11\.


VaxPulse: Monitoring of Online Public Concerns to Enhance Post-licensure Vaccine Surveillance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The recent vaccine-related infodemic has amplified public concerns, highlighting the need for proactive misinformation management. We describe how we enhanced the reporting surveillance system of Victoria's vaccine safety service, SAEFVIC, through the incorporation of new information sources for public sentiment analysis, topics of discussion, and hesitancies about vaccinations online. Using VaxPulse, a multi-step framework, we integrate adverse events following immunisation (AEFI) with sentiment analysis, demonstrating the importance of contextualising public concerns. Additionally, we emphasise the need to address non-English languages to stratify concerns across ethno-lingual communities, providing valuable insights for vaccine uptake strategies and combating mis/disinformation. The framework is applied to real-world examples and a case study on women's vaccine hesitancy, showcasing its benefits and adaptability by identifying public opinion from online media.


Four Shades of Life Sciences: A Dataset for Disinformation Detection in the Life Sciences

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Disseminators of disinformation often seek to attract attention or evoke emotions - typically to gain influence or generate revenue - resulting in distinctive rhetorical patterns that can be exploited by machine learning models. In this study, we explore linguistic and rhetorical features as proxies for distinguishing disinformative texts from other health and life-science text genres, applying both large language models and classical machine learning classifiers. Given the limitations of existing datasets, which mainly focus on fact checking misinformation, we introduce Four Shades of Life Sciences (FSoLS): a novel, labeled corpus of 2,603 texts on 14 life-science topics, retrieved from 17 diverse sources and classified into four categories of life science publications. The source code for replicating, and updating the dataset is available on GitHub: https://github.com/EvaSeidlmayer/FourShadesofLifeSciences


Automated Grading of Students' Handwritten Graphs: A Comparison of Meta-Learning and Vision-Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--With the rise of online learning, the demand for efficient and consistent assessment in mathematics has significantly increased over the past decade. Machine Learning (ML), particularly Natural Language Processing (NLP), has been widely used for autograding student responses, particularly those involving text and/or mathematical expressions. However, there has been limited research on autograding responses involving students' handwritten graphs, despite their prevalence in Science, T echnology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) curricula. In this study, we implement multimodal meta-learning models for autograding images containing students' handwritten graphs and text. We further compare the performance of Vision Large Language Models (VLLMs) with these specially trained meta-learning models. Our results, evaluated on a real-world dataset collected from our institution, show that the best-performing meta-learning models outperform VLLMs in 2-way classification tasks. In contrast, in more complex 3-way classification tasks, the best-performing VLLMs slightly outperform the meta-learning models. While VLLMs show promising results, their reliability and practical applicability remain uncertain and require further investigation. S online education has gained popularity, the need for efficient and scalable methods of automatically grading and assessing student work has become increasingly important. Automated grading offers several advantages, including scalability, time efficiency, grading consistency, and immediate feedback. Early research on automated grading primarily focused on closed-ended questions, such as multiple-choice and fill-in-the-blank questions, where responses could be easily verified using rule-based systems [1], [2].


Efficient Perplexity Bound and Ratio Matching in Discrete Diffusion Language Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

While continuous diffusion models excel in modeling continuous distributions, their application to categorical data has been less effective. Recent work has shown that ratio-matching through score-entropy within a continuous-time discrete Markov chain (CTMC) framework serves as a competitive alternative to autoregressive models in language modeling. To enhance this framework, we first introduce three new theorems concerning the KL divergence between the data and learned distribution. Our results serve as the discrete counterpart to those established for continuous diffusion models and allow us to derive an improved upper bound of the perplexity. Second, we empirically show that ratio-matching performed by minimizing the denoising cross-entropy between the clean and corrupted data enables models to outperform those utilizing score-entropy with up to 10% lower perplexity/generative-perplexity, and 15% faster training steps. To further support our findings, we introduce and evaluate a novel CTMC transition-rate matrix that allows prediction refinement, and derive the analytic expression for its matrix exponential which facilitates the computation of conditional ratios thus enabling efficient training and generation.


High-Dimensional Learning in Finance

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent advances in machine learning have shown promising results for financial prediction using large, over-parameterized models. This paper provides theoretical foundations and empirical validation for understanding when and how these methods achieve predictive success. I examine two key aspects of high-dimensional learning in finance. First, I prove that within-sample standardization in Random Fourier Features implementations fundamentally alters the underlying Gaussian kernel approximation, replacing shift-invariant kernels with training-set dependent alternatives. Second, I establish information-theoretic lower bounds that identify when reliable learning is impossible no matter how sophisticated the estimator. A detailed quantitative calibration of the polynomial lower bound shows that with typical parameter choices, e.g., 12,000 features, 12 monthly observations, and R-square 2-3%, the required sample size to escape the bound exceeds 25-30 years of data--well beyond any rolling-window actually used. Thus, observed out-of-sample success must originate from lower-complexity artefacts rather than from the intended high-dimensional mechanism.


Sequential Regression Learning with Randomized Algorithms

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper presents ``randomized SINDy", a sequential machine learning algorithm designed for dynamic data that has a time-dependent structure. It employs a probabilistic approach, with its PAC learning property rigorously proven through the mathematical theory of functional analysis. The algorithm dynamically predicts using a learned probability distribution of predictors, updating weights via gradient descent and a proximal algorithm to maintain a valid probability density. Inspired by SINDy (Brunton et al. 2016), it incorporates feature augmentation and Tikhonov regularization. For multivariate normal weights, the proximal step is omitted to focus on parameter estimation. The algorithm's effectiveness is demonstrated through experimental results in regression and binary classification using real-world data.


Perception, Reason, Think, and Plan: A Survey on Large Multimodal Reasoning Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reasoning lies at the heart of intelligence, shaping the ability to make decisions, draw conclusions, and generalize across domains. In artificial intelligence, as systems increasingly operate in open, uncertain, and multimodal environments, reasoning becomes essential for enabling robust and adaptive behavior. Large Multimodal Reasoning Models (LMRMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm, integrating modalities such as text, images, audio, and video to support complex reasoning capabilities and aiming to achieve comprehensive perception, precise understanding, and deep reasoning. As research advances, multimodal reasoning has rapidly evolved from modular, perception-driven pipelines to unified, language-centric frameworks that offer more coherent cross-modal understanding. While instruction tuning and reinforcement learning have improved model reasoning, significant challenges remain in omni-modal generalization, reasoning depth, and agentic behavior. To address these issues, we present a comprehensive and structured survey of multimodal reasoning research, organized around a four-stage developmental roadmap that reflects the field's shifting design philosophies and emerging capabilities. First, we review early efforts based on task-specific modules, where reasoning was implicitly embedded across stages of representation, alignment, and fusion. Next, we examine recent approaches that unify reasoning into multimodal LLMs, with advances such as Multimodal Chain-of-Thought (MCoT) and multimodal reinforcement learning enabling richer and more structured reasoning chains. Finally, drawing on empirical insights from challenging benchmarks and experimental cases of OpenAI O3 and O4-mini, we discuss the conceptual direction of native large multimodal reasoning models (N-LMRMs), which aim to support scalable, agentic, and adaptive reasoning and planning in complex, real-world environments.


Model Compression using Progressive Channel Pruning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--In this work, we propose a simple but effective channel pruning framework called Progressive Channel Pruning (PCP) to accelerate Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). In contrast to the existing channel pruning methods that prune channels only once per layer in a layer-by-layer fashion, our new progressive framework iteratively prunes a small number of channels from several selected layers, which consists of a three-step attempting-selecting-pruning pipeline in each iteration. In the attempting step, we attempt to prune a pre-defined number of channels from one layer by using any existing channel pruning methods and estimate the accuracy drop for this layer based on the labelled samples in the validation set. In the selecting step, based on the estimated accuracy drops for all layers, we propose a greedy strategy to automatically select a set of layers that will lead to less overall accuracy drop after pruning these layers. In the pruning step, we prune a small number of channels from these selected layers. We further extend our PCP framework to prune channels for the deep transfer learning methods like Domain Adversarial Neural Network (DANN), in which we effectively reduce the data distribution mismatch in the channel pruning process by using both labelled samples from the source domain and pseudo-labelled samples from the target domain. Our comprehensive experiments on two benchmark datasets demonstrate that our PCP framework outperforms the existing channel pruning approaches under both supervised learning and transfer learning settings. HILE deep learning technologies have been successfully used for many computer vision tasks, it is still a challenging task to deploy deep neural networks on mobile devices due to tight computation resources and limited battery power. Several model compression approaches (see Section II for more details) have been recently developed to deploy deep models on resource-constrained devices, among which channel pruning technologies are attracting increasing attention as these technologies are often efficient on both CPUs and GPUs without requiring special implementation. In this work, we propose a new iterative channel pruning framework called Progressive Channel Pruning (PCP) for model compression under both supervised and transfer learning settings. Jinyang Guo, Weichen Zhang, Wanli Ouyang and Dong Xu are with the School of Electrical and Information Engineering, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2008 Australia.