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Meta-Inverse Reinforcement Learning for Mean Field Games via Probabilistic Context Variables

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Designing suitable reward functions for numerous interacting intelligent agents is challenging in real-world applications. Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) in mean field games (MFGs) offers a practical framework to infer reward functions from expert demonstrations. While promising, the assumption of agent homogeneity limits the capability of existing methods to handle demonstrations with heterogeneous and unknown objectives, which are common in practice. To this end, we propose a deep latent variable MFG model and an associated IRL method. Critically, our method can infer rewards from different yet structurally similar tasks without prior knowledge about underlying contexts or modifying the MFG model itself. Our experiments, conducted on simulated scenarios and a real-world spatial taxi-ride pricing problem, demonstrate the superiority of our approach over state-of-the-art IRL methods in MFGs.


Designing Gaze Analytics for ELA Instruction: A User-Centered Dashboard with Conversational AI Support

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Eye-tracking offers rich insights into student cognition and engagement, but remains underutilized in classroom-facing educational technology due to challenges in data interpretation and accessibility. In this paper, we present the iterative design and evaluation of a gaze-based learning analytics dashboard for English Language Arts (ELA), developed through five studies involving teachers and students. Guided by user-centered design and data storytelling principles, we explored how gaze data can support reflection, formative assessment, and instructional decision-making. Our findings demonstrate that gaze analytics can be approachable and pedagogically valuable when supported by familiar visualizations, layered explanations, and narrative scaffolds. We further show how a conversational agent, powered by a large language model (LLM), can lower cognitive barriers to interpreting gaze data by enabling natural language interactions with multimodal learning analytics. We conclude with design implications for future EdTech systems that aim to integrate novel data modalities in classroom contexts.


The distribution of calibrated likelihood functions on the probability-likelihood Aitchison simplex

arXiv.org Machine Learning

While calibration of probabilistic predictions has been widely studied, this paper rather addresses calibration of likelihood functions. This has been discussed, especially in biometrics, in cases with only two exhaustive and mutually exclusive hypotheses (classes) where likelihood functions can be written as log-likelihood-ratios (LLRs). After defining calibration for LLRs and its connection with the concept of weight-of-evidence, we present the idempotence property and its associated constraint on the distribution of the LLRs. Although these results have been known for decades, they have been limited to the binary case. Here, we extend them to cases with more than two hypotheses by using the Aitchison geometry of the simplex, which allows us to recover, in a vector form, the additive form of the Bayes' rule; extending therefore the LLR and the weight-of-evidence to any number of hypotheses. Especially, we extend the definition of calibration, the idempotence, and the constraint on the distribution of likelihood functions to this multiple hypotheses and multiclass counterpart of the LLR: the isometric-log-ratio transformed likelihood function. This work is mainly conceptual, but we still provide one application to machine learning by presenting a non-linear discriminant analysis where the discriminant components form a calibrated likelihood function over the classes, improving therefore the interpretability and the reliability of the method.


Can LLMs Lie? Investigation beyond Hallucination

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities across a variety of tasks, but their increasing autonomy in real-world applications raises concerns about their trustworthiness. While hallucinations-unintentional falsehoods-have been widely studied, the phenomenon of lying, where an LLM knowingly generates falsehoods to achieve an ulterior objective, remains underexplored. In this work, we systematically investigate the lying behavior of LLMs, differentiating it from hallucinations and testing it in practical scenarios. Through mechanistic interpretability techniques, we uncover the neural mechanisms underlying deception, employing logit lens analysis, causal interventions, and contrastive activation steering to identify and control deceptive behavior. We study real-world lying scenarios and introduce behavioral steering vectors that enable fine-grained manipulation of lying tendencies. Further, we explore the trade-offs between lying and end-task performance, establishing a Pareto frontier where dishonesty can enhance goal optimization. Our findings contribute to the broader discourse on AI ethics, shedding light on the risks and potential safeguards for deploying LLMs in high-stakes environments. Code and more illustrations are available at https://llm-liar.github.io/


Lessons Learned from Deploying Adaptive Machine Learning Agents with Limited Data for Real-time Cell Culture Process Monitoring

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study explores the deployment of three machine learning (ML) approaches for real-time prediction of glucose, lactate, and ammonium concentrations in cell culture processes, using Raman spectroscopy as input features. The research addresses challenges associated with limited data availability and process variability, providing a comparative analysis of pretrained models, just-in-time learning (JITL), and online learning algorithms. Two industrial case studies are presented to evaluate the impact of varying bioprocess conditions on model performance. The findings highlight the specific conditions under which pretrained models demonstrate superior predictive accuracy and identify scenarios where JITL or online learning approaches are more effective for adaptive process monitoring. This study also highlights the critical importance of updating the deployed models/agents with the latest offline analytical measurements during bioreactor operations to maintain the model performance against the changes in cell growth behaviours and operating conditions throughout the bioreactor run. Additionally, the study confirms the usefulness of a simple mixture-of-experts framework in achieving enhanced accuracy and robustness for real-time predictions of metabolite concentrations based on Raman spectral data. These insights contribute to the development of robust strategies for the efficient deployment of ML models in dynamic and changing biomanufacturing environments.



Lawyer caught using AI-generated false citations in court case penalised in Australian first

The Guardian

A Victorian lawyer has become the first in Australia to face professional sanctions for using artificial intelligence in a court case, being stripped of his ability to practise as a principal lawyer after AI generated false citations that he had failed to verify. Guardian Australia reported in October last year that in a 19 July 2024 hearing, the anonymous solicitor representing a husband in a dispute between a married couple provided the court with a list of prior cases that had been requested by Justice Amanda Humphreys in relation to an enforcement application in the case. When Humphreys returned to her chambers, she said in a ruling that neither herself nor her associates were able to identify the cases in the list. When the matter returned to court the lawyer confirmed that the list had been prepared using legal software that utilised AI. He acknowledged he did not verify the accuracy of the information before submitting it to the court.


Semi-Supervised Bayesian GANs with Log-Signatures for Uncertainty-Aware Credit Card Fraud Detection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present a novel deep generative semi-supervised framework for credit card fraud detection, formulated as time series classification task. As financial transaction data streams grow in scale and complexity, traditional methods often require large labeled datasets, struggle with time series of irregular sampling frequencies and varying sequence lengths. To address these challenges, we extend conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for targeted data augmentation, integrate Bayesian inference to obtain predictive distributions and quantify uncertainty, and leverage log-signatures for robust feature encoding of transaction histories. We introduce a novel Wasserstein distance-based loss to align generated and real unlabeled samples while simultaneously maximizing classification accuracy on labeled data. Our approach is evaluated on the BankSim dataset, a widely used simulator for credit card transaction data, under varying proportions of labeled samples, demonstrating consistent improvements over benchmarks in both global statistical and domain-specific metrics. These findings highlight the effectiveness of GAN-driven semi-supervised learning with log-signatures for irregularly sampled time series and emphasize the importance of uncertainty-aware predictions.


FBMS: An R Package for Flexible Bayesian Model Selection and Model Averaging

arXiv.org Machine Learning

At its core, the package implements an efficient Mode Jumping Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MJMCMC) algorithm, designed to improve mixing in multi-modal posterior landscapes within Bayesian generalized linear models. In addition, it provides a genetically modified MJMCMC (GMJMCMC) algorithm that introduces nonlinear feature generation, thereby enabling the estimation of Bayesian generalized nonlinear models (BGNLMs). Within this framework, the algorithm maintains and updates populations of transformed features, computes their posterior probabilities, and evaluates the posteriors of models constructed from them. We demonstrate the effective use of FBMS for both inferential and predictive modeling in Gaussian regression, focusing on different instances of the BGNLM class of models. Furthermore, through a broad set of applications, we illustrate how the methodology can be extended to increasingly complex modeling scenarios, extending to other response distributions and mixed effect models.


Multiple LLM Agents Debate for Equitable Cultural Alignment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) need to adapt their predictions to diverse cultural contexts to benefit diverse communities across the world. While previous efforts have focused on single-LLM, single-turn approaches, we propose to exploit the complementary strengths of multiple LLMs to promote cultural adaptability. We introduce a Multi-Agent Debate framework, where two LLM-based agents debate over a cultural scenario and collaboratively reach a final decision. We propose two variants: one where either LLM agents exclusively debate and another where they dynamically choose between self-reflection and debate during their turns. We evaluate these approaches on 7 open-weight LLMs (and 21 LLM combinations) using the NormAd-ETI benchmark for social etiquette norms in 75 countries. Experiments show that debate improves both overall accuracy and cultural group parity over single-LLM baselines. Notably, multi-agent debate enables relatively small LLMs (7-9B) to achieve accuracies comparable to that of a much larger model (27B parameters).